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#61
11-30-2005, 09:33 PM
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Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
you're actually hitting on what I think was my biggest mistake in the hand. How would you feel if I bet 500 on the turn instead of 730, and then pushed the river?
also, I don't really understand the turn around in percpetion that everybody had here about his calling range. At first everybody says its really tight, now that we know im bluffing it includes 99/1010/JJ 80% of the time. 
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#62
11-30-2005, 09:40 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
Well...as somebody pointed out the last time I posted something like this, it's not 1 in 3. You have to pick it up 1 in 3 times that you do *not* have the best hand [/ QUOTE ] of course you're right there, that was me being careless. [ QUOTE ] Vs. a thinking player, he called 3/4 pot/almost half your stacks on a blank and is getting something like 2.5:1 on a river that changed nothing. If he played JJ this way vs. a LAG as a semi-trap/bluff catcher, he's not folding it now. (See Strassa's hand) Vs. a bad player, "I have JJ and I called the turn so I call the river". [/ QUOTE ] I understand this interpretaion even if I disagree with it. The thing is, when I asked about UTG calling ranges in my original post nobody mentioned that. Maybe thats my fault for not differentiating in the original post between what should he call with, and what will he call with. Still, it seems like you're arguing that he SHOULD call with JJ here, while in your original post you said he should fold a pair of Qs. Its not fair to change your mind now that you know what I have [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].
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#63
11-30-2005, 09:43 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
I think he had AK in part because he folded the river. I just meant MLG could have taken his stab on the turn, shut down when UTG called and still shown down a winner. [/ QUOTE ] You are suggesting a line that we all know now could be a good one. The problem is, the reason we know it would be good is because of how he reacted to the line I took. Not fair to use that information in determining the best way to play the hand.
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#64
11-30-2005, 09:46 PM
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Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
[ QUOTE ]
you're actually hitting on what I think was my biggest mistake in the hand. How would you feel if I bet 500 on the turn instead of 730, and then pushed the river? also, I don't really understand the turn around in percpetion that everybody had here about his calling range. At first everybody says its really tight, now that we know im bluffing it includes 99/1010/JJ 80% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Yup, I've noticed this, and that's why hand evalutation is so hard to do on any forum. I'll just say this, no move in poker can be judged by anyone except those who were there and could feel the aura of the hand. I rarely do things like what you did, but I think you had a solid handle on the situation.
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#65
11-30-2005, 09:55 PM
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Re: Results
Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. I said he *should* fold AQ/JJ/etc. (although I discount JJ pretty heavily in his range tbh). The question is what he *will* do with JJ -given- that he check/called that big a bet on the turn already. He obviously liked his hand then, so why would he change his mind now?
As far as *I* am concerned, JJ is not nearly enough of a hand on a flop like that to bluff catch 3 streets, but if somebody wants to do it that badly, I don't see them folding that river.
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#66
11-30-2005, 09:58 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
As far as *I* am concerned, JJ is not nearly enough of a hand on a flop like that to bluff catch 3 streets [/ QUOTE ] So if you were playing this hand with JJ and a flush draw you would....
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#67
11-30-2005, 10:03 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
You are suggesting a line that we all know now could be a good one. The problem is, the reason we know it would be good is because of how he reacted to the line I took. Not fair to use that information in determining the best way to play the hand. [/ QUOTE ] Nah. The way the hand plays out if I play it: I check the flop. Button probably checks. The turn is a 7 giving me a gutshot, it's checked to me (or the PFR underbets or something) and I bet or call. The PFR calls, I think 'hmm, either he has black something or other, or AK with the ace, I'm pretty much done' and check behind on the river/probably win the hand. It's obviously a much smaller pot, though, so given what we know your line has merit too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#69
11-30-2005, 10:11 PM
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Re: Results
yeah, I hear you and realistically he probably has AK here which i thought was pretty possible at the time. I just have a hard time believing that when so many people are talking about folding a Q im getting called by JJ/1010/99 so much. Then again, I like my play a lot better if i bet smaller on the turn leaving more stack to push on the river if i bet (and also losing less when I get cred).
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#70
11-30-2005, 10:27 PM
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Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
[ QUOTE ]
also, I don't really understand the turn around in percpetion that everybody had here about his calling range. At first everybody says its really tight, now that we know im bluffing it includes 99/1010/JJ 80% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] I said from the beginning that if he folded on the river, then he was chasing a flush. That's what fish do. So I've never changed my mind that he had Adxx.
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