Value bet this river?

[wdeadwyler]

UTG play is much more indicative of an small-medium pair than a 10 in my opinion. When villain leads turn at these stakes I tend to put them on a weaker hand, I would expect some sort of c/minraise if villain had a real hand. I dont mind calling the turn, but if villain checks the river we have to value bet.

As for my 1/3 pot value bet, I am calling a c/r all in obviously. However, for villain to take this line with a hand better than mine is bizarre, and I expect a huge percentage of to get paid off by a worse pocket pair or something like 8A.

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a good point. It seems that we're risking all of villain's stack when behind, but we only get that first bet when ahead (since he doesn't check/raise with a worst hand).


[/ QUOTE ]


Good point. In situations like these, I find myself pushing more and more often. You will get called (and win) more often than you would think.
Or, if you're damn sure he won't c/r without beating you, you could bet small (1/3-1/2) and fold to the c/r. If he's not tricky at all its a decent line.

In your particular situation, QQ/JJ are the hands that you want to call, but I'm not sure that he would have those, most would raise preflop with them I would think. His play is consistent with missed clubs, if he would limp a suited connector or something like that utg.
I might check behind here, i don't think he has a calling hand often enough to make it worth it.

He either has a boat / a ten or he has a small pair. Check.

nh, stack sizes dictate alot here

[Andrew Fletcher]

Why not re-raise the turn? If you're just going to call the turn bet, then I think a check on the river makes sense.

Jesus, bet this frickin turn. In a raised pot, he never checks a T or boat to you here. He could easily have a small pp, put you on whiffed AK or club draw, but was too much of a wuss to cr and put his stack in on the flop with his read.

[Bukem_]

Raise the turn. Check the river.

[soah]

I'd much rather raise the turn than bet the river. Betting the scare card on the turn usually means they didn't hit it, so the main possibilities are a pocket pair, or a flush draw. His bet is pretty weak though, and it looks more like an attempt to find out if his 99 is good than a serious attempt to move you off a hand. But I have no idea how players bet their hands at these stakes, so I might be way off.

Raising the turn pretty much commits you though, so you have to balance the extra EV of driving out a flush draw versus the lost EV of paying off with the worst hand. (Of course, if a worse hand will pay off to you then that should be factored in as well. Again, that's something I can't comment on at these stakes.)

[rachelwxm]

bet river.