Profit erased.

SomethingClever · #1 09-22-2004, 02:06 AM

Boy I had a bad session tonight. I had recouped from an earlier downslide only to see the profits melt away again.

I know my sample size is too small, blah blah blah. But I am murdering .5/1 and 1/2 over 18K hands now and I just can't seem to win at 2/4.

This month [in white]

.5/1, 3,909 hands, +289 BB
2/4, 2,540 hands, -25 BB


I think I made some pretty big mistakes in these hands. Please help.

Hand 1. Call turn and river? Or just give the hell up?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 19.50 BB
Main Pot: 19.50 BB, between CO, UTG and Hero.

Hand 2: Played as badly as possible, I think. Reads: UTG +1 is a loose idiot

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB
Main Pot: 10 BB, won by UTG+1.
Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to UTG+1.

Hand 3: I've clearly gone insane

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, CO calls, Button folds, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (6.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB
Main Pot: 8.25 BB, won by CO.
Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to CO.

Hand 4. Just call the river, stupid.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (9.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB
Main Pot: 15.75 BB, between MP1 and Hero.

joker122 · #2 09-22-2004, 02:24 AM

Hand 1: Folding is out of the question.

Hand 2: I think you can fold the turn against most players, or did you have odds for your 5 outter (I didn't do the math)? Actually, even if you did I doubt it's worth a call considering you don't hold the 9 or T of diamonds and you could also be against aces up (drawing to 2 outs).

Hand 3: I like it.

Hand 4: Yeah, just call the river I think.

edit - i just saw your read for UTG+1 in hand 2. Was he just loose or LAG? I'm assuming idiot means lag so the decision is alot closer. I think I like seeing the river against this type of player.

edit #2 - 18k hands really isn't alot at all, so there's no reason to believe you were a winning player at the micro limits. Please don't take that as an insult, it's just something to consider. My winrate at 2/4 was a ridiculous 5.4bb after 22k hands and I thought I was the best ever. I look back on my play and I wonder how I didn't go completely broke there.

sthief09 · #3 09-22-2004, 02:35 AM

I couldn't beat 2/4 for a while either. It's much more swingy than the smaller games.

illini99 · #4 09-22-2004, 02:55 AM

I know it isn't anywhere near conclusive, but isn't it likely that winning over 18k hands suggests that he is a winner. I mean, it does have some value, even if this gives the faintest hint that he is a winnning player at these limits. Is this sample of hands comparable to a rookie batter going 3 for his first 10 at bats in MLB or does it compare to that same rookie batting .330 over his first 200 at bats? While I think 200 at bats has little significance when looking at a 10-year veteran's career totals, those same 200 at bats are a lot more significant when they are your total sample.

joker122 · #5 09-22-2004, 03:11 AM

No, I mean 18k certainly hints at winning play, but it's not by any means conclusive. I think he is probably a winning player at these limits (I don't see how anyone couldn't be if they have 100+ posts here) but his winrate, which he implied was very good, is probably not his true winrate.

Don Ohnic · #6 09-22-2004, 04:13 AM

I think you will do fine at 2/4. But keep in mind to play your best, have fun and do not tilt. If you are getting concerned about the amount of money you are losing, step down and build a bigger bank roll and confidence. If you feel comfortable att 2/4 you will also win.

I do not think that your hands here represent major money losing mistakes. I do think you should call the river in hand 2 since you decided not to fold the turn. You are probably drawing to a two outer so you might fold the turn if your opponent isn't overly aggressive, in which case you should call him down, IMO.

And I think you should just call the river in hand 4. And I don't see anything wrong in hand 3. You take a shot at a small pot, get raised and decide to fold. Pretty straightforward, I think.

Fight luck and the money will come to you.

Don Ohnic
– representing aces!

bisonbison · #7 09-22-2004, 04:17 AM

.5/1, 3,909 hands, +289 BB

Oh, well in that case, how could you possibly lose?

balkii · #8 09-22-2004, 04:20 AM

i agree with all of jokers advice.

Guy McSucker · #9 09-22-2004, 04:56 AM

Hand 1: no problems

Hand 2: either fold on the turn or call on the river. If you're behind on the turn you have just about the odds to catch two pair, but your outs may not all be clean (against ace-x diamonds, a set, A9 etc). If you decide to call it has to be because of the chance you're ahead, and then you have to call the river too.

hand 3: everything but the preflop call looks okay to me. I think limping T9s UTG is a little loose. By the time you get to the river, you owe it to yourself to bluff at it.

hand 4: yeah, just call the river. Otherwise fine.

The mistakes you made in these hands were small. If that's the worst you do, you'll win eventually.

I'm currently struggling with the $5/10 6-max on Party, where I'm ahead a massive 16 big bets after 8000 hands. I keep pluggin away at it despite disheartening results because

- I see my opponents making terrible mistakes over and over again that I'm not making
- I can see that my own play is exploiting these mistakes
- I am aware that the swings in limit poker are very large and 10,000 hands is not enough to draw conclusions.

If you're playing better than the others, and if you've got a brain you probably are, keep playing and eventually you'll beat the game.

Guy.

SomethingClever · #10 09-22-2004, 11:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Oh, well in that case, how could you possibly lose?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm saying!

No, I'm kidding, but seriously, I feel like there's something different I need to do to beat the 2/4 games. What are your thoughts on these hands, bison?