How's this AQo hand?

Duffman · #1 11-15-2005, 07:34 PM

UTG is LAG, I've seen him bluff often.
BB is TAGish

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 6 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Is the flop raise too much? I thought I'd get BB to fold and clean up some outs.

The turn call looks iffy, but I figured I'd get at least one more bet if I hit.

bigalt · #2 11-15-2005, 07:40 PM

i'm not sure if you can clean up any outs here.

However, I don't think BB is going to call here without a piece of the board, and he may go ahead and call for two with any pair anyway. So I do like a raise and then a free card with your solid draw.

ErrantNight · #3 11-15-2005, 07:48 PM

there's no reason to raise the flop against this opponent.

BigBrother · #4 11-15-2005, 07:53 PM

I don't like it.

You are setting yourself up to get 3-bet by TAG if he has a piece of this flop since he knows one of you will bet. And the board is coordinated enough that your Q outs may cost you dearly, and you are not cleaning up any A outs since you won't fold out AT or AJ and AK is not out there based on pf.

Looks like spewage to me. Just let LAG do his thing and pop him on the end if you get there.

bobhalford · #5 11-15-2005, 08:11 PM

I play the flop the same way. We have ways to improve, and the coordinated nature of the board makes me want to fold the BB out if he catches a piece of the board. The raise also makes it more likely to catch one and possible two free cards if you want them. Calling the flop here seems weak to me when we are in position.

W. Deranged · #6 11-15-2005, 08:20 PM

Flop raise is meh.

Pros:

1. You have like 10 outs effectively.

2. Raising might buy a free card sometimes. (Though not against this opponent).

3. Raising is for value if your opponent is just betting out a 9 or something.

4. Raising is almost certainly for value if you get cold-called behind because if your A outs are good any reasonable amount of the time you probably have an equity edge.

5. Getting another Q to fold behind you is good. (I think some people missed this outs-cleaning value).

Cons:

1. This guy is laggy, so you will often get three-bet and led into or donked on the turn.

2. Raising may shut out someone behind you who would pad the pot and might give you better odds when you are drawing.

Whatever. I don't know and I really think it's pretty close. In the end I actually think I like a raise in general.

ErrantNight · #7 11-15-2005, 08:38 PM

i don't think the flop raise protects your hand or buys you outs and it almost never buys you a free card against this lag.

it might sometimes be for value but it has no fold equity.

Duffman · #8 11-15-2005, 08:51 PM

Do you guys think the turn call is too loose?

Jake (The Snake) · #9 11-15-2005, 08:51 PM

I agree but I think it is for value often enough for the raise to be profitable.

Jake (The Snake) · #10 11-15-2005, 08:55 PM

Even if villain flipped over a jack a turn call would still probably be correct. BTW, I would guess villain will have a jack less than 10% of the time here.