another QTo hand

[oreogod]

5/10.
Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in BB. 6max.
Decent (meaning reasonable, TAGish, not out of line-ish)CO raises 1 limper, BTN and SB fold, I call.
FLOP:Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I check-raise him, limper folds, he calls.
Turn:K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I bet, he raises. Your action? (8.25bbs)

Obviously I dont have the effective odds I need to call down to showdown against his range. So is this a turn fold or do u call turn and check/fold river UI?


EDIT: About effective odds. If u dont know what Im talking about here is the math:

Majority Range:
Board: Qc 5d 7h Ks
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 07.2240 % 07.22% 00.00% { QsTh }
Hand 2: 92.7760 % 92.78% 00.00% { QQ+, 77, 55, AQs+, KTs+, AQo+, KJo+ }

Minority Range:
Board: Qc 5d 7h Ks
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 75.8523 % 73.24% 02.61% { QsTh }
Hand 2: 24.1477 % 21.53% 02.61% { JJ-88, AJs-ATs, A7s, QTs+, QJo }

Then u take those numbers and weigh them into a percentage villian holds each one. anywhere from 70/30 to 90/10 works most times. Here I think 90/10 works.

.9(7.22)+.1(75.9) = 14.09% Equity.

and 100%-14.09%=85.91%

85.91%:14.09%= 6.1:1 odds needed to call both a turn and river bet.

Im basically getting 9.25:2 w/ implied odds (or 4.63:1) so not enough to go to showdown.

[admiralfluff]

I would only call this if I knew he had a propensity to making free SD plays in these situations.

Calling turn and c/f river cannot be correct if he always bets the river again given your ranges. If you did call the turn, your estimation of being ahead around 13% of the time would be no less valid, but you would have odds to see SD getting 10.25:1.