Turn decision...

krishanleong · #1 07-09-2005, 12:44 PM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets, Hero folds.

Villian was 56/28 over 37 hands. What's the move on the turn. I don't think he was capping light FWIW. If you want to fold the turn, tell me how many outs I have.

Krishan

Lmn55d · #2 07-09-2005, 01:08 PM

I would call. You most likely get 2 BB on the river if you hit your straight and you should call if you hit an ace. He could easily have an overpair other than AA here. I'd say you have 5-5.5 outs on average with solid implied odds.

Edit: I'm pretty confident your implied odds if you hit a straight on the river are somewhere around +1.5 BB. If you hit an ace, it's probably around neutral, possibly slightly negative or positive...we'd have to do a Bayesian analysis of the hands he caps preflop, bets flop, turn and river with to see how an ace hits him on average. He's almost never folding though.

Victor · #3 07-09-2005, 01:24 PM

fold preflop. a9 is the lowest i would go. but i proly would wait for more specifics or more than 35 hands.

dave44 · #4 07-09-2005, 05:33 PM

I would fold preflop as well. I open-raise pretty liberally from the CO and A7o still does not play well against my range of hands.

The turn is a fold, too. You certainly have 4 gutshot outs, but your A and 7 outs don't look good. I'd give you .5 - 1 for each giving you about 5 - 5.5 outs which is insufficient.

krishanleong · #5 07-09-2005, 05:44 PM

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The turn is a fold, too. You certainly have 4 gutshot outs, but your A and 7 outs don't look good. I'd give you .5 - 1 for each giving you about 5 - 5.5 outs which is insufficient.

[/ QUOTE ]

Give me a range of hands for villian please.

Krishan

DrGutshot · #6 07-09-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop. a9 is the lowest i would go. but i proly would wait for more specifics or more than 35 hands.

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folding preflop would be a bad idea against this type of opponent.

-DrG

dave44 · #7 07-09-2005, 06:27 PM

Hands and % of time I'd guess they'd cap it, combinations of that hand and your outs against it...
AA - 90% , 3 , 4
KK - 95% , 6 , 7
QQ - 95% , 6 , 7
JJ - 80% , 6 , 7
TT - 50% , 3 , 4
AKs - 85% , 3 , 7
AKo - 75% , 9 , 7
AQs - 50% , 3 , 7
AQo - 30% , 9 , 7

Calculating this all out gives you about 6.8 outs. I clearly wasn't thinking in discounting your pair outs so heavily. Looks like a call on the turn.

dave44 · #8 07-09-2005, 06:33 PM

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 52.6253 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AA-44, AKs-A2s, KQs-K5s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s, AKo-A5o, KQo-K8o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o }
Hand 2: 47.3747 % [ 00.44 00.04 ] { Ac7d }

CO's range of hands includes 31% of hands. That's enough for me to fold.

Victor · #9 07-09-2005, 07:13 PM

my contention is that 37 hands is not enough to label this opponent as this kind of opponent.

krishanleong · #10 07-10-2005, 12:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hands and % of time I'd guess they'd cap it, combinations of that hand and your outs against it...
AA - 90% , 3 , 4
KK - 95% , 6 , 7
QQ - 95% , 6 , 7
JJ - 80% , 6 , 7
TT - 50% , 3 , 4
AKs - 85% , 3 , 7
AKo - 75% , 9 , 7
AQs - 50% , 3 , 7
AQo - 30% , 9 , 7

Calculating this all out gives you about 6.8 outs. I clearly wasn't thinking in discounting your pair outs so heavily. Looks like a call on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent analysis. In the real hand I called the turn, spiked an ace on the winner, called a river bet and won against QQ.

Krishan