$1000 on USC, even, against Texas for the Rose Bowl.

yoolykeme · #1 11-22-2005, 03:51 PM

heres the deal:

USC <even> Texas

some guy is willing to bet $1000 on Texas over USC during this probable, if not eventual Rose Bowl matchup.

As far as I'm concerned, it's a good bet. Early line has USC -6.5. Taking USC at even is a no-brainer, imo.

Question is, should I hedge, or let it ride? Or bet more? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

legend42 · #2 11-22-2005, 04:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Question is, should I hedge, or let it ride? Or bet more? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, see if he's willing to go to $5K.

yoolykeme · #3 11-22-2005, 04:57 PM

im sure that i could get more.....question is, should i scalp and bet the money line on TX to hedge?

DeucesUp · #4 11-22-2005, 06:44 PM

You've got a very +EV bet so there's no reason to reduce your edge by hedging or scalping.

That said, if you're wagering an amount that you're uncomfortable losing (i.e say your buddy is willing to go up to $10K and you couldn't handle losing that much on one game) then go ahead and take TX on the ML for the sure, but smaller, profit. Or take TX and the points and go for the monster middle where you loose the vig with a TX win or an SC blowout, but win both with an SC 1-6 point win.

It's really up to you how you want to manage your risk/reward, but clearly any additional bet you make at a sportsbook will reduce the huge edge you have on the game.

lastchance · #5 11-22-2005, 09:06 PM

I think Texas Moneyline is a +EV bet by itself, so that's what I would bet.

I like this angle.

You can lock in some profit taking Texas moneyline (which is 2-1 or something), about $6600 on that, $10,000 on USC straight up, and win about $5000.

Free money is always nice, right?

yoolykeme · #6 11-23-2005, 10:27 AM

yep, this is the reasonng that i needed to hear. for some reason, i couldnt put it all together. thanks for putting it into perspective for me. in any case, i guess I'll just see how the line moves between now and then and base my decision on that.

thanks again.

tech · #7 11-23-2005, 12:08 PM

Bet as much as you can with your buddy (if you are sure he will pay). Then scalp the UT moneyline until you get down to a point where you are comfortable with your exposure on the game.