I Just Called to Say How Much I Care

[MLG]

where has he shown he's incapable of folding?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok here we go. I had 56 of spades. Preflop the call is ok, so is a fold. Here's what I saw on the flop. Preflop raiser checks, this seems like a give-up to me (or going for a cr with a big hand). Aggresive tricky player checks, and I think he bets the majority of the time here if he likes his hand. So, I actually think I have a pretty good chance to pick up the pot here. Plus I really want the button to fold here so I can play the rest of the hand in position. Well the button folds as planned, but the original raiser calls. WTF!? So its HU to the turn. He checks again, and now I try to put him on a hand. My gut says a badly played AK+flush draw or JJ/1010+flush draw. Still a chance he's being weird and slowplaying I guess, and also a chance of AQ /AA/KKwith or without hearts. Generally though I think he leads the flop with those, as he isn't really tricky. So I decide to fire again. Once again he calls. Well if he was slowplaying I doubt he's calling again there when it looks like I'm pretty committed to the pot. So the river blanks and he checks what i think is a missed draw 1 more time. Time to get him to fold JJ/1010/99 and hopefully maybe AQ/KQ although I doubt he's good enough to fold those. Then again I just dont see him checking any hand better than JJ on the flop. The fact is that its generally hard for me to be bluffing, but every once in a blue moon if you show up with air here it protects the vast vast majority of time when you have the flush or full house (which is generally what I'd play this way).

[/ QUOTE ]

meh. I don't think he's folding any queen. There are only 6 combos of red 99-JJ that this bet is trying to fold. There are a ton more combos of hands that you have showdown value against w/out having to risk 1k chips to drag the pot.
If you are trying to get shania value out of playing 56s this way, wouldn't you want to check, not bet?

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
where has he shown he's incapable of folding?

[/ QUOTE ] Well, you certainly put him to the ultimate test.

I think a better question to you is, where has he shown that he's capable of folding?

Also, I don't get this part of your explanation:

[ QUOTE ]
The fact is that its generally hard for me to be bluffing, but every once in a blue moon if you show up with air here it protects the vast vast majority of time when you have the flush or full house (which is generally what I'd play this way).

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you show your hand to the table after he folded? That's the only way I see of getting any benefit out of this.

[MLG]

The shania value is really in the turn bet. also, its 9 combos of those hands. also, I have a really hard time putting him on a Q here which is the whole reason I bet the turn at all.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
where has he shown he's incapable of folding?

[/ QUOTE ] Well, you certainly put him to the ultimate test.

I think a better question to you is, where has he shown that he's capable of folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a very valid question. After he calls you on the flop and turn, I just question the likelihood of him laying down here.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I don't get this part of your explanation:

[ QUOTE ]
The fact is that its generally hard for me to be bluffing, but every once in a blue moon if you show up with air here it protects the vast vast majority of time when you have the flush or full house (which is generally what I'd play this way).

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you show your hand to the table after he folded? That's the only way I see of getting any benefit out of this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wondering this as well. Shania doesn't help if you're on the rail. I just don't think you're going to run into the same people often enough to risk all of your chips like this.

For me, this is the type of hand that I always try to play, and I make moves like this, and after the fact, when I get called by AQ or whatever, I wonder what the heck I was doing in the hand in the first place.

And one last thing. You mentioned in your read that this guy had done some weird stuff, like bet 700 into a 200 pot, etc. I just question whether those types of players are ones that you can really count on making a "correct" laydown to constant pressure.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
The shania value is really in the turn bet. also, its 9 combos of those hands. also, I have a really hard time putting him on a Q here which is the whole reason I bet the turn at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is no shania value if you don't show your hand, right? Maybe i'm misinterpreting your usage. oh, yeah, 9 combos, i suck at math.

[MLG]

Some good points all around. First of all and maybe this is a read thing, but my general reaction to players like this is that they dont understand pot odds at all, that doesnt mean they dont think about what other players have. So the fact that he's getting laid such a big price on the river doesnt play into him deciding to call with JJ or whatever. Obviously I very very rarely make a play like this. Also, I didn't intend to fire a 3 barrel bluff, rather I thought that each bet I made had a enough likelihood of not getting called to justify it.

Given the range I have him on (very unlikely for a Q) I don't really need to have knowledge that he can make a big laydown. I just need to know that he isnt an unbelievably bad calling station who will call with 99/1010/JJ.

As for shania, the idea that it either only helps you if your called, or that it doesnt help you from the rail is off base. Shania is not about individual hands, or individual opponents, its about how you build your game. If the above were true we should never bluff all-in because the times we are called it does us no good and the times we aren't called it does us no good. That deserves its own thread though. Here though its ok to say that most posters assumed that I would be bluffing some small percentage of the time, this hand just happened to be that small percentage. One last thing. Did I get lucky that he folded this time? Absolutely, but how often does he have to fold a hand that's beating me to make this bluff right on the river?

[gergery]

Interesting. I would not think this is a good place to try this bluff. I think there are too many 1-diamond type hands that can call til the river so you you’ll need to risk lots of chips (and, [cue the scary music]…your tournament life!), and some stubborn TP type hands that disbelieve since they can more easily put you on a 1-diamond semi-bluff than on a made flush. Especially since many people like to slowplay made flushes (so he could easily expect you to slowplay).

I also think that if he has a Q he’ll call for only another 1k, but if he doesn’t you have a good chance of winning (if he has say vs. AJ w 1 diamond)

Good hand. Remind me not to get put at your tourney table.

-g

[ActionJeff]

I saw this hand as it went down. Saw you, Rob Mizrachi and a friend of mine at the table, and railed it for a while.

You had me fooled! I had a feeling you would fire that flop with a pretty wide range, but the way the hand played out I thought it was very likely you flopped a small flush. FYI, when he checked the river you shoved it in REALLY quickly.NH.

[MLG]

yeah, there was a weak spot or two, but on the who that was a tough table, and robert was giving me fits.