Three-bet the turn with one pair?

[samdash]

If I 3 bet this turn I'm going to showdown everytime no matter what.

[Nigel]

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If you raise the river, do you call his raise? What flavors of rivers don't you raise? Do you raise a diamond?

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If he 3 bets the river, I probably fold. It's opponent dependent, but the number of times I am good here, is just too small. If he 3 bets the river, I would guess anything short of QJ would be no good. The size of the pot just wouldn't justify a call, IMO, against anyone who is not a total goof.

Since he defends with any 2 and is a lag, I don't try to get too specific with a read. I probably raise any river, althought that again is player specific to how safely I can fold to a 3 bet from this guy. Cart says he's not a maniac, so if we're raising a Q or diamond on the river and then being 3 bet, it's probably safe to say we're toast.

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If the guy is good enough to fold a queen on the river after a turn 3-bet, then this has more merit, but I would guess that he's not.

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I'm not following how that matters, we get 4 bets either way if he calls down with top pair. What does matter is that if he has Ad2d, and catches a duece on the river, he'll bet and probably call a river raise, whereas if we 3 bet the turn, I think he can check fold that river. Not saying he will, but just throwing it out there.

Somehow I feel like I didn't do a good job of explaining myself or answering your question, but hopefully it made sense.

Nigel

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It's very rare that you are not getting a continuation bet either way, so you make 3 bets in either case.

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Nigel,

You bring up some valid points for waiting, and this is one of them. If the river was just a street, but no card, then you're right, the decision wouldn't be close.

However, what rivers come that will scare you off of a raise? Do you still raise if any diamond hits? How about a Jack? Or a Queen?

Edit: Raising the turn eliminates that possibility. It may be closer than either of us think.

[baronzeus]

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It's very rare that you are not getting a continuation bet either way, so you make 3 bets in either case.

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Nigel,

You bring up some valid points for waiting, and this is one of them. If the river was just a street, but no card, then you're right, the decision wouldn't be close.

However, what rivers come that will scare you off of a raise? Do you still raise if any diamond hits? How about a Jack? Or a Queen?

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the only river i dont raise is a queen

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[ QUOTE ]
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It's very rare that you are not getting a continuation bet either way, so you make 3 bets in either case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nigel,

You bring up some valid points for waiting, and this is one of them. If the river was just a street, but no card, then you're right, the decision wouldn't be close.

However, what rivers come that will scare you off of a raise? Do you still raise if any diamond hits? How about a Jack? Or a Queen?

[/ QUOTE ]

the only river i dont raise is a queen

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You've got some balls.

[Nigel]

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[ QUOTE ]
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It's very rare that you are not getting a continuation bet either way, so you make 3 bets in either case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nigel,

You bring up some valid points for waiting, and this is one of them. If the river was just a street, but no card, then you're right, the decision wouldn't be close.

However, what rivers come that will scare you off of a raise? Do you still raise if any diamond hits? How about a Jack? Or a Queen?

[/ QUOTE ]

the only river i dont raise is a queen

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got some balls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's true what you say. But the river card is coming regardless, and you are winning or losing regardless. So, if you 3 bet the turn and he donks Q river, or donks a diamond, do you fold? You lose 4 bets if you are calling.

If you wait to raise the river and hold off on a raise, you can keep it to 3 if you fear a diamond or a second Q, or you can just raise anyway if you are willing to fold to a 3-bet and keep the gain/loss to the original 4 bets.

Nigel

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's very rare that you are not getting a continuation bet either way, so you make 3 bets in either case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nigel,

You bring up some valid points for waiting, and this is one of them. If the river was just a street, but no card, then you're right, the decision wouldn't be close.

However, what rivers come that will scare you off of a raise? Do you still raise if any diamond hits? How about a Jack? Or a Queen?

[/ QUOTE ]

the only river i dont raise is a queen

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got some balls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's true what you say. But the river card is coming regardless, and you are winning or losing regardless. So, if you 3 bet the turn and he donks Q river, or donks a diamond, do you fold? You lose 4 bets if you are calling.

If you wait to raise the river and hold off on a raise, you can keep it to 3 if you fear a diamond or a second Q, or you can just raise anyway if you are willing to fold to a 3-bet and keep the gain/loss to the original 4 bets.

Nigel

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I was really talking about the times that a card scares you from raising, but he didn't hit it.

[Nigel]

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I was really talking about the times that a card scares you from raising, but he didn't hit it.

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Right, I follow. But what difference does it make, you can choose not to raise and lose the same 3 bets you would have lost on the turn and most likely save yourself a 4th since if he hits his flush (or 3rd Q) he might be donking out the turn.

It still seems like it leaves you more in control of how many bets go in the pot. What am I missing?

Nigel

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I was really talking about the times that a card scares you from raising, but he didn't hit it.

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Right, I follow. But what difference does it make, you can choose not to raise and lose the same 3 bets you would have lost on the turn and most likely save yourself a 4th since if he hits his flush (or 3rd Q) he might be donking out the turn.

It still seems like it leaves you more in control of how many bets go in the pot. What am I missing?

Nigel

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The only thing you're missing is that the continuation bet isn't a given. Other than that, no problems. It's still close.

[cartman]

Am I a moron for feeling like I am committed to go to the showdown with a hand like this (TPTK or an overpair) heads up?

Should I be willing to fold unimproved on the river if the caps the turn ?

Should I be willing to fold to a river 3-bet?

It almost seems to me that the reward of less than one big bet of additional EV is not worth opening myself up to folding the best hand and losing what will by then be a huge pot even if it occurs very rarely.

Against a passive opponent who would never cap the turn or 3-bet the river with a hand worse than mine it makes perfect sense. But against an aggressive opponent this seems like a very very bad move.

Can anyone tell me where my reasoning is flawed?

Thanks,
Cartman