When to raise for a free showdown

[cartman]

I am pretty clueless about when to raise for a free showdown. Can anyone enlighten me? Any input regarding the appropriate combination of conditions, opponent type, board texture, our hand, or any other relevant factor would be greatly appreciated. Conceptual explanation and/or examples would be wonderful.

Thanks,
Cartman

[Lmn55d]

I'll give it a shot. There are a couple factors that determine the effectiveness of a free showdown raise. The most important, IMO, is how often your opponent will fold a better hand. This is what gives the move its power. Here's an example:

You open from the CO with 9Ts and are called by a fairly weak-tight BB. Flop comes QT6 with a flush draw. You bet and are checkraised. You call. Turn is 4. BB leads and you raise, intending to take a free showdown.

Against a player who could fold TJ, TK, AT or a weak queen, this is one hell of a move. Furthermore, you could still have the best hand because he could be on a draw or have a pair of sixes or something.

There are a couple more important factors:

2) how frequently will your opponent 3bet you with a worse hand. There are a lot of aggressive players who love to semibluff or bluff 3bet, or simply 3bet a weaker made hand because they like it. Against these players, the free showdown raise loses a ton of value (also these types of players tend not to fold a better hand than yours, which goes along with #1). When you make a free showdown raise, you are intending to fold to a 3bet usually. Sometimes you are folding a hand that is best or has a lot more outs than you think. If either of these is likely to be the case, the FSR loses a lot of value.

3) How often will your opponent bluff the river with a missed draw or otherwise weak hand. If your opponent will bluff the river 100% of the time, you'd rather him do this with 0% equity than charge him on the turn when he has equity and might 3bet with a worse hand or simply fold to your raise. MarkD and I did some calculations in an older post about the value of folding a 5-6 outer. This is often overrated. THe pot would have to be pretty big to make this have more value than inducing a river bluff from a frequent bluffer. Some guys will be bluffing a hand that is drawing dead or very slim against yours and would fold to a turn raise, but would bluff the river if you just call the turn. In this spot you obviously want to keep your opponent in. Against an opponent who never bluffs and who will often have a draw, the FSR gains a lot of value.

Like I said in another post, the types of player that the FSR is useful against aren't too common at 5/10, 10/20 etc. Semibluff and bluff raises are so common that nobody folds, even solid playing TAGs. There are some players/situations where it is a very powerful move though. Particularly if a player respects your play. Also, if the turn introduces a new draw, you will lose a lot of folding equity because people will put you on a semibluff a lot.

[thejameser]

i guess fold equity is important, but that is usually the case with any bet; that is if we could win it right there in a marginal situation that is usually what we would like to do. the key to the free showdown is that you opponent is likely on a draw. he will pay 2 bb's on the turn but not on the river unless he likely has a better hand(you have a marginal hand in this situation). that way you make the most when ahead, given that unless he is just bluffing he will not bet or call the river on a busted draw(which is the key). also, i like to think when you get your money in with cards to come, you are getting it in with "suck out" equity(that is you could improve to trips, etc.)which can make you more of a favorite or stronger at showdown. i'm forgetting something but hope that helps a little bit.

[surfdoc]

very nice post.

[kapw7]

My thought: It's not really a "free showdown". It can be even more expensive if you get bet on the river. So it is nothing more than a semi-bluff turn raise. I think it's effective when you charge a hand that you suspect is on a draw or generally when you think your hand can win at SD but you can charge 1 more bet and you have the extra value of folding equity or making a hand as in any semi-bluff.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a couple factors that determine the effectiveness of a free showdown raise. The most important, IMO, is how often your opponent will fold a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post, but note that it is not necessary that a free showdown raise have fold equity to be +EV. Even if you only cause worse hands to fold, a free showdown raise will often be correct.

Your other two points are good. A couple other obvious factors that justify a free showdown raise: 1) Your hand is good often enough relative to the pot size that putting 2 bets in justified. 2) Your hand isn't strong enough that you want 3 bets to go in on turn and river.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
MarkD and I did some calculations in an older post about the value of folding a 5-6 outer. This is often overrated. THe pot would have to be pretty big to make this have more value than inducing a river bluff from a frequent bluffer.

[/ QUOTE ]

You wouldn't by any chance happen to have a link to this post would you?

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]

Your other two points are good. A couple other obvious factors that justify a free showdown raise: 1) Your hand is good often enough relative to the pot size that putting 2 bets in justified. 2) Your hand isn't strong enough that you want 3 bets to go in on turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]

3) avoiding a river checkraise from a very drawy board.

[bobbyi]

So far everyone is talking about raising the turn because you have fold equity. This is not the only reason to make this play. Here's a case where you believe you have no fold equity, but will make the play anyway:

Suppose on the turn your AXs has turned into a crappy pair with the nut flush draw. You are heads up in position and your opponent bets. You think it is very likely that he has top pair. If he does and you raise, you think that he will never fold but he will also never reraise or bet the river (he'll check/call unimproved and will check/raise if he improves to two pair/ trips). You believe there is also some chance that he has a worse flush draw. If he does, he will bluff the river sometimes. The chance of this is just large enough that if you call the turn you will have to make a crying call on a blank river.

Let's compare calling the turn to raising.

If a blank comes on the river, they are mostly equivalent. If he has top pair, you lose the same two bets either way (two on the turn and zero on the river by raising/checking, one on each street by calling down). If he was pushing a worse flush draw, you gain the same two bets either way if he was going to bluff the river (assuming that he will not subsequently bet the river after you raise even if he improves to a pair). However, in the situations where he had the draw and wasn't going to bluff the river, you pick up an extra bet, so raising is better than calling.

But what is you help on the river? There is a chance that your turn raise results in you picking up an extra bet against top pair. This is opponent-dependent, but suppose that he is the kind of player that will be scared enough by the flush getting there that he will check-call (or bet-fold) even if you don't raise the turn. Maybe even the ace (making you two pair) or the board pairing (making you trips) will be scary enough to have the same result. So if you call the turn, you pick up one bet on each street when you improve. But if you raise the turn, you can pick up an extra bet on the river when he check calls there for a total of three. So raising is better here too.

Again, for this to hold true you need the right kind of opponent, but these situations really do arise. Usually they come up in situations where the opponent is going to react correctly to the river card by putting in less bets only if it helps you (since it is an obviously helpful card). In this case, you would rather force him to put his money in before he gets the chance to see what the river card is.

[paco]

Here's a nice article link--much is it is discussed in the very good above posts, but there are examples in the article.

http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/a...son-pohl10.htm