30/60 river action?

[jph0424]

Preflop: Hero is in MP with JJ and raises, Button cold calls, everyone else folds.

Flop: Js Td 4c
Hero bets, button calls

Turn: 5c
Hero bets, button raises, hero 3 bets, button caps

River Ac
Hero bets, button raises, hero???

No reads on villain.

What you guys think?

[hobbsmann]

do you have the Jc?

[jph0424]

no Jd Jh

[qbler]

I have trouble putting villain on a flush unless he's got J10 of clubs. Does he really cap the turn HU with just a lone pair and flush draw (KJs, QJs, etc.)? I want to put villain on a lower set or an extremely overplayed AJ but would still probably chicken out and just call because the flush is very possible against an unknown and I'd hate to get 4-bet here.

[Brom]

His action on the turn indicates a made hand to me. I guess he could have the super draw of K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but I doubt he would cap the turn with it, yet not raise the flop; So I'm putting that hand on very low priority.

With his position it is possible he has AA and did some weird slowplaying preflop and on the flop, but without a read this would be hard to judge as well.

All other made hands you have beat (lower sets and two pairs). I'd say pop him one more time on the river. If he did have a lower set he probably won't cap it anyways for fear that you might have AA. Even the straight may fear the flush and not cap it. I could really only see a reasonable person capping it with AA or the flush here, and we already are weighting those hands fairly lowly.

I would be willing to advocate a 3-bet and then fold to a cap with a read on the proper type of opponent (even though I can rarely follow through on that advice myself). However, I don't think it should be done against an unknown.

Edit: I forgot to put in the KJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], QJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and KT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], etc. type hands, but I think I still stand by my play.

[jph0424]

I had the same thoughts as you brom and felt that he had a lower set. You just do not see many caps from players on the turn that are drawing, especially after I had shown so much strength. I also thought any KQ, KJ, QJ type hand would be raising the flop. It felt like he was slowplaying me with that turn action so I three bet it. Thoughts? I will post results shortly.

[lil feller]

As others have said thats an aweful lot of action on the turn w/out a made hand. I would 3bet and call a cap. Granted, if you get capped you are almost definately behind, but I think folding to the 4th bet would be a meta-game disaster.

lf

[jph0424]

Well I did three bet and he called with AA and HHIG. I really thought he had TT or 44 but you never know what folks are going to do with AA. I guess he thought I was drawing by not capping the river. In his shoes do you call or cap?

[Brom]

Like I mentioned, without a read there is no reason to believe this is AA. Against an unknown opponent I think your play is default.

Would I cap in his shoes? Well I did say something along the lines of 3-betting (in your shoes) and folding to a cap. This was because I couldn't see your hand being good enough of the time when there are four bets going in. For this same reason I don't think I'd cap in his situation. Sure you can now beat the JJ but all those other hands are still going to be there too much of the time that he's in for that 4th bet. If he was truly terrible though and I was certain he'd pay off with hands like two pair most of the time, then I'd be hard pressed not to cap it - even if only for the future.