PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison

[RoundTower]

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The power of the baby flush draw!


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It doesn't matter how high the flush draw is. If you had one pair, the nut flush draw and some backdoor low/straight possibilities you'd think you were doing fine against aces. The reason the hand is bad in general is because you might be up against a better flush draw, or to a lesser extent a better backdoor low/two pair made.

I feel like I'm stating the obvious, but some people are amazed by the power of the "baby" flush draw.

[Buzz]

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It doesn't matter how high the flush draw is.

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Round Tower - The higher the better, I would think.

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The reason the hand is bad in general is because you might be up against a better flush draw, or to a lesser extent a better backdoor low/two pair made.

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I guess you're refering to the 2345s hand.

I ran a sim against against 10000 random hands (one at a time).

hand....high....low..scoop...total
2345s....240...1279...3260...4779
random..1280....231...3710...5221

So 2345s doesn't do well against inknown cards, one-on-one. And 2345s does even worse when heads up against AA48s.

hand....high....low..scoop...total
2345s....608....812...2220...3640
AA48s....804....600...4956...6360

It's just this particular flop (or a similar flop) that makes a favorable situation for 2345s.

Seems to me that's the way it usually is. The quality of the starting hand doesn't matter as much as how well the hand fits with the flop.

I'm not saying the quality of the starting hand isn't important. It is. You have a better chance of catching a fit with the flop and going on to triumph if you have a quality starting hand.

But as soon as you see the flop, the flop fit is what assumes primary importance.

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some people are amazed by the power of the "baby" flush draw.

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I was sort of joking, but I do think that having suited cards rather than a rainbow hand makes a difference. The higher the flush or flush draw the better, but even a baby flush is better than no flush - and that's especially true, I think, when you have what is primarily a low draw hand. If you make a baby flush along with your low, you often end up with a scooper or 3/4 hand.

I'm certainly not suggesting drawing to baby flushes against multiple opponents. But a baby flush draw does add equity.

At any rate, isn't it interesting how much the baby flush draw adds here, when one-on-one? Seems to turn everything around, making the 2345s hand the favorite over the mighty AA48s hand.

When one-on-one before the flop, if you flop a baby flush draw, you're not likely to be up against a better flush draw. Only roughly one time out of six will you be up against another flush draw. (Here's the last step in my math:
24318/148995 = 0.1632 = ~1/6).

Buzz

I'm surprised this thread is still breathing.

Somebody nailed it, but to reiterate, the problem with the LAG's hand is that most times he plays back at you, he will be a significant dog. Virtually all his equity is coming from a 7th-nut flush, as has been pointed out; relying on that equity again and again will cost him in the long run.

Just make a mental note or buddy list him, and you can ream him most of the time you play. Also, although you might alter your play against an idiot like this (reduce freq of continuation bets, etc), you should not make sweeping adjustments to your game, such as avoiding the pot-bet on the flop here against a general opponent, or pushing 5-high club draw with bottom pair.

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If I put someone on AA and dont think that they have the Ac or a flush draw then heads up this is worth-while to take.

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How are you going to decide that they don't have the A-high flush draw? If you hold the naked A, then sure. But if you try to go around picking off AA hands on a two-flush board with a measly pair or whatever like the LAG did in this hand, you'll go broke.

The 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a key card for his hand. These are spots where you're going to find yourself fairly often in typical O8B online games (i say online because it isnt spread anywhere live, really). There's a lot of gamble in this game, so get in there and do it. With this flop, he's actually not missed it that bad, at all, and with that damn 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] it gives him a ton of backdoor straight draws, not to mention his two pair hands are now live.




Tex

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The 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a key card for his hand. These are spots where you're going to find yourself fairly often in typical O8B online games (i say online because it isnt spread anywhere live, really). There's a lot of gamble in this game, so get in there and do it. With this flop, he's actually not missed it that bad, at all, and with that damn 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] it gives him a ton of backdoor straight draws, not to mention his two pair hands are now live.

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If you're not dumping the LAG's hand regularly, you will go broke.

Yeah, in PL. That goes w/o saying.