Breakeven for 40K hands (Please comment on these stats)

[cartman]

Hi Maxx,

I truly believe this is the case, but blaming variance is dangerous. I have never been complacent and I have from the very start worked very hard to improve. I feel more in command than I ever have. My hand reading is SO much better than it was 100K hands ago. I didn't make this post sooner because it never crossed my mind that it was anything more than just running bad. The fact that it has gone on this long has finally made me wonder. One amazing thing is that during this entire stretch I have never been more than 150 big bets off of my all time peak. I have almost literally gone straight sideways!

Cartman

[Surfbullet]

Hey Cartman,

I am really impressed that you had the discipline to stay at the 5/10 that long - and the tenacity/drive to put in so many hours. I didn't do that (when I probably should have) and it made moving up to 10/20 a herculean undertaking. Additionally I passed up on making a significant amount of $ in the interrim as well, having spent so much time breakeven at 10/20.

Good luck with your difficulties. Any tips for putting in so many hands?

Surf

[Wynton]

Maybe you 10/20 people should move to your own forum. This is depressing.

If the forum is split up then I can dwell among the players who don't believe it's possible to have bad luck for 40K hands.

[cartman]

I almost exclusively 4-table and that obviously helps the hand totals. Having played blackjack full time for about 4 years, I have literally seen it all when it comes to brutality, so I never tilt and thus never have to take breaks to clear my head, etc.

If your lifestyle is conducive to it, my primary recommendation would be to at least loosely have a schedule for when you play. It makes some sense to vary based on game conditions. For instance, maybe put in some overtime if you if have some real fish in the game. I try to start playing around 11PM a set 5 nights per week. One thing I do is play 4-tables when their are plenty of fish around, but when the games start to dry up I cut down to 2 or 3 (sometimes even 1) and read the archives while I play. In other words I sacrifice EV when it is cheapest to do so. Sometimes I work in additional nights or time periods, but I consider that my core playing time--just like a real job.

Lastly and probably the most important point is to remember above all else that, in the long run, you get paid by the hand. The more hands you put in, the more $ you get--it's that simple. Stop wins and losses may be necessary sometimes for some players for disciplinary, emotional, or table image purposes--but they are a sacrifice because they result in fewer total hands. But aside from those, any decision regarding when to quit based upon winning and losing is an illusion.

Cartman

[Surfbullet]

Thanks. Great response.

I've realized my mind starts to wander after about an hour of focusing on 4-tabling...so I sit out, grab a snack, read a couple pages of an interesting book, and then sit in again...the quick breather is enough to rejuvinate me.

My biggest issue is that I get up to surf in the AM - like 4:45-5:30ish often - which really kills the "play at night" gameplan. I definitely work best at night anyway, but it hasn't meshed with my surf schedule per se.

Surf

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
I also remember Schneids saying that he had been through 30k+ breakeven stretches also.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is that stretches as in more than one stretch? Did I read that El Diablo also have at least one similar period? How about any of the rest of our heroes?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Jeff W]

You're running bad. Don't change anything.

[helpmeout]

a 40k breakeven stretch probably means you are doing something wrong

People forget that we only have a small edge, a couple of mistakes have probably crept into your game as they did mine.

Ask yourself this

Are you doing a lot of study?
Analysis?
Have you had people look over your hands?
Have you looked over other peoples hand histories?

If you arent then I doubt you have just been unlucky for over 40k hands.

[spydog]

I can't believe you played BJ for 4 years and haven't moved to 10/20. The BR requirements and swings of poker pale in comparison to counting cards.

[ QUOTE ]
I've run breakeven for 58K. I play decent. Just because people post stats after they play 15-20 or 40K doesn't mean those intervals mean anything.


[/ QUOTE ]

BRAHAHAHAAA ..you are so full of crap ..stopping spreading your silly theories please.

Cartman is a one of the better posters in HUSH ..always liked his stuff-very sharp. Looks like a combo of the followingver-tweaking your game, tougher oppponents which is happening in all games, the high probability that your first sample of hands may have beeen on the highish end and lastly running bad..it is so easy to run bad for 5K and 10K hands. Running bad for 20K also happens but rarely. Running bad for 40K is damn ugly. Are your games getting tougher?

Tougher and tougher games plus high rakes means bye-bye to alot of posters around here.

..thats the most probable cause after such an extended breakeven run...that the games are just getting less easy and you havent adjusted. Make the proper adjustments and be perhaps more game selective..it should pass Cartman.