a coin flip dilemma

[alexd231232]

Consider the fllowing hypothetical situation. You are playing a sng and are at lvl 3(25/50). You know exactly how villian plays(he only plays AJ, AQ, AK, JJ,QQ, KK, AA and he plays the Ax's very differently from the wired pairs). You are dealt TT and the table folds to villian who goes all in. To you this means that he definitely has AJ, AQ, or AK meaning you know it is a coinflip situation. Do you call here? I guess the question i am really trying to ask is: If you know you are giong to get yourself into a coinflip situation, do you still put all your chips into the pot or wait for a better day.

For sake of argument, say your raise was either 100,200,or 300 if you started at 1500 and both of you are pretty even. Would it matter and if you say i'd fold, how much money would you need in the pot in order to go ahead and go for the coin flip?
Thanks in advance for responses

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
Consider the fllowing hypothetical situation. You are playing a sng and are at lvl 3(25/50). You know exactly how villian plays(he only plays AJ, AQ, AK, JJ,QQ, KK, AA and he plays the Ax's very differently from the wired pairs). You are dealt TT and the table folds to villian who goes all in. To you this means that he definitely has AJ, AQ, or AK meaning you know it is a coinflip situation. Do you call here? I guess the question i am really trying to ask is: If you know you are giong to get yourself into a coinflip situation, do you still put all your chips into the pot or wait for a better day.

For sake of argument, say your raise was either 100,200,or 300 if you started at 1500 and both of you are pretty even. Would it matter and if you say i'd fold, how much money would you need in the pot in order to go ahead and go for the coin flip?
Thanks in advance for responses

[/ QUOTE ]

Just fold, he can also have an open-pair, regardless of your read. And if I have a big stack, I'll pass more often than not in this spot.

[alexd231232]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Consider the fllowing hypothetical situation. You are playing a sng and are at lvl 3(25/50). You know exactly how villian plays(he only plays AJ, AQ, AK, JJ,QQ, KK, AA and he plays the Ax's very differently from the wired pairs). You are dealt TT and the table folds to villian who goes all in. To you this means that he definitely has AJ, AQ, or AK meaning you know it is a coinflip situation. Do you call here? I guess the question i am really trying to ask is: If you know you are giong to get yourself into a coinflip situation, do you still put all your chips into the pot or wait for a better day.

For sake of argument, say your raise was either 100,200,or 300 if you started at 1500 and both of you are pretty even. Would it matter and if you say i'd fold, how much money would you need in the pot in order to go ahead and go for the coin flip?
Thanks in advance for responses

[/ QUOTE ]

Just fold, he can also have an open-pair, regardless of your read. And if I have a big stack, I'll pass more often than not in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, i'm saying, for this hypothetical example that YOU KNOW that he has AJ, AQ, or AK and it WILL BE a 50/50, no doubt about it. What i am getting at is when you know its gonna be a flip of the coin, what decides if you put all the money in the middle

[alexd231232]

bump
anyone have any thoughts?

[AbelM]

If you think there will be a situation where your EV is higher than this one a fold is correct. I guess that's very true for this situation.

[Matt R.]

Since the blinds are low relative to your stack, I think ICM should give you a very accurate answer here. If I'm far from making the money, I'm more inclined to call with a pair. It also depends on the stacks of the rest of the table (ICM takes this into consideration). e.g. you won't want to tussle with the guy if your stacks are both well above average usually. But if you're both one of the shorter stacks, it's more correct to call. As blinds get larger this is even more true.

I guess 2:1 pot odds would justify these 1:1 odds. Just my opinion...

[cfjr2]

you win ~54% of the time but I would think you can find a better spot to push (of course might be nice to have him out when you win).

If flop is rags you move to 76% if a T hits you are 98%

if villan pairs you are at 13% if he hits 2 pair you are at 10% if he hits trips you still have 11% chance
So even with a bad flop you stil have a prayer .

[alexd231232]

[ QUOTE ]
you win ~54% of the time but I would think you can find a better spot to push (of course might be nice to have him out when you win).

If flop is rags you move to 76% if a T hits you are 98%

if villan pairs you are at 13% if he hits 2 pair you are at 10% if he hits trips you still have 11% chance
So even with a bad flop you stil have a prayer .

[/ QUOTE ]

This is all pretty irrelevant if we go all in as i assume we wwould preflop. More importantly is whether you'd push or not. Something people haven't really adressed is whether or not the size of your initial raise mattered. How much of the pot would need to be yours for this to be a good call

[cfjr2]

good point so (assuming you are not the blind)
blinds (25+50) = 75 you bet 50+100 = 150
pot = 225 your stack = 1350
villan bets 1500 pot = 1725
pot odds to call 1.3 to 1

blinds (25+50) = 75 you bet 50 + 200 = 250
pot = 325 your stack = 1250
villan bets 1500 pot = 1825
pot odds to call 1.46 to 1

blinds (25+50) = 75 you bet 50 + 300 = 350
pot = 425 your stack = 1150
villan bets 1500 pot = 1925
pot odds to call 1.67 to 1

I will win 54% of the time (6 to 5) I really only need to get slightly less than 1 to 1 pot odds but since this will knock me out it comes down to personal preference in choosing your battle no?

I think I would call - it will increase variance but when you do triple up (assuming 1,000 starting stacks) this early you are in good position for the reminder of the SNG.