$55: Tell me how bad this push is

[EricW]

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I don't think everything can be determined by ICM. If you are good with a big stack and can run over the field, you can pretty much be assured of second if you win a showdown with the big stack, and you'd be a heavy favorite for first, with the blinds getting higher. So if you KNEW that the big stacks range was that he'd push with any two, I don't think that's completely ICM-driven. If you think you are better with a big stack than your opponents, what would your percentage be to get 1-2-3 if you win that push? You can't use ICM to figure it, because it doesn't take your abilities with a big stack into the equation... Forgetting the big stack here pushing with anything, I thought the whole point of the 10X rule is that that's the mathamatical point where you can never make a 3X raise and fold. Well here you have 12X the big blind. If you put the big stacks push range very high, and thought the only way he'd go over the top of your AQ is if he was much better, how would ICM calculate it then? ICM is a great tool for certain push/fold/call decisions, as the SnG Power Tools shows. It isn't applicable in every situation, and you're basically just ignoring my part about the reads and what we can do with the big stack, and assigning the big stack a probability regardless of how much I bet.

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Well if the blinds are high, then the situation differs. However, the main point here is pushing is 1000x better then calling.

Another thing is again it all depends on chip sizes. If you have 2500 chips, the big stack has 4000, another stack has 1400 and an mini stack has 100, would you call a push from the big stack when you have AQ?

[Michael C.]

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If you have 2500 chips, the big stack has 4000, another stack has 1400 and an mini stack has 100, would you call a push from the big stack when you have AQ?

[/ QUOTE ] No, I wouldn't. But in the current situation, I don't think you're near as much a cinch of walking into the money as in your example. That's a situation you can put an ICM value on a lot easier too, since it's a simple push/fold, with ITM around the corner.

[Michael C.]

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You certainly can work out the ICM values for this. Just not via SNGPT.

[/ QUOTE ]ICM) can give you the value of your stack now, and what it would be if you were to double up 65% of the time, and what it would be if you were to bust 35% of the time (zero). What ICM can't figure out is how much extra that big stack is worth to a good player, who can then walk over the rest of the field and practically guarantee himself second place (barring extreme bad luck), with a huge shot at first. That's a weakness of people who rely simply on ICM in every instance, IMO.