I Just Called to Say How Much I Care - Page 5

SossMan · #41 11-29-2005, 09:52 PM

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If the above were true we should never bluff all-in because the times we are called it does us no good and the times we aren't called it does us no good.

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not to offend shania, but i think you are taking this too far. There are clearly other reasons to bluff all in (you know, little things like, WINNING THE POT )

MLG · #42 11-29-2005, 10:04 PM

clearly. here's my point. whether we end up showing a bluff is somewhat incidental to shania. In any given situation there is an optimal bluffing frequency (even if it is extremely small). Thats what shania is about. If your opponent thinks you are unlikely to bluff that bluffing frequency should be higher, if he thinks you are likely to bluff it should be lower, blahblahblah. What you have the times you are called in that situation is important only in so far as what your opponents will think of your range, which is how they perceive your shania, not what it actually is. This is kinda complicated and game theoretic, and i dont think im being clear about what i mean. I should probably make this stuff its own post.

adanthar · #43 11-30-2005, 03:13 AM

Yuck. Yuck yuck yuck.

OK, you call PF, fine. So you have one pair and you bet the red flop into 3 people as basically a bluff. I don't think you have much if any chance of picking it up outright, and the button folding doesn't do much for you because, position or no position, that whole line of thinking...you're already planning the second barrel of the bluff after you start with the first. You see where the problem with this is? It smacks of that really gross Barron VangorThoth hand in the magazine last month.

So you bet and get a call (unsurprising, someone has a diamond or a Q or *something*) and you get to the turn. I think your AdKx read might be correct but he could be slowplaying, could have AdQx (or QQ?), and you also picked up a gutshot. This is a gutsy bet but I don't hate it *if* you are so sure of the AdKx read that it's a value bet. Otherwise, you're firing half your stack on the second barrel and you just know there's gonna be a third.

Yay, river blank. Yay, he checks. Your 'bluff' here had better be with the best hand because he's not folding so much as red JJ, IMO. I don't hate this bet as much as the flop bet but it's pretty close.

I dunno man, I think you screwed this up on at least two streets.

beenben · #44 11-30-2005, 08:57 AM

w/o at othe replies---

he has a good draw that he's been trying to get to- A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] -x or maybe A3 or A5 or 24 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I don't think that even a bad player would slow play an overpair for this long, however, it's possible that he may have QQ or AQ, although I would've expected a check-raise on the flop. But then he's done things that you don't expect earlier.

You caught something short of the nuts that turned into a near-nut hand such as 53 or Q3 or A3 or 55 or 33. Or you have air and since he's shown so much weakness, and you think he's missed his draw, you're pushing, figuring he'll fold. He'll only call with a full house or TPTK or an overpair.

#45 11-30-2005, 10:47 AM

What really puzzles me about this hand is why, of all people, is the PFR check/calling? If he has the Ad, would he not lead this flop? If he paired the queen, would he not lead this flop? I'm having trouble putting villain on a hand other than maybe JdJ. If you've got a strong read he'll fold a marginal hand like two red jacks a large chunk of the time if you put the rest of your chips in, you've clearly got to do it.

Having said that, it takes balls to fire 3 shots.

MLG · #46 11-30-2005, 11:49 AM

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I don't think you have much if any chance of picking it up outright, and the button folding doesn't do much for you because, position or no position, that whole line of thinking...you're already planning the second barrel of the bluff after you start with the first.

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Obviously I don't make this flop bet often. Thing is on this particular hand I see two players who I have position on who it really looks to me like they have given up on their hand, and if they havent are likely to cr anyway and end the hand. I really thought the bet had a chance of winning close to the requisite 1/3 times, which is fine since i only bet 1/2 pot. Also, while I'm not planning on betting the turn when I make the flop bet, its certainly a possibility, but really I never expected to have the chance. If the guy behind me calls, I'm done, if the guy who likes to cr the turn calls, I'm done, and if anybody crs the flop, I'm done. The one outcome which might lead me to bet the turn happens...so I followed through (which I won't always do here).

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It smacks of that really gross Barron VangorThoth hand in the magazine last month.

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Well thats just mean and uncalled for.

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Your 'bluff' here had better be with the best hand because he's not folding so much as red JJ, IMO.

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Where does that come from? What leads you to believe he will call with these hands? This is a pretty important point because my bet is based on folding out 99/10/JJ with the draw. I really think he is folding these hands here (as he should).

MLG · #47 11-30-2005, 12:03 PM

One other question. In your original post you put a small chance of bluffing in my range of hands. What situations make that small percentage up? Are you saying that the times I'm bluffing in this spot are deffinitionally times I've screwed up the hand (and consequently while my bluffing frequency in this spot is small, it should be zero) or are there situations where bluffing would be correct....If so, what are those situations since you don't think this is one.

SossMan · #48 11-30-2005, 12:06 PM

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One other question. In your original post you put a small chance of bluffing in my range of hands. What situations make that small percentage up? Are you saying that the times I'm bluffing in this spot are deffinitionally times I've screwed up the hand (and consequently while my bluffing frequency in this spot is small, it should be zero) or are there situations where bluffing would be correct....If so, what are those situations since you don't think this is one.

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there is a big difference in a good player who is somewhat familiar with your game putting you one a big hand w/ that line and an unknown calling because 'i've got JJ'.

Melchiades · #49 11-30-2005, 12:09 PM

Villain definitly should fold red J's on the river, but he really should have folded them on the turn. Or bet the turn, or check-raised all in on the turn, or anything but check call.

MLG · #50 11-30-2005, 12:12 PM

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there is a big difference in a good player who is somewhat familiar with your game putting you one a big hand w/ that line and an unknown calling because 'i've got JJ'.

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absolutely true, although I doubt that I'd ever be in this spot against a good player. I'm not sure that answers the question I asked though. When you put me on a range, that range is for the spot I'm currently in...you know, what hands could I have in this spot given this action against this opponent. Maybe a bluff shouldnt be in my range, and my bluffing frequency should be zero on this turn/river, but im not sure thats what you're saying. Are you saying against a good player I should have some small % percentage here, but against an unknown it should be zero?