NL200 Monster draw on the flop, worth the chase?

[eisanm]

Any comments? I figured that if if was profitable for me it'd be marginal, so I'd rather fold and not take the risk (the risk of wrongly having estimated it to be profitable).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($26.65)
UTG ($26.55)
UTG+1 ($26.96)
MP1 ($26.65)
MP2 ($22.40)
MP3 ($28.37)
Hero ($26.30)
Button ($25.35)
SB ($29.92)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.35) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $3</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls $3, BB folds, UTG calls $25.30 (All-In), UTG+1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $33.65
<font color="#009B00">Main Pot: $33.65, returned to UTG.</font>

eh, that's foldable, and callable, too. close either way, maybe sightly -EV

I call because I like gambling, if you don't, that's cool too

[sourbeaver]

Here's a plan for that hand. Assuming 25$ stacks for simplification.

Your move on the flop with a pot=5 could be raising to 12-15, let's pick 12 for the example.

You make it 12 (pot now 17), not knowing that UTG pushes.
If UTG pushes 25, the pot will be 42, not even including action between pusher and you, so you have a very easy call getting ~3.3:1 (you are better than that against a set and two-pair, he might even turn top pair once in a while).

If there's action between the pusher and you the pot grows more attractive and so does your EV (your pot equity will go down a little with more than 1 opponent, but not dramatically).

The move has two advantages + image considerations. You get hands like AJ, A9, J9 to commit right now to the pot (as opposed to when a 3rd heart falls) and you price yourself in for your mega-draw. The way I see it, this strategy in this given spot is pretty much non-exploitable.

If you get a flat call, the pot will stand at ~30 and you'll have 13 left. By making 15 instead of 12, the pot would be at ~36 with you having 10 left, making the turn push automatic whatever peels off (except if, god forbid, the board pairs).