I'm turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?

[mterry]

If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's my argument against.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's my argument against.

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is there's at least a 3% margin of error in a sample as small as 2300 hands. Just a guess, based on how I've seen myself portrayed over 1k, 2k, and 5k hand samples.

Rob

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

My guess is there's at least a 3% margin of error in a sample as small as 2300 hands. Just a guess, based on how I've seen myself portrayed over 1k, 2k, and 5k hand samples.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

A 95% confidence interval is plus or minus 1.3%, assuming his true PFR is .12

[Lost Wages]

So he could actually be a much tighter raiser then?

Lost Wages

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
So he could actually be a much tighter raiser then?

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

Not much tighter, but tighter, yes (in the same way that he could be a looser raiser, but not incredibly loose). I figured he was likely around a 6-10% PFR.

Rob

[ResidentParanoid]

This is just a dumb iso-reraise. 6-10% means he's not doing this much. Fold and move on. You made a mistake. All the posts point to the same thing.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

This is just a dumb iso-reraise. 6-10% means he's not doing this much. Fold and move on. You made a mistake. All the posts point to the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your post wasn't all that helpful -- but I'm not sure if it was meant to be.

Your equity is very rarely bad in this situation (it takes him being much less than a 6% PFR for your equity to ever be a lot worse than "fair share"), you have position, you have initiative, and you've got a terrible player subsidizing any losses in the form of dead money.

Even if you disagree with a 3-bet here it's very rarely a "dumb" isoraise. AFAIC you've got a pretty strong holding here and the opportunity to use it to your advantage.

Rob

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's my argument against.

[/ QUOTE ]

so... do you think he raises the exact same hand range from any position or situation?

i think he raises less than 8% of his hands from UTG right?

this means hes going to have to raise more than 8% from somewhere to even it out at 8, i think hes definatley raising light from this spot and we have an easy 3-bet

edit: see my post directly above for more on why

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's fully capable of realizing good preflop isolation plays, blind steals, etc, wouldn't it be likely over 2300 hands that he would do this often enough to push his pfr > 8%?

[/ QUOTE ]

well lets assume hes not aware of position and raising about 8% of his hands here, according to pokerstove, were about even money(53/47 dog) against the top 8% of hands, plus we have the postflop advantages of position and the inititive and can more easily knock out the blinds by 3-betting

and im very confident that hes rasing more hands in this spot than he is on average overall, making this an easy 3-bet

if he opens UTG, we have an easy fold because he is raising less than he is on average overall