Hand late in tourney ....

[WSOPWinner2005]

I have 77 preflop with about 220K, average stack is about 200K - guy up against me has 350K and has been pushing preflop continously and being called down with hands such as AJ - all holding up..

Blinds are 4/8K - I make it 24K to go, they immediately come over top all-in. I know for a fact, well my gut tells me.. This person has AKo/AKs/AQo/AQs - I call after 10 seconds of thought.. thought only about whether I thought I was ahead or not.. they turn over AKo

so I'm a 2% favorite - it's what I wanted.. still not thrilled... The K comes on the turn. I'm out 99th out of some 1850 or so ..


I used to kick my computer and say "They hate me" etc.. But I thought logically about it this time. And although I was laying down AJ in the BB to a LP raise of 4XBB continously through the trny.. not caring whether I was beat or not... I couldn't lay this hand down if I thought I was ahead.

Is this a flaw in my game? Different people will have different thoughts so I'd like to hear from as many people as possible. My thoughts now, of course, are I should of held off until I was in better shape. I was not short stacked and risked everything here because 'my gut;' told me I had the hand PF.

Thoughts ?

[cocofrite]

"I'm a 2 % favorite - it's what I wanted"

You don't want that unless you're the worst player at the table.
I fold even if I'm 100 % sure he's got ak/aq.

And you shouldn't lay down AJ continuously against a LP raiser.

[WSOPWinner2005]

[ QUOTE ]
"I'm a 2 % favorite - it's what I wanted"

You don't want that unless you're the worst player at the table.
I fold even if I'm 100 % sure he's got ak/aq.

And you shouldn't lay down AJ continuously against a LP raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I asked the question.. I knew I was only a two percent favorite - Yes, I was sure... And I made a call based on that. I'm assuming it was the wrong decision just wanted some verification on my poor decision.

Middle to LP raiser.. It was done in 4 hands, every time it was a tight player who was in M-LP (3 behind button typically). I called UTG with KQo against someone I determined as a wreckless player and dragged a huge pot when the K flopped. Calling in that position with AJ you need to have a read on your opponent being weak or playing position IMHO - again if I am wrong correct me.. I came here to talk about my strategy, learn, and improve it.

Never fold when you're a favorite. Especially with that kind of dead money in the pot. Whether you can actually know AA-88 are out of the question, is what makes it a bad play. (Since, I think quite a bit of the time he does have you drawing to two outs.)

[WSOPWinner2005]

Tiger, in that respect I would tend to agree with you in 99% of the cases. I had played with this guy who had a dominating stack for 3 out of the four hours of the trny though - and laid to him many times where others called and I saw what he held; very weak every time. In fact he was chip leader after he took me out - He ended up dropping out of the trny a mere 10 spots later.

That's where my dilemna lies - I told myself at first "I got my money in the middle as a favorite" but then I realized i should of also been strategic about my situation in the tourney and taking a risk with a 2% edge isn't being strategic.

[cocofrite]

There's a section in hoh (volume 2 i think) where he analyzes the math for folding your ak against a rr, look it up, it's interesting. I don't have the book here tho [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

4/8k blinds, you have 220k, you raise to 24k, some guy pushes all-in. Pot contains 220+24+12 = 256k, it costs you 196k to call. You have 256 to 196 odds or 196/(196+256) = 43.4% equity. If you're 43.4% against his range, you're even money to call. This is how you calculate. If, in fact, you are 100% sure your opponent has AKo or AKs, then this is a substantially +EV (Expected Value) call, since you're close to 54% equity against a range of AKo and AKs. HOWEVER, this is assuming you've identified his range correctly as AKo and AKs ONLY. Unless you have a super, super read, or your opponent flips his AK face up and shows it to you, then your estimate of your opponent's range is probably too narrow. Villain won't play 88-JJ the same way? You said your gut. A problem many players have is assigning your opponent to a specific hand w/ insufficient information. It's folded to the button, who raises to 3x bb. You think, he probably holds some junk like KJ, you have AT in the bb and call. Then the flop comes T85, you say to yourself, oh well, KJ missed that flop, so i'll bet. You bet, your opponent raises, you're SURE he's bluffing since you read your opponent for KJ, you reraise all-in, he calls and shows 88. Many times you won't be able to assign your opponent to a specific hand until the turn or even river. You'll have an idea, a RANGE, of the hands your opponent may have. Now, this is barring super reads, betting patterns, etc. Against tight opponents, it's easier to assign a range since they play fewer hands. Vice versa for loose opponents.

Here's a good article that touches on some common No Limit Hold'em Errors: http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...amp;m_id=65568

If you had a 100% reliable read that your opponent has AK in the 77 situation above, then call. If you expand that range to AK-AT, JJ-66 (since you reason that your opponent won't push w/ AA-QQ but would just raise a small amount to induce a call), then you'll get a different number for equity.

Here's a quick example for calculating equity.

You identified his range as AK-AT, 66-JJ. After you take out 77 from the deck...

AK-AT = 16 combos each; 5*16 = 80 combos
88-JJ = 6 combos each; 4*6 = 24 combos
77 = 1 combo
66 = 6 combos

Total combos = 80+24+1+6 = 111 combos
Your equity = 80/111*(.54) + 24/111*(.2) + 1/111*(.5) + 6/111*(.8) = .48

You're a slight dog against the above range. You only need to have .434 equity, as dictated by pot odds. With the above range, it's still a call w/ 77. If you trim his range to AK-AQ, 88-JJ, then your equity becomes .396, and it's a fold. Try doing some of these calculations. It looks like a pain in the ass, but you'll get the hang of it.

Your gut told you your opponent held AK. This is fine, your gut probably thought this because a good % of the time, villain will show up w/ AK or AQ. But next time, ask your gut, does villain make this same play w/ 99 too? Be flexible when assigning a starting range. Don't forget pocket pairs. If you want to become a better player, read more, do math like this, and be a flexible thinker. Please read the Anthology.

[BPA234]

Relative to position in tourney, chip stack and your confidence at the table, I believe a fold here is right. I believe folding 77 with a laggy player pushing makes the most sense. You will likely have a better opportunity to get all your money in as a stronger favