Limit O8 flopped weak FH - Page 2

L0QTiS · #11 07-19-2005, 08:16 PM

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Omaha/8 (10 handed)
converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],
2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Hero calls,
UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2
calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls,
1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(7 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2
calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO
raises, Button folds, BB folds,
Hero ??? 

 For better or for worse, I decided to play this fast and aggressive. so... 

Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

 Ok, so CO probably hasn't made his hand yet, but what are the cold callers calling with? 

Turn: (9.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

River: (13.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)

 Terrible card... Now the low is enabled and my pot equity is cut in half. Given this, I intend on check/calling a single bet but I misclick the 'bet' button.

Yeah, some of you might say this would never happens in a live game, ok.. sure - but maybe you were going for your shades to avoid your opponents staring into your soul [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] and maybe you tipped your stack and a chip rolls off past the line. That's a bet the dealer claims - good thing you now have your shades on to veil your embarassment. 

Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises

 At this point, my betting error is confounded by the size of the pot, and I figure I simply have to call knowing I'm likely dead, and given the fact that I really have no reliable reads yet (first full orbit)... so 

Hero makes a final crying call, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 19.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 2h Ac 2d Jh (High: full house, twos full of nines).
MP3 has 7d 9c Ad 4d (Low: 6, 5, 4, 2, A | High: three of a kind, nines).
CO has 9d As 5h 3h (Low: 6, 5, 3, 2, A | High: full house, nines full of fives).
Outcome: CO wins 19.75 BB. 

 I'll post some further thoughts a little later, but feel free to continue with discussion/comments.

Windmilla · #12 07-20-2005, 03:13 AM

you see some pretty crazy stuff at the microlimits..... i'd call it down considering the limits

Buzz · #13 07-20-2005, 09:38 AM

Dave - Some would re-raise here, then lead out on the turn, and then lead on the river.

But I think that's overplaying the flopped (but lowest possible) full house.

How about simply calling? At first glance it looks like Hero is getting fantastic odds to call the raise, 14 to 1.

But wait. If Hero calls this raise, looking ahead, how does Hero play the third and fourth betting rounds? My thinking is that if Hero commits here, Hero should probably be in for the showdown. And my thinking is the prudent play, assuming Hero calls, is to check the third and probably fourth betting rounds (assuming CO bets on the third betting round).

So, looking ahead, my thinking is Hero is going to be stuck on both the third and fourth betting rounds. My thinking is Hero should check to CO - and then will be at the mercy of CO.

If CO already has a full house, or if CO makes a full house, Hero, having called the raise, is going to find it difficult to get out of the pot. (I would find it difficult).

So my thinking is Hero, by calling the raise, is not just committing one small bet. Hero is committing a check/call on the turn and another check/call on the river - five small bets in all. That's if CO (or another player) has or makes a full house.

But if nobody else makes a full house, then there may not be any bets for Hero to collect on the river, unless someone bluffs on the river.

Hero bet the flop and was called by UTG+1 and MP3. Do neither of them know how to play the game?? Even it neither does, one of them could still have a nine. If we put CO on A-9-X-Y for the raise, then there's a strong possibility UTG+1 or MP3 has the other nine. Or one of them could have an overpair or two, maybe kings and/or queens. There are lots of ways for Hero to be beaten here,

Basically, by calling the raise, and then being in the position of (prudently) checking the turn and river, Hero is chasing.

I don't like to be chasing in this game.

CO has made it tough by siezing the initiative - and alas, there's not much Hero can do about it. Hero could try re-raising, as Greg suggests, but re-raising is fraught with peril and might not work anyhow.

However, I like re-raising better than calling (and thus chasing).

One difficulty is Hero really doesn't know whether CO already has nines full or not. Another difficulty is when seven players see the flop and the flop is paired, there are more often than not multiple full houses on the river - and Hero will have the worst of them.

Hero may have the best hand now, immediately after the flop (or maybe not) - but I don't think Hero is favored to have the best hand on the river. Flopped underboats are a bit like flopped middle card straights. This is Omaha-8, the drawing game, the river game. The hand that's best on the flop is not necessarily best on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
his table image is one of a tight player

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe you. Not that it matters, but I wasn't referring to a possible tight player image in my previous post.

Note that "tight" and "weak/tight" have distinctly different meanings.

Buzz

gergery · #14 07-20-2005, 12:20 PM

I think what happened on this hand is exactly what you’d expect to happen: you were ahead on the flop and turn with a great equity position, and they sucked out. Vs. 2 opponents with a 9 you’ll win around 42% of the time and be putting in 33% of the money – good times. Winning 42% of the time on the turn means its odds on to lose the hand, so no surprise that you did. Winning 42% when putting in 33% of the money plus existing money in the pot means you make lots of money.

It’s a good thing that several opponents stayed in but didn’t raise. It means they don’t have quad 9s which is the only hand that should consider slowplaying. Many opponents with 92xx there should certainly raise since there hand is vulnerable, so not raising means it very likely your 3 opponents have: 9xxx, 9xxx, and no clue whatsoever. This is valuable information you get when you raise the flop here, but don’t get if you check-call.

