Monster Hand, Fishy Game

[vmacosta]

CA B&M $2/$2/$3 NLH ($2 on button)
Usually 5-6 see the flop and most are not that deep ($200-500)
Hero has $1100
Villain is SB ($1000)
3 limpers and hero is 2 off button with:
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero calls ($3)
8 limpers ($24 in pot) see a flop of:
3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Vilain checks, BB checks, UTG bets $10, UTG+1 calls, one fold, hero makes it $40, two folds, SB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds ($104 in pot)
Turn is:
J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain bets $70, hero calls
($244 in pot)
River is
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets $100 (~$800 behind), hero??

Comments on all streets appreciated. Only read on villain is that he was playing very straightforward until he raised 5 limpers (~$20 pot) to $40 and showed 72o when everyone folded about 1/2 hr earlier. Thanks

[meow_meow]

I'm just flat calling, because if you raise another 2-300 and he come back all-in, you have a very difficult decision.

[btetreau]

I don't think you can get away from this one - I would call. The price is pretty good and only a 67 has you beat. That is possible, but I think that you'll see this from a flopped set often enough to make it worth it.

The river bet is too small for them to have something like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , - I think that most people who are going to try to buy the pot at that point would bet more.

[aexchange]

with the second nuts, i'm raising to about 3/4 the size of the pot.

i think flat calling here is maybe the worst thing you can do. you're ahead of everything but 6/7. i'd raise and expect to see trips, two pair, or even a busted flush draw.

[ckff93]

I think I'm going to have to agree with the call here. Villian may be playing a 67 suited, just not the suits on the board. The preflop money makes taking a chance with it worthwhile. If I had the 67, I would have played it stronger, but if Villain decided to slow down because of the flush draw then the big bet on the river makes sense. However, you could have same hand or be beating two pair (same pre-flop logic, just lower cards), so go ahead and give it a call.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
with the second nuts, i'm raising to about 3/4 the size of the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is what my first instinct was and I really was fairly suspicious of him being on a stone bluff (why didn't he C/R the turn?). But the problem is, what hands does he call a big raise with? Realize that after he bets $100, the pot has nearly $350 so a pot-size raise forces him to part with nearly all his chips. Keep the comments coming, they are very good. I am also intereted on thoughts about the flop and turn.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
The preflop money makes taking a chance with it worthwhile.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think any player in this game will fold the 67 PF.
In a game of this structure, where a limp costs $3 but the big stacks have over 1K, I think it is always right to call with 67s and even 67o. In the SB (as villain was) it is correct to call with any 2 and happily so!

[aexchange]

[ QUOTE ]
This is what my first instinct was and I really was fairly suspicious of him being on a stone bluff (why didn't he C/R the turn?). But the problem is, what hands does he call a big raise with? Realize that after he bets $100, the pot has nearly $350 so a pot-size raise forces him to part with nearly all his chips. Keep the comments coming, they are very good. I am also intereted on thoughts about the flop and turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

the more i study this hand, the more i think he backdoored his way into two pair. i think the flop raise was fine. turn you need to raise more to at least get an idea of where you are. all the betting seems fairly normal until the river when he makes a small bet proportionally into the pot.

on the river, it depends on what your goals are. is your goal to control the size of the pot? if so, call down. if you are trying to build the pot b/c you believe you have the best hand, then you have to raise in that spot. if it pot commits him, it pot commits him.

i could be completely wrong though.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is what my first instinct was and I really was fairly suspicious of him being on a stone bluff (why didn't he C/R the turn?). But the problem is, what hands does he call a big raise with? Realize that after he bets $100, the pot has nearly $350 so a pot-size raise forces him to part with nearly all his chips. Keep the comments coming, they are very good. I am also intereted on thoughts about the flop and turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

turn you need to raise more to at least get an idea of where you are.

[/ QUOTE ]
For the record, I flat-called his $70 turn lead. Should I have raised? Doesn't this turn-lead seem very suspicous? I really thought I was either beat (but with outs to the nut flush) or way ahead (perhaps he had a pair and a flush/straght draw) which is why I flat called-I agree that it makes the river tougher though.

[MuckerFish]

pre flop/ flop seem fine. Villian firing out on the turn seems weird. If he was slow playing a big hand and you being the aggressor on the flop, why didn't he check again to you on the turn trying to let you hang yourself? Anyway, with only the third nuts(Behind 6-7 and the freaky 2-6) and the nut flush draw and the straight flush draw, I'm raising the pot here. If he comes over the top with the push I'd call with your hand and the redraws. (Anyone fold to a push here and why?, I think the math seems pretty close - thanks)
As it played, the river seems a little more like a blocking bet than a value bet. If you were really afraid of being up against the 67, a call here is fine. I think a call is fine regardless, because if you raise it seems like you are only getting called by a better hand anyway.