Good power play or silly risk ?

[betgo]

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i agree totally. Calling is the first option I considered. A smaller reraise than all in is okay, too, but I realy like calling here.


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Calling isn't that bad a play is this situation, but AK is the kind of hand you want to raise with on a semibluff. Even with deep money where you can't push, making a big raise with AK is pretty standard.

Making a smaller raise here is OK, but the purpose is to get a fold by making it look like you are looking for a call with QQ-AA. The push looks like you are looking for a fold and have AK or maybe AQ or a medium pair or suited connector or something.

If you make a smaller raise, you are pot committed and should put the rest of your chips in if your opponent reraises or on any flop.

[Sean D]

Didn't Matusow say something about the donkeys calling off all of their chips hoping its a coin flip?

Your fold equity is high, and I'd say you'd only get a call from TT and above. Anyone that said they'd call with 77-88, with 22xbb behind either has a lot of gamble in them or just has more balls than me. I'm confident in my playing, that with 22bbs I still have room to work and play, with no reason to shove my stack in on a coinflip.

Now, I didnt say I love the play, but it wasn't terrible. If you have any post-flop playing ability, then I'd call here. Say he open-raised with AQ, if an ace hits, then you probably stack him.

Edit: Position also plays a big factor. You have that in your advantage so I'd lean toward a call even more. If this play was made from the SB or BB then I like it.

[CardSharpCook]

Sean, it isn't about "hoping for a coin flip." It is about putting your opponent on a range of hands, determining your odds, and determining pot odds. Once you can compare those odds, you'll know if someone is offering you a good bet. If someone rolls a six-sided die, and offers you 4:1 payout if a "6" falls, BUT only takes bets of $1000, you take the bet. Sklansky talks about future situations that might be more +EV. Well, true, so find a gap between true odds and pot odds that is acceptable to you. Good players notice these slight edges and take them. With 88, true odds have you around 51%, Pot odds recommend a call at 42%. I think that gap is wide enough for me.

CSC

[CardSharpCook]

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If you make a smaller raise, you are pot committed and should put the rest of your chips in if your opponent reraises or on any flop.

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There is no such thing as "pot committed". You can fold any hand at any time. You should fold when you feel you are beat AND the pot is no longer laying you odds to call.

There is no set way to play this after the flop, but calling with 7% of your stack does not mean that you must put in the rest of your stack in on any flop. See what happens. The idea here is that calling puts substantial pressure on your oppenent (who HATES a call when he is out-of-position). Pressure makes us make mistakes. Maybe he'll push when an ace falls. Maybe he'll meekly check the flop. Maybe you'll decide to call a standard bet on the flop to see what he will do on the turn. Maybe he'll bet an amount that makes you concerned enough to fold.

Don't be afraid of flops. And for those of you that are.... I recommend Limit HE to improve your flop skills. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[anacardo]

The play here is a reraise of about 10K, though the push isn't that bad a play. The play should really depend more on your read of the player than anything else. The average player lays down middle pair up to tens here almost every time. Just calling with AK from with the chip lead here is ridiculous. I want to play against the guy who does that. The push isn't smart because you can get a better idea of his range by just raising the 10K. He could be raising with suited connectors, A-x or middle to high pockets. Most of those hands he folds.

[Sean D]

Cardsharp, I understand what you are saying, and I fully understand giving your opponent a range, and determining your EV against that range. So in a cash game, this is a call I make with 88-AA. But with your tournament on the line, it makes things a bit more hazy. If I believe I have an edge against my opponents, and can outplay them later on in the tourney, then I'm mucking 77-99.
For example, same situation. Except this time its a home game with players that have never played before. You open for 3xbb with 88. Button who has you covered pushes. You still have 23bbs behind, and you would still call knowing you have a very slight edge? If I feel my edge playing later is greater than my equity in the pot, then I fold. If I'm playing with better players, and feel this is the best spot to get my money in, then yes I call.

[CardSharpCook]

Sean, you need to stop thinking that you are so much better than your opponents that you can afford to lay these hands down.

You have 25K. You've just paid 3,500. Fold here, you have 21,500.

Call with 88, 53% of the time you have 52K. 47% of the time, you have 0.

.53*52K + .47*0K = 27,600 . Calling with 88 has an EV of T6,100 or 30% of your stack.

Call with 77, you have a 50% chance of having 52K and a 50% chance of having 0K = 26K. Calling with 77 has an EV of T4,500 or 20% of your stack.

Call with 99, 29,300, EV = T7,800 or 36% of your stack.

Risk/Reward. Yes, there is the risk that you bust out right here, but (56%/53%/50%) of the time, you have 52K instead of 21.5K. You are giving up quite a bit by folding here. These ARE the edges that good players find.

CSC

[Sean D]

I appreciate the insight CSC, and you may be right. But we are getting away from the point of the post. If you are on the button and push with AK, and your opponent will fold all but TT-AA, then a push is an okay play. If he calls you with 66-up, then the play becomes marginal, as you aren't getting enough fold equity. To the original poster, the difference between calling, reraising, and pushing is close, so these responses are going to be varied.

[fuzzbox]

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I don't think its too bad, if I would prefer raising 9-12k and calling the villains push.



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Do I really want him to have any thoughts whatsoever that I might laydown to a push ? My finest result is if he folds - so why not push myself and then he knows for sure that I wont laydown.

[betgo]

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Do I really want him to have any thoughts whatsoever that I might laydown to a push ? My finest result is if he folds - so why not push myself and then he knows for sure that I wont laydown.

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There is some point to this. However, if it looks like you want your opponent to fold, he may be able to figure out that you don't have a monster hand. A smaller raise may be scarier to an opponent with 99-JJ.