Breakeven for 40K hands (Please comment on these stats)

[cartman]

<font color="blue">After about 150K hands 4-tabling 5/10 (6-max) I was overall almost exactly 2 BB/100</font>. At about that point, thanks to all of you, I made a couple of significant improvements. I improved my river play by value betting more and by folding more, especially to a raise.

<font color="blue">The next 50K hands I ran at about 2.2 BB/100</font>. My results had improved a little, but I was certain that my play had improved substantially and that time would eventually show an even more significant increase in my win rate. Around then I also tightened up some UTG and a tightened my stealing criteria in the CO slightly.

That was about 40K hands ago. I feel quite confident that during this 40K hands I have played the better than ever before. My river play continues to improve. I think that I am both extracting more value on the later streets and saving bets when I am beaten. The only problem is that <font color="blue">I have essentially broken even for the last 40K hands</font>. My aggression on the turn and river are down quite a bit, but I don't think my betting and raising criteria have changed at all.
<font color="blue">I think that I am just running horribly, but I have to accept the possibility that I am playing differenly and that my poor results are a result of some meaningful flaws.</font>

Below are the stats for my recent nightmare. For comparison I have included the corresponding stats for my previous 50K hands in (parenthesis).

Thank you all very much for your insight.

Cartman


____________________________RECENT(OLD)
Total Hands:________________38,313(48,676)
Vol Put $ in Pot:_____________27.27 (27.43)
Vol Put $ in Pot from SB:______36.14 (35.30)
Folded SB To Steal:___________86.20 (86.51)
Folded BB To Steal:___________52.75 (52.36)
Att. To Steal Blinds:__________41.40 (44.02)
Won $ WSF%:_______________38.94 (39.76)
Amount Won:________________951 (10,739)
BB/100 Hands:_______________0.25 (2.21)
Went to SD%:_______________36.09 (35.78)
Won $ at SD%:______________52.58 (52.99)
PF Raise %:_________________18.78 (18.85)


Saw Flop All Hands:_________31.68 (32.25)
Saw Flop Not a Blind:_______20.39 (21.35)
Folded BB to Steal HU:______47.46 (45.09)


1st Action After PF Raise:
Raise:_______________________6.81 (6.39)
Bet:________________________60.83 (61.02)
Call:________________________6.80 (7.52)
Check:_______________________7.39 (7.61)
Check/Raise:_________________0.49 (0.64)
Fold:________________________4.89 (4.74)
No Flop:____________________12.80 (12.08)


_____ Raise%__________Bet%__________Call%_______Check%__ ______Fold%_______AF
Flop:7.51(7.16)___33.09(33.81)___14.90(15.03)___25 .88(25.75)___18.62(18.25)___2.72(2.73)
Turn:5.12(5.43)___28.26(30.39)___18.73(17.38)___33 .21(32.11)___14.68(14.68)___1.78(2.06)
River:4.87(5.56)__27.05(30.47)___22.80(20.98)___34 .24(32.30)___11.05(10.69)___1.40(1.72)

Folded to a River Bet: 34.33(35.75)

Position:
_______VP$IP________BBperHand_______PFR%________We nttoSD%______Won$atSD%_____Won$WSF%
Btn:__26.67(26.84)___+.12(+.11)____24.40(24.51)___ __41.21(42.05)_____55.24(49.78)_____48.45(47.94)
1:____27.80(29.68)___+.07(+.12)____26.72(28.44)___ __42.68(41.93)_____50.65(53.09)_____45.15(47.43)
2:____18.78(18.58)___+.11(+.09)____18.00(17.88)___ __46.15(46.04)_____54.99(55.14)_____49.68(50.20)
3:____13.78(17.48)___+.03(+.07)____13.31(16.85)___ __44.97(46.07)_____47.06(53.11)_____47.88(45.77)
BB:___29.80(29.50)___-.17(-.15)____10.76(9.20)______30.18(28.72)_____51.69(52 .71)_____31.38(31.67)
SB:___36.14(35.30)___-.09(-.05)____17.20(15.91)_____34.83(34.80)_____53.33(54 .94)_____17.20(15.91)

[wackjob]

Didnt' really look at much of your stats, but I am a constant winner everywhere I have played 5/10. The 50K stats I have in my PT DB are ~2BB/100. My first 15K @ 10/20 are breakeven, yet my stats are nearly identical. I am now a believer in the 25K swings.

[ZZZ]

40K break even is brutal. Hope you have rakeback. Maybe get in 20K of 3/6 to try to get back to the winning frame of mind? I love that game, plays like a 5/10 light.

What really jumps out at me is your aggression. You are quite a bit more passive than the average good player. You aren't making continuation bets/raises on the turn enough, IMO.

Also, you are looser from the CO than the button. That sounds very strange to me.

ZZZ

[setjes]

Ur current stats don't seem to differ much from ur past stats so I think u have been running really bad for the last 40k hands. Did u have some nasty downswings? I noticed a couple of things though. Although u say u have improved ur river play, I think ur missing value by not valuebetting enough here. Same goes up for the turn. U might be giving too many free cards here. It might be variance, but over 40k hands .3 points on 2 streets look like alot to me. Maybe u made some slight changes to ur game where this could be the result of? Another thing I noticed was ur relative (in my eyes) high % PFR from the SB. Mine is 11.5 and my overall PFR is around 16%. I'm not saying this is how it should be, but since u where doing very nicely form this postion, why loosen up OOP?

Other than these small changes u made to ur game that might not have improved it, I can't find any "leaks" that could have cost u 2 bb/100 altogether. Maybe ur luckbox was empty for a while, who knows. Either way, good luck.

[MAxx]

i'd consider the possibility that you are running bad for 40k hands.

[Catt]

Just out of curiousity since I enjoy reading your posts: after 200K hands at 5/10 at 2+ BB/100 why haven't you moved to 10/20?

[krishanleong]

I've run breakeven for 58K. I play decent. Just because people post stats after they play 15-20 or 40K doesn't mean those intervals mean anything.

You should also take a shot. I think I'm likely finished moving to 10/20 and my last move started when I was at the bottom of a 450 BB downswing.

Krishan

[baronzeus]

hi cartman


i still think your river aggression is too low. im not exactly sure but if you post your "W$SD when bet river" stat we can find out better if you arent value betting enough.

i also think you aren't peeling enough marginal flops based on your call on flop stat. i tend to peel a lot more, but i also dont steal as much as you so i bet less.


i also think it's possible that you are stealing TOO much. 42% is excessive imo...although i could be wrong. i tend to be careful about steals, especially in the sb. if i think theres a chance that raising will put me in a very bad spot i just fold.

[cartman]

I know that I probably should move up, but I felt like I still had some areas that needed some substantialy improvement. I have only recently learned to value bet the river. I know my recent stretch looks like I don't know how, but I honestly think it is just because I generally haven't had much of a hand when it comes time to value bet the river. My folded to a river bet was also extremely low (around 30%) until fairly recently. Betting the river and folding to a raise heads up was also a foreign concept to me.

I felt like I would rather polish those skills at 5/10 and be better equipped to win at a substantial rate at 10/20 rather than move up and win at a mediocre rate while ironing them out. Also the roughly $100 per hour is a meaningful amount for me. Several more months of the same and I will have made a revolutionary impact on my financial picture. I am extremely ridiculously well bankrolled for 10/20, but I am always paranoid that something will come along and jerk this wonderful rug out from underneath us all. I have seen numerous substantial winners at 5/10 move up and spin their wheels for extended periods of time at 10/20. I realize that it is possible that I may do the same.

I would probably play only two tables at least for a while, and so even if I maintained my same win rate my dollars per hour would remain roughly the same as it is now. If I knew that these games were going to exist even for two years as they are in their current state, I would move up immediately, but another 50K or so in my bank account by the end of the year would make me very happy and I think the safest way to do that is to stay where I am for the time being. Now all I need to do is find a place to get 100% rakeback now that I win 0 BB/100 [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img].

Cartman

[Surfbullet]

Hey Cartman,

I am making it through a 35-40k breakeven stretch currently myself. I also remember Schneids saying that he had been through 30k+ breakeven stretches also.

Your past records show you clearly are a winning player. Be vigilant in maintaining your quality of play (quit when tilting, etc), and keep at it. I wouldn't sweat the short term.

Surf