AA vs AA vs KK vs KK

This is a new incredo hand. Sahara 11pm tournament tonight, four folks got all in pre-flop. They flip their cards over and we see AA, AA, KK, and KK. I've seen 4 aces on the flop/turn. I've seen lots and lots of AA vs KK vs QQ. I've flopped a royal flush. But this is a whole new level of improbability.

Course the guy who folded 74 claims he woulda won the pot.

Amazing. However, I think it is less probable to flop a Royal Straight Flush, or not?

Edit: Not so sure anymore ... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ohnonotthat]

"WOULD have won the hole pot" ?

Without doing the calculations I'll stick my neck out and say had his hand had been a little better than 7-4 (7/6 for example) and had it been suited he might have had not only the best chance among the 5 hands to win the hole pot (very difficult for AA or KK to scoop) but possibly the highest EV of anyone. His expectation was certainly higher than either of the two K-K's and quite possibly higher than either of the other two.

I will now go run the numbers to see if I nailed it, missed by a little, or inserted my entire foot into my mouth.

- It is a big foot but it's not a tight fit. :-)

If he had 76s, he would have won in about 29% of the cases, in 66% the aces would have tied.

[ohnonotthat]

EV for AA : 34.7% and 35.6% respectively

EV for KK : .5% for each

EV for 76s : 28.7%

*

Moral of the story - actually there are two.

1. It seldom pays to shoot for half the pot with the best hand and it almost never pays to do it without the best hand (or best draw).

2. I need to get some rest; I said (quote) very difficult for AA or KK to scoop (end quote) . . . KK cannot scoop - EVER - and the two AA hands combined scoop less than 5% of the time.

*

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt" . . .

- especially when you're barely awake. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Amazing. However, I think it is less probable to flop a Royal Straight Flush, or not?

Edit: Not so sure anymore ... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think AAvAAvKKvKK on an 11-handed table is less likely than my chances of flopping a royal (yes, Sahara tourneys are dealt 11-handed, normally).

Odds of someone getting AA is about 1:20. Odds of some else getting KK is 1:20. Odds of a third person then getting AA is about 1:120. Odds of a fourth person getting KK is also about 1:120. Put 'em all together and this is something like a 5 million to 1 shot.

'Course we all KNOW these things are only supposed to happen online!

[ohnonotthat]

AA would scoop on those rare occasions when 4 to a suit hit the board and split otherwise; as often as you said . KK would never scoop but would split once in a great while when both hands made a K-high straight.

Apologies if I suggested otherwise.

I only posted those numbers to show the amusing/frustrating/counterintuitive nature of the game.

I would not suggest one make a habit of calling in these spots with 74/off OR 76/s, however the latter of these would fare better in this particular spot than a pocket pair - regardless of the rank of the pair - and the former would do almost as well.

Still, lots of people would leap into this pot with QQ, JJ or TT; how many would call here with 76/s or 74/off ?

- My guess is very few and VERY few.

[Artsemis]

KK could scoop with a straight flush.

[ QUOTE ]
KK could scoop with a straight flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
Joking? How can anyone get a straight flush with no aces or kings left in the deck?

Edit: I'm stupid. Dont know why but I thought u wrote "royal flush". Of course you're right.

AsAc AhAd KsKc KhKd
% chance of outright win 2.08 2.08 .007 .007
% chance of win or split 97.15 97.15 1.30 1.30
expected return, % of pot 49.48 49.48 0.52 0.52
fair pot odds:1 1.02 1.02 191.9 191.9
pots won: 537374 537374 5630 5630

.007% chance of an outright win for KK.