Gambler's Fallacy-->Can I Call?

[jsnipes28]

I openraised on the button w/ 99 two orbits ago and he reraised to 20 and i folded. Last orbit i openraised the button w/ AQs to 4 and he reraised to 20 and i folded. And now this hand. I decided to call preflop because he is surely reraising me with less than AA,KK here. That being said i really hate him open-pushing the flop. But since he reraised preflop, indicative of great strength, and i called also indicating strength i don't see why he would be trying to push me out if he has AA,KK. I am playing with villain on another table and he seems to be a decent player (he's up at least) and hasn't done anything extremely out of line except his constant re-raising of my obvious blind-stealing attempts.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) 2+2 converter on zerodivide.cx [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

MP ($135.70)
CO ($81.15)
Hero ($113.45)
SB ($88.90)
BB ($158.40)
UTG ($24.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $16.

Flop: ($40.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $138.4 (All-In)</font>

[talcum]

I'd say the hands you're raising with aren't blind stealing attempts though he obviously thinks they are since he has come over the top every time. I don't think it is indicative of strength at all. The first time you might let it go but I would probably push over the top with AQ and definitely with the tens preflop against this guy.

[jsnipes28]

I was making a funny when i said that i was making obvious blind-stealing moves.
What's your rationale for pushing preflop? He's folding all hands that i am beating and calling with all hands that are beating me. This villain is not a maniac from what i have seen.
Edit: Berge, do you think a pretty decent player is trying to push me off of my hand here? Could this be AK, AQ whos pissed he didnt hit?

[aces_dad]

If he folds a worse hand then you win 20 and he stops re-raising your button opens. This is not a bad result given the recent history.

[Wayfare]

Given your history I don't mind making it $55 prelflop and folding to a raise.

[Guin]

To answer the question of calling I would have to say no. He could have Axs and has the flush draw and potentially two overcards. I believe that it would be +ev for him if you do call.... assuming he has the flush draw and two overcards.

I agree with Wayfare that the place to play the hand was preflop with a reraise but I would make it about 70 and I call a push.

I wonder how many other times this player has reraised to 20 preflop to any other player. Could you be labelled as weak tight or fishy to him? Overall what is your table image?

Guin

[FreakDaddy]

Considering the history, I stick it all-in pre-flop. He could be setting you up for this point, but I don't mind taking that chance here. As played, I fold the flop, although I don't like it.

[4_2_it]

You are going to have to pick a spot to make a stand against this guy. If he is doing this every time, then his range of hands is wide. This is a great flop for TT. You are only an underdog to two spade overcards. Hold your nose if you must, but call.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
I was making a funny when i said that i was making obvious blind-stealing moves.
What's your rationale for pushing preflop? He's folding all hands that i am beating and calling with all hands that are beating me. This villain is not a maniac from what i have seen.
Edit: Berge, do you think a pretty decent player is trying to push me off of my hand here? Could this be AK, AQ whos pissed he didnt hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's aware of your play, and now you're telling him that you can't keep coming over the top of you. Saying he's not bad, by over defending his blinds doesn't appear like he's good either. In fact I would have pushed with AQ, but that's just me.

[Delphin]

Ewww, I don't see how you can call. He may be on AK or AQ thinking his fold equity + gutshot + pair outs are good here against an overpair (he might rule out QQ-AA since you didn't reraise on the flop). He seems to have it in for you, so just wait until he does this and you have something better than an overpair.

The question I'm interested in is how you play the next hand against him when he does this. Is knowing he is capable of putting you to this decision on the flop enough to reraise all in preflop with TT next time?