10-20 turn play- 5 questions

[cartman]

I apologize. I went COMPLETELY braindead when I read the original post. I thought a blank hit the turn instead of an Ace! I wouldn't check this or fold this to a raise in a million years.

By the way, what would your line be if a blank did hit the turn instead of the Ace?

Cartman

[Surfbullet]

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Party 10-20

raise AdTh utg, 3 folds, blinds both call.

flop 6c5d6s. 2 checks, bet, sb calls, bb folds. sb is 31/12 (assume lots of hands, so a 10-20 player and stats kinda accurate). no other read.

turn Ac

5.5 questions

1) check, your move?

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My immediate response was "bet."

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2) what range of hands do you put sb on when he calls the flop?


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Mostly no-pair overcard hands, with a backdoor draw maybe. OESD. A pair of 5's c/r's you on the flop, but a 6 will often wait for the turn to c/r. Worse Aces will always call, and many times raise. A5 for 3pair will often raise but we are ahead of that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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3) what % of those hands call a turn bet?

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Any ace(AK/AQ 3bets pf, so only one we are behind is AJ maybe), a 5 that "slowplayed," a picked up club draw, or OESD.


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4) how likely is he to bluff river if you check turn (based on limited info provided)?


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Reasonably likely, but I'd prefer a specific read to go with the #'s - there are many 30/10 type players who, once they go into calldown mode, don't come back out to try and bluff. There are other players who will bluff if you look at 'em funny and they think you are weak. I'd say you've got a 40% shot at inducing a bluff.

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5.5) how likely is he to check-raise, i.e. what hands from your flop calling range will check-raise this turn (maybe this is a percentage of times), and what's you plan if he does check-raise?


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If he c/r's us on the turn, I put his hands like this: [6x:30% Ax:60% 2clubs/oesd:10%]

I call him if he c/r's me. These guys LOVE the turn c/r.

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I have some thoughts on these but want to see how my answers line up. Thanks a lot.

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Those are my thoughts. I'm interested in hearing other people's thoughts as well.

I like where you are going with this...against very aggressive/bluff happy opponents I am going to start mixing up my play by checking through the turn when I hit an A to encourage a bluff on the river. Thanks for the thought-provoking discussion.

Surf

[paco]

1) check, your move?

Huge check. I think your only chance to get any value out of this hand is to induce a bluff

2) what range of hands do you put sb on when he calls the flop?

I think its gonna be high overcards the vast majority of the time. He would 3-bet with primo high cards no? I'm thinking KQo thru QJs, something like that. A small pair would c/r this flop knowing his hand is vulnerable. A 6 seems almost out of the question from the SB and and UTG raiser (I mean, he's 30/11, not 65/11)--if it was the BB it might be more of a possibility, having to put in only one small bet to complete. Once in a long while you might be looking at slowplayed rockets or a !doh! slowplayed cowboys, although 3 bet seems more likely.

3) what % of those hands call a turn bet?

I think VERY few. I really thinking 80% of the time he has overcards and will fold to a bet if not holding an ace.

4) how likely is he to bluff river if you check turn (based on limited info provided)?

This is the toughest question, IMO. Sooo many players check behind in this HU situation--I'm expecting the trap. BUT, like I said, I think its the only chance to get value from this hand. HIs low pfr% says passive to me, but you may get a bluff 40% of the time. From a more aggresssive opponent this line is a must and can expect a bet perhaps 75% of time unless you keep burning him and his nuts have shriveled up.

5.5) how likely is he to check-raise, i.e. what hands from your flop calling range will check-raise this turn (maybe this is a percentage of times), and what's you plan if he does check-raise?

CAll down the c/r. I think he will most likely make it with an ace, perhaps with a better kicker based on the OOP call from UTG raiser, so it'll be painful, but I think I have to do it, especially the first time he does it.
I don't think he's c/ring with unimproved overcards, and continuing on the flop with a backdoor draw is remote. I think when he c/r, you're behind the majority of the time, but you should invest the two more bets to call it down.

[Trix]

4b) how likely is he to check-call a hand that he would have folded to a turnbet ?

[Grisgra]

Fantastic question, and in my opinion those that are auto-betting the turn here are missing the point entirely. (For what it's worth, I often bet the turn here, but I think it's close).

I think I bet the turn here with a strong ace, and check it, call the river (or bet a checked river) with a weak ace. AT is right in-between, unfortunately. If I'm bet and am checkraised . . . ugh. At 10/20 I guess I have to call it down. Any limit lower than that and I probably chuck it.

There just aren't many hands against which a turn bet is a value-bet, while there are plenty of folks that will bluff this river if you check it, or call down with a marginal hand after you've shown weakness on the turn.

[Trix]

5.5 questions

1) check, your move?

It depends on his range, how likely he is to slowplay, how likely he is to just call the flop with a hand that he should have protected. It also depends how good he is at hand reading, as a turn check looks alot like a cheap SD move. Also if he will CR a worse hand.


2) what range of hands do you put sb on when he calls the flop?

Most likely are 87s,98s,97s,55,66,AJ,AT,A9, maybe worse if suited or maybe AQ. 22-88 he may also just check-call.

3) what % of those hands call a turn bet?

87, Ax does, small-medium pairs probably give up.

4) how likely is he to bluff river if you check turn (based on limited info provided)?

I actually think it may be more important how often he will check-call small-medium pairs and guessing it will be pretty often.

5.5) how likely is he to check-raise, i.e. what hands from your flop calling range will check-raise this turn (maybe this is a percentage of times), and what's you plan if he does check-raise?

Not sure really here, he could CR any A, maybe only the better once, he could CR 87 as a bluff aswell.

Overall I think alot depends on whether he will protect small-medium pairs on the flop, whether he will 3bet AQ(AJ) from the SB, how much equity we have when check-raised on the turn. Also which worse Aces he coldcalls in the SB.
How he will read the check, as it looks alot like a cheap showdown check, but some people just see it as weakness..

I´m not really sure what is the better play in this hand from the info given.

[sthief09]

let me preface this by a hand I played yesterday:

very loose, average aggro SB completes, I raise K8o from the BB. Flop is J55, he check calls. Turn is a K, he checks and I check through. River is a rag, he bets, and I call though I should've raised. so I have been experimenting with this type of thing. he happened to have 97 so I earned myself a bet from a hand that was drawing dead and that would've folded. FTOP-wise, that's a hugely profitable play.


1) check, your move?

I think this is a good spot to check. I don't think you should do anything every time here, but I think it's a ncie spot to mix it in. not quite ideal (I'd ratehr have a hand like A2 where there's a greater chance that I'm behind).


2) what range of hands do you put sb on when he calls the flop?

Monster: A6, 55, 65s, 76s, 66
Pair: 44-22, A5, 54s
Overcards: QJs, KQ, AJ, AT, A9, KJ, A8
Draw: 87s (though I suspect he'd c/r with this), 98s



3) what % of those hands call a turn bet?

all but the ones that are drawing dead


4) how likely is he to bluff river if you check turn (based on limited info provided)?

I think he'll tend to value bet/bluff all of these hands pretty much all the time here.


5.5) how likely is he to check-raise, i.e. what hands from your flop calling range will check-raise this turn (maybe this is a percentage of times), and what's you plan if he does check-raise?

if he has an OESD, he might. monster obviously does. A9 or A8 might. A5 might if he's stupid. I think you gotta call the check raise and river though.


so if you're behind he's check raising, if you're ahead he's usually folding but sometimes (Ax, 44-22) calling. if you check through he's just about always bluffing and you save a bet when behind (unlikely). you lose some value if he decides to check raise the turn as a bluff and bet the river though I don't think you'll see this too often.

but I think a really big chunk of his hands are big cards that will now either bet the river or pay off a bet