25-50 commerce.....interesting decisions on all streets.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
with your reads and the way the hand went down, I think you really need to go for the CR on the river.

MP is most likely going to bet his prob. straight, and if not, there is a good chance martin will make a play at the pot with a busted flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. Given his description, I could see him checking and the higher the chance that he'll bet it, the higher the chance that he'll call as well. I don't think there's a good chance Martin will make a play into two players on this board with that action. Especially when one is a notorious checkraiser. And rbk's stack is not very deep at this point.

[ QUOTE ]
another is throw a $1.5k-2.5k bet on the river and let him call with the straight. even he isnt laying that down for that price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally I just push, but given the player's description I would have probably bet 2k. That's like announcing a boat and almost challenging them to fold, but it seems to work anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
btw how are the 5-10 and 10-20ish games there usually.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think all the games smaller than 10-20 are capped crap games. The 10-20 NL is the best game in the world.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
MP played it poorly. If he overbets the pot on the turn the button folds and now you have to make a decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure someone will do the exact math, but given the two turn calls and the river fold, MP might have played it fine.

[fsuplayer]

diablo-

do you think that the chances MP calls the push are better than the chance that either MP bets or martin pulls a move if king checks the river?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
diablo-

do you think that the chances MP calls the push are better than the chance that either MP bets or martin pulls a move if king checks the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think the chance that Martin puts any money in is slim, no matter what anyone else does. If it gets checked to him, I think he'll check and pray his turned top pair is miraculously good.

So, it comes down to MP. I don't think there's a high chance he calls a push. I basically think he's rarely going to bet more than he's going to call, but he'll check a lot too. So you might as well bet what you think he might call. That's why I like rbk's push better than a check here and prefer an obvious milky bet even more.

[cero_z]

Hi Diablo and rbk,

[ QUOTE ]
Normally I just push, but given the player's description I would have probably bet 2k.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly how much I'd bet; very hard to turn down 6 to 1 with a straight no matter how it looks. I assume that by, "given the player's description," you meant "very good player". But I think I'd bet about the same thing against a bad or average player, too, because I think there's such a good chance of getting 2000 called, and because the bad player is more likely to be in there with a weaker hand than a straight.

It seems obvious to me that a very good player like Martin, as well as a solid player like MP, will rarely if ever have just called on the flop with the nuts. I basically rule out 87 after the flop action for MP, and totally rule it out for the button.

[radioheadfan]

Bet $1000 on the river. MP will know you have him smoked but will pay to see your cards anyways.

I don't particularly care for the turn call given your reads and the caliber of your opposition. But given that you called and got lucky, make sure to slip that extra grand in your pocket on the river.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
diablo-

do you think that the chances MP calls the push are better than the chance that either MP bets or martin pulls a move if king checks the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think the chance that Martin puts any money in is slim, no matter what anyone else does. If it gets checked to him, I think he'll check and pray his turned top pair is miraculously good.

So, it comes down to MP. I don't think there's a high chance he calls a push. I basically think he's rarely going to bet more than he's going to call, but he'll check a lot too. So you might as well bet what you think he might call. That's why I like rbk's push better than a check here and prefer an obvious milky bet even more.

[/ QUOTE ]


fair enough, although i think the chances of martin making a play go down considerably once we find out that he has decent showdown potential.

the river here is one of the few places i might bet half my stack, bc the pot is so huge MP will call. yeah, i like that milk bet alot.

[Lawrence Ng]

Any solid players knows never to slow play a straight, so you are right to deduce that neither of your opponents have a nut straight on the flop based on how the action went. 3 way, especially with such deep stacks involved warrants playing a straight fast and furious which of course did not happen.

Having said this, your opponents mistake was also failing to realize you didn't have a straight as well based on the turn check. If you have 7-8, your turn check warrants giving a free card to a potential filler to the boat/flush which doesn't make sense at all even if you know one of the players has 34 in their hand.

I beleive over betting the pot on the turn here is the correct play especially with such deep stacks involved, provided you

a. may have the best hand.
b. force 34 to fold figuring he is drawing dead.
c. forcing the flush draws to really pay the price
d. you obviously have a good redraw even if you are called and are beat.

Lawrence

[creedofhubris]

Interesting hand, btw, thanks for posting.

[quix0tic]

The way the action went down, and the amount of money going in, your hand is made rather transparent by the river. Nothing you can do about this now and checking seems pretty much out of the question. When this much money is in with deep stacks and the amount behind is small, the best hand takes down the pot, meaning dekniff is smart enough to know a bluff is pretty useless. Pushing is clearly not a bad play as the majority of players call with a straight. If I give the guy respect however, I think I bet between 1.5 and 3k, basically just correlated with how good of a player I judge him to be. Also, does anyway else think about mucking k [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] here? Obviously if dekniff put the other guy on a lower flush it's a call but it seems unlikely he knew that.