Stars $650.00 Hand for Analysis - Page 2

Prime Time · #11 04-25-2005, 10:00 AM

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter

CO (t3825)
PGA71 (t3680)
SB (t2200)
BB (t3005)
UTG (t4912)
UTG+1 (t3900)
MP1 (t1270)
MP2 (t8088)
MP3 (t2360)

Preflop: PGA71 is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises to t150, 2 folds, PGA71 calls t150, 1 fold, BB raises to t400, MP2 folds, PGA71 calls t250.

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Flop: (t975) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t600, PGA71 raises to t1450,

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BB raises to t2605,

Now what? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Toro · #12 04-25-2005, 10:04 AM

Without a read that he's capable of this bluff, you're beat and you have to make a real tough laydown. More and more, I see players that won't lay down any pair in this situation. They put their opp on AK and stubbornly stay with that read. And sometimes they are right but usually they are beat.

Lurshy · #13 04-25-2005, 10:35 AM

I actually meant to say 'pushing the flop' in my prior response.

Still not certain what I would actually do once at this point in the hand though. I don't think I could fold here (maybe thats a problem). Without reads biasing me I probably do different things at different times. 1 in 4 call; 1 in 4 raise; 2 in 4 all-in.

May be a cop-out, but I believe in Mike Caro's concept that people can't be counted on doing the same thing each time in identical circumstances.

There are 6 hands I am really afraid of (AA-QQ and sets), and a bunch of hands I need protection from. There are few hands that I dominate. Tough spot.

Patrick Duffy · #14 04-25-2005, 11:32 AM

ugh...i think that thats the last thing anyone wanted to see...looks like youre beat here, id probably drop it...

Lurshy · #15 04-25-2005, 11:37 AM

I drop to the reraise

schwza · #16 04-25-2005, 11:38 AM

you have to call 1155. the total pot will be 6210 if you call, so you have to win 18.6% to make it breakeven. you're about 8% against QQ+ and 75% against AK. ignoring TT and other garbage, you're 18% to win if he has QQ+ 85% and AK 15%. i think you're looking at a big pair 90% here (i think AK almost always gives up), so it's a fold.

instead of raising the flop, how about a call (and then fold the turn)? you'd be giving a free 6 outer to AK, but you'd be saving a lot of chips against QQ+. you also risk getting moved off the best hand, but villain would have to commit his stack to fire a second barrel.

Lurshy · #17 04-25-2005, 11:51 AM

good points

Toro · #18 04-25-2005, 01:15 PM

Okay Pete, how did it all turn out?

Prime Time · #19 04-25-2005, 01:49 PM

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you have to call 1155. the total pot will be 6210 if you call, so you have to win 18.6% to make it breakeven. you're about 8% against QQ+ and 75% against AK. ignoring TT and other garbage, you're 18% to win if he has QQ+ 85% and AK 15%. i think you're looking at a big pair 90% here (i think AK almost always gives up), so it's a fold.

instead of raising the flop, how about a call (and then fold the turn)? you'd be giving a free 6 outer to AK, but you'd be saving a lot of chips against QQ+. you also risk getting moved off the best hand, but villain would have to commit his stack to fire a second barrel.

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I agree you have to call.
Also, level 2+3 thinking. I know what I have.
What does he have?
What does he think I have?
If you study the hand, my action screams monster, or Flush draw.
If he puts me on flush draw, he played it correctly w/ less than AA-QQ as stated.

Any thoughts?

tdizzle · #20 04-25-2005, 02:15 PM

I don't think your actions scream monster. You smooth called in position which may mean monster preflop, but when he popped it up by smooth calling again it is pretty safe to assume that you don't have AA or KK unless you are trying to get real cute here early on which is probably a mistake. Then by re-raising on the flop when it is all low cards that is a pretty standard move when you have position on someone. Also you jeapordized alot of your stack here on your raise without pushing all in.

On the topic of level 2 and 3 analysis it is pretty difficult with no reads and the fact that you smooth called preflop with JJ from an MP2 raiser. The BB might be trying a squeeze play seeing lots of weakness. However, after him re-raising you on the flop I think it is safe to say that he's pretty strong. Whether it is a big PP or 2 overs with a flush draw. It is pretty obvious that you are going to call getting 5.5 to 1 on your money so re-raising here is futile to try and steal the pot. Finally, I think that the BB thinks you are very weak because of your 2 smooth calls preflop unless you got really lucky and caught a set with 77.