Q8

[CardSharpCook]

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yes he could have KQ of course and that would not be good obviously.

but you're talking about one hand combination out of many.

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but we are not talking about one hand combo, we are talking about 3 hand combos. You have no reason to believe that the first player who bet into the PFR is going to fold. You have no reason to believe the raiser is going to fold. You KNOW that the 3bettor won't fold. OK, so what are your hand ranges for all 3 players, and will the guys who checked fold? KQ could be your 2bettor, a set could be your open bettor, QJ, etc, etc. I really don't think my Q out is good, I KNOW my 8 is no good, and quite a few Js like this flop enough to bet/2bet/3bet/call. I'm not worst-case scenerio'ing this, I'm just saying that against the strength shown, I'm giving myself 3-4 outs to a hand that isn't the nuts and to which there are many redraws. That's not good enough even in this nice pot to get me to call 3bets. I'm not putting in 4bets in the amusing hope to get LIMIT players to FOLD on the FLOP!!! or to secure a free card which I probably won't get as 3players have shown some fondness for their hands.

[GuyOnTilt]

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yes he could have KQ of course and that would not be good obviously.

but you're talking about one hand combination out of many.

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but we are not talking about one hand combo, we are talking about 3 hand combos. You have no reason to believe that the first player who bet into the PFR is going to fold. You have no reason to believe the raiser is going to fold. You KNOW that the 3bettor won't fold. OK, so what are your hand ranges for all 3 players, and will the guys who checked fold? KQ could be your 2bettor, a set could be your open bettor, QJ, etc, etc. I really don't think my Q out is good, I KNOW my 8 is no good, and quite a few Js like this flop enough to bet/2bet/3bet/call. I'm not worst-case scenerio'ing this, I'm just saying that against the strength shown, I'm giving myself 3-4 outs to a hand that isn't the nuts and to which there are many redraws. That's not good enough even in this nice pot to get me to call 3bets. I'm not putting in 4bets in the amusing hope to get LIMIT players to FOLD on the FLOP!!! or to secure a free card which I probably won't get as 3players have shown some fondness for their hands.

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Two words: Backdoor flush.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

yes, we have a 4% shot at the 3rd nut flush. That is worth an out if it is the nut flush and there is no reason to believe that trips don't exist. As is, I'll take 3/4 an out for my BDF.

[GuyOnTilt]

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yes, we have a 4% shot at the 3rd nut flush. That is worth an out if it is the nut flush and there is no reason to believe that trips don't exist. As is, I'll take 3/4 an out for my BDF.

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It's actually worth ~1.9 outs if it's fully clean. I'd give it ~1.6 here.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

10/47 * 10/46 = 4.6%. That is the same as one out on the flop.

[GuyOnTilt]

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10/47 * 10/46 = 4.6%. That is the same as one out on the flop.

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The second numerator should be 9, and no it's not.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

oops. 4.1% Dude, basic out calculation is Outs * 2 * cards to come = %it will come.

On the flop an out is worth about 4.5% (this method undervalues few outs and overvalues many)

[Brom]

The percentage chance that a backdoor flush will come in is 10/47 * 9/46 ~= 0.04163 or 4.1%

The formula relating number of outs (on the flop) to percentage chance of hitting (by the river, which is the only way to get a backdoor flush) is:

%chance = N(93 - N)/2162

Where N is equal to the number of outs.

Solving for N in this equation will give one the number of outs a backdoor flush is equivalent to. With the given numbers, one gets that a backdoor flush is equal to about 0.9780 outs. Since this isn't the nut flush though it is worth even less than that. Take what you will from these calculations, I just wanted to clear it up.

[GuyOnTilt]

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oops. 4.1% Dude, basic out calculation is Outs * 2 * cards to come = %it will come.

On the flop an out is worth about 4.5% (this method undervalues few outs and overvalues many)

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You're wrong. 4.1% is correct, but you've already accounted for the fact that there are two cards to come by multiplying by 47 then 46. There is no need to divide by two. You have ~1.9 b/d flush outs if they are all clean. Your method is valid if that correction has not already been made, for example calculating for KQ on a 942 flop vs 55. In that instances you'd divide the total chance of it coming by the river by 2 to get your outs, since there are no running combos to account for that cannot be simply divided by 45 like "normal" outs. If that doesn't make sense, think of it this way: you have a 10/47 chance (~21%) of picking up 9 outs. Do you see how this is different from "normal" outs like the KQ example?

In theory we're kind of arguing semantics, since you know the probability of it coming. Whatever lingo you choose to transpose that into is fine as long as you don't apply it incorrectly somewhere along the way. In this case, though, you are.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

I'm not dividing anything by 2... OK, if I have KK on a AK7 board and he turns over AA, I have 1 out. there is a 4.5% chance that I'll hit my king. I have 3 to a flush on the flop. There is a 4.1% chance that I hit on the river. This comparison says that a BDF is equal to 1 out. I do see how you are saying that, in a way, a BDF is more valuable than another out in that we'll have a good idea whether or not it will come by the turn, but in effecting our flop equity calculations, we can only count this as 1 out.