And when the low hit on the river, I’d have checked and called one bet.

sy_or_bust · #15 07-20-2005, 03:17 PM

I like the 3-bet on the flop followed by a turn lead (especially with the low draw materializing) because I think you're usually ahead enough to make money on your flop bets. On the river my Hold 'Em sense says bet, but it seems 2nd best to check/calling. With a non-nut FH and the low out you're certainly splitting at best - I don't think risking 1 BB to win 1/2 BB without a lock on either end makes very much sense in O/8.

BTW, some great replies in this thread. Very helpful.

J_V · #16 07-20-2005, 04:28 PM

You should put as much money in as possible on the flop, value betting the entire way through the hand until you meet resistance. Check-calling the river is fine by me. But 3 betting the flop and leading the turn is a must.

J_V · #17 07-20-2005, 04:29 PM

Way too likely you are good. 99 or 92 is much less likely than a bare nine, IMO. Other provide gravy, the pot must be jammed and its not close at all.

J_V · #18 07-20-2005, 04:31 PM

River bet is very bad. You are right about check-calling.

J_V · #19 07-20-2005, 06:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You also wouldn’t mind if a weak 9 folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Never gonna happen if the guy has any clue. Hope you never fold a weak nine here.

Rest of your post is fantastic and dead on.

Buzz · #20 07-22-2005, 04:33 PM

Greg - Excellent post, as always.

[ QUOTE ]
Vs. 2 opponents with a 9 you’ll win around 42% of the time and be putting in 33% of the money – good times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... not quite, in my humble opinion, and for two reasons.

<ul type="square">(1) Low is unlikely, but possible. If you factor in the times when Hero would have to split with low, Hero’s fresh money odds, for the second set of cards shown above, assuming all three oponents would call on each betting round, dip to about 2.3 to 1, which is below the 2.854 to 1 Hero needs if Hero is not already drawing dead.

(2) Perhaps more importantly, I think Hero, if he plays after this flop, is pretty well committed to seeing the showdown and will probably pay the one small bet on the second betting round plus a large bet on the third betting round, plus a large bet on the fourth betting round (five small bets in all) to do so.

But I don’t think Hero will collect five small bets from all three opponents when Hero ends up with a winner. If his opponents all play well. Hero might only collect three bets, rather than five, from his opponents when he ends up with a winning hand - because there might not be a bet on the final betting round when Hero has a winner.[/list]
Above I wrote “if Hero is not already drawing dead.” Hero cannot know for certain he is not. I’ll agree it’s more likely he’s not. But it is the possibility that Hero will be out-drawn on the turn or river PLUS the possibility that CO already has Hero beaten that gives me pause. It is the combination of these that makes me feel very wary.

29XY or 99XY is not at all a far fetched hand for someone who posted and saw the flop for no raise to be playing - and in that case, Hero is drawing dead. And if CO has A9XY for the raise instead, then there is still the very reasonable possibility of CO (or UTG+2 or MP2) catching a higher full house than Hero. I do think it’s more likely that CO has A9XY (with no deuce or other nine) than 29XY or 99XY. But I don’t think Hero should entirely discount the possibility.

I don’t see how Hero can lead after having been raised on the flop. Why not? Because if Hero bets the turn, he may get raised again, and this time it will be more likely (though still not absolutely certain) that the opponent raising has a better full house (or quads).

Should Hero bet regardless of the turn card and then simply fold if raised? (rhetorical) I like that line of play if Hero is never going to play against these opponents again. Otherwise, Hero earns a “weak/tight” image.

Isn’t that exactly what Hero is doing if he folds to the raise after betting the flop?

Well... in a way yes, but it’s not quite the same in my mind as calling the raise, then betting the turn, and then folding to a subsequent raise. That would be “weak/tight” without a doubt. But betting this flop from early position and then folding to a raise might simply be trying a steal. It’s a subtle difference, I suppose.

Table bullies like to exploit (steal from) weak/tight opponents. Even players who are not exactly table bullies sometimes find it irresistable to exploit weak/tight opponents. I don’t think Hero wants any part of a weak/tight image. It’s hard to make that image work for you. Instead, with a weak/tight image, you come to be in the position of overcompensating by calling bets that can only be bluffs. (That’s just my opinion - been there, done that).

Hero is not playing Texas hold ‘em.
And Hero is not playing pot limit.
And Hero is not playing six-max.
Hero is playing in a full, limit, ring game.

At any rate, since Hero is out of position, I think Hero pays five bets when he loses, but may only collect three bets from each opponent when he wins. And that’s figuring no raising on the third or fourth betting rounds, and also no low. There could be raising which would make it tougher for Hero to play well, especially if low becomes possible. So Hero is not really getting three to one fresh money odds (except. perhaps, for this one call). Assuming Hero’s opponents play well, Hero is getting no better than 1.8 to 1 fresh money odds for the combined bets after the flop.

There’s some money already in the pot from the first betting round, and if no opponent already holds a full house or quads, and also if low does not become possible, that dead money tips the balance in favor of Hero calling.

But, in my humble opinion, you need to factor in the chance of low, and raises. And then, in addition, there is still the very viable possibility that Hero is already “drawing dead.”

Starting hands with low pairs simulate reasonably well. However under actual game conditions when you flop bottom set or an underboat in early position, you’re often damned if you bet it and damned if you don’t.

There’s one more point that may not matter to you (or Hero), but that does matter to me. This game is my hobby. I’m playing this game to enjoy myself. And it’s no damned fun at all for me to suffer through a pounding from an opponent representing a better hand than I have, even when I end up with a winner.

Just my opinion.

Buzz