How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

[jwvdcw]

Thinking about Hellmuth's 4-1 comment, I ask this question:

First hand of the tourney. If you take some of the best players in the world like Lederer, Bruson, Ivey, Hellmuth, etc. told them what everyone at the table had for this hand. If a person went all in and the superstar pro was a 2-1 favorite, would he call? What about a 70% favorite? How much of a favorite do you think the top pros would have to be in order to call all in on the very first hand of the tourney.

Or heres another somewhat similar question(perhaps Annie or Barry can chime in here): You hold QQ on the very first hand of the WSOP. Some unknown internet guy goes all in from EP. Do you fold? What about if you hold KK in the same situation?

[TimTimSalabim]

Even if you knew you were a 4-1 favorite, you would still have to fold if you knew that you had a 90% chance to reach 2x your initial stack before you go bust, by not taking such gambles early on. But if statistically you know that you're only about 70% to reach 2x playing conservatively (and I assume a top pro would have a decent estimate of what this figure is), then you should take the 80% gamble right off the bat.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you knew you were a 4-1 favorite, you would still have to fold if you knew that you had a 90% chance to reach 2x your initial stack before you go bust, by not taking such gambles early on. But if statistically you know that you're only about 70% to reach 2x playing conservatively (and I assume a top pro would have a decent estimate of what this figure is), then you should take the 80% gamble right off the bat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are there really people out there that are 90% favorites? That seems so high to me. That would mean folding aces preflop if somone bets all in. That would mean folding top flopped set if there is a flush draw out there that you put your opponent on and he moves all in. I can't imagine even the very best pros being that good...can they?

[leykis]

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813
Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187

At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding.

[fnurt]

This is mathematically the right way to look at it, but there is no way any player in the universe is close to a 90% favorite to double up.

I think Hellmuth's comment was just talk. I don't think there is any way he, or anyone else, passes up a 4-1 edge.

[aces961]

[ QUOTE ]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813
Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187

At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding.

[/ QUOTE ]



cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ah 1315168 76.81 391637 22.87 5499 0.32 0.770
7d 6d 391637 22.87 1315168 76.81 5499 0.32 0.230

[Ryner]

[ QUOTE ]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813
Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187

At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you wanted the worst case scenario with aces, it'd actually be middle suited connectors, something like 67 suited in a suit you dont have. Then aces are only (only?)around 77ish %.

Edit: Guess I was a little slow.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813
Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187

At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you fold Kings here? I'm by no means a world class player, but I am a long time winner at the $215 STTs online and at the big buy in multis, and folding Ks preflop boggles my mind. I've only folded Qs preflop three times and both of those were because it was near the bubble.

[leykis]

The list of hands other than Aces that I could put someone on who goes all-in in EP on the first hand of a big tourney does not include 67s. That is why I picked KK as the worst case. I know there are some maniacs out there but an all in preflop in this spot really limits the range of thier possible holdings.

[Smasharoo]

The list of hands other than Aces that I could put someone on who goes all-in in EP on the first hand of a big tourney does not include 67s.


Someone you've never seen play pushing from EP could have 23o.