KK blind defense...new line

[emil3000]

Seems like this was supposed to go in Aggies thread. Hehe.

[einbert]

Call and check the flop against the vast majority of opponents.

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Reraising to $20 is a really bad play. Raise to $30 to kill set odds. There's nothing I love more than raising ducks on the button and getting priced in for an inevitable stacking every 8 flops.

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Raising to $30: 1.8:1 odds.
Raising to $20: 2.5:1 odds.

Hitting a set: 7.5:1 odds.

How are we pricing him out? Does your example deal with effective odds?

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I think it has to do with cutting down his implied odds. If hero makes it $30, villain has to put in $22 to call. Then if villain flops a set, the best he can do win the $9 in the pot + hero's $157 stack = $166. Putting in $22 to win $166 on a 7.5:1 shot is just about 0 EV. If hero doesn't get stacked every time or if villain puts more money in postflop with an unimproved pair, that's a clear -EV call. If hero only raises to $20, villain gets 166:12 implied odds, which puts hero in a tough spot postflop if villain starts showing agression on a ragged board. Does he have QQ or JJ or did he hit a set? If you fold the best hand, you lose a ton of value, but if you'll call off your whole stack with an overpair, you've given him good odds to hit a set with that preflop raise. If you make it $30 preflop, he can't call profitably even if he knows you'll just auto-push any flop.

[swarm]

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Got to raise this more preflop, make it at least 30 with 3 limpers.

A 3bet is going to pot commit you, You have to bet at least 150. That would put over 50% of your stack in the middle.

OOP this is going to get ugly. All 3betting does is gets you committed versus a set and folds out hands you beat unless you put him on a draw. I don't see a flush draw doing this too often however.

Given the fact he min-raised with a player waiting to act after him i'm probably folding. If you had raised more preflop however and gotten HU, i'm calling and check raising all in on the turn.

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lol

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Whoops, posted this in the wrong thread.

[-Skeme-]

That's kind of what I was figuring. So he'll stand to lose $22 7/8 times if he autofolds flop without set to Hero's jam, but he'll win Hero's stack 1/8 times when he gets the set? What about redraws, an Ace high flop, etc? Do we just not figure these because there are too many variables that nothing is certain?

[Hattifnatt]

Make a normal reraise to $22 or so.

[Maulik]

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Make a normal reraise to $22 or so.

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Raise to $25 -30.