Three-bet the turn with one pair?

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I a moron for feeling like I am committed to go to the showdown with a hand like this (TPTK or an overpair) heads up?
Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

At the start of the thread, you explicitly stated that the villain might c/r the turn, and even 3-bet the river, with such a wide variety of hands that you can't infer his holdings. If that description is accurate, then I don't see how you can fold AA against such a guy, regardless of the board.

[Surfbullet]

Hey Cartman,

Against aggressive players I think we have to get ourselves to showdown. I had a hand almost exactly like this play out yesterday (except I had AQ on a AJxxx board instead of QJxxx board) and I got 3bet on the river by A3(not 2 pair).

In addition to ensuring we show down the best hand, it is bad for our shania to make aggressive players think they can push us off a strong holding with "just one more raise." We much prefer that, while they give us excess action, they do it relatively predictably. Getting c/r'd(or 3bet) on the river by a busted FD b/c they guy knows we can fold after giving serious action will do nothing but cause trouble.

Surf

[cartman]

OK. I am going to try to put some numbers to this situation. Not a comprehensive calculation (for instance I am neglecting the times that one of us rivers the other), but hopefully enough to get an idea of my concern.


3-BET THE TURN:
Lets assume that we 3-bet the turn. Let's also assume that we have the best hand here 75% of the time (a little optimistic I think, but I want to look at this in a light that favors 3-betting).

Now lets say 5% of the time he is behind he decides to cap the turn and lead the river, we call the turn cap and then fold to his river bet. TOTAL RESULT FROM THE TIME OF HIS TURN CHECKRAISE = 3 BB LOSS.

The rest of the time we are ahead he just calls the turn 3-bet and our river bet. TOTAL RESULT FROM THE TIME OF HIS TURN CHECKRAISE = 8.25 BB GAIN.

Now to the 25% of the time when he is ahead. Lets assume he either he caps and we call the cap and fold to his river bet or he is afraid and just call and we bet the river and he calls. Both cases have the same result. TOTAL RESULT FROM THE TIME OF HIS TURN CHECKRAISE = 3 BB LOSS.


Now let's see if we can make some sense of these estimates.

There is a 75% chance we are ahead on the turn. 95% of those times the story ends happily and we gain 8.25BB from the time of his turn checkraise. (The 6.25BB that are in there at the time, then his call of our turn 3 bet and his call of our river bet). So .75*.95 = .7125

ABOUT 71% OF THE TIME WE GAIN 8.25BB FROM THE TIME OF HIS TURN CHECKRAISE.

In every other scenario we lose 3BB from the time of his checkraise (we put in 2BB to 3-bet the turn and then one more to call his cap). So

ABOUT 29% OF THE TIME WE LOSE 3BB FROM THE TIME OF HIS TURN CHECKRAISE.

<font color="blue">SO THE EV OF OUR DECISION TO 3-BET IS </font>
(.71*8.25) - (.29*3) = 5.8575 - .87 = <font color="blue">ABOUT A 5BB GAIN</font>


JUST CALL DOWN WHEN HE CHECKRAISES THE TURN:

Again we will assume we are in front 75% of the time. In this situation we will gain 7.25BB from the time of his turn checkraise (The 6.25BB that is in there at the time plus his river bet)

ABOUT 75% OF THE TIME WE GAIN 7.25BB FROM THE TIME OF HIS TURN CHECKRAISE.

The other 25% of the time we lose 2BB from the time of his turn checkraise (1 to call the checkraise and 1 to call his river bet).

ABOUT 25% OF THE TIME WE LOSE 2 BB FROM THE TIME OF HIS TURN CHECKRAISE.


<font color="blue">SO THE EV OF OUR DECISION TO JUST CALL DOWN IS</font>
(.75*7.25) - (.25*2) = 5.44 - .5 = <font color="blue">ABOUT A 5BB GAIN</font>


SUMMARY:

I think in these calculations (again they are very primitive and include a lot of assumptions but, I think they are meaningful nonetheless) our estimates of the percentage of the time we are ahead on the turn is very optimistic. I don't think we are actually ahead 75% of the time. Also, I think our estimate that an aggressive opponent will only cap us with a worse hand 5% of the time is also awfully low. But despite the fact that our estimates are very favorable to the case for a 3-bet, it proved to be essentially identical EV wise to just calling down. If the decision is a toss up EV wise, then in my opinion calling down is the better choice because we always get to see our opponents cards at the showdown.

<font color="blue">I reserve the right to be entirely full of sh!t</font>. I certainly appreciate any feedback.

What do you guys think?

Thanks,
Cartman

[DMBFan23]

cartman,

this is a really good analysis. I think this holds very true for the AQ, where we have at most 5 outs if behind. with the AA, we can be more inclined to three bet, (as long as we agree that we have to 3-bet some of the time) but calling down is often prudent too.

it's rare to see the more passive line advocated so even if it's not correct I like having both sides of the discussion.

[sthief09]

I like raising most rivers. you say he's capable of raising if he thinks you missed. if he's drawing dead or slim, you don't want him to fold. you'd rather he bet again on the river. a lot of times when I 3-bet here the guy just folds. also the nice thing about waiting for the river is something like a third diamond might comes and you raise, you usually won't get 3-bet by 2 pair and sometimes even a set. the problem is if he has a decent hand like Q9, and the river is scary, like a J or T (T making AK a straight), then he might check-call. but I think you gain a bet more than you lose a bet.

I feel strongly though that at some point you have to put in another raise

[rory]

You forgot to add sucking out into your equations.

[wheelz]

posting blind: i think you've got to have the best hand here the majority of the time. i think you'd be right to put in 4 bets on the big streets here, if you have to put in 5 sometimes as well so be it, i'm not folding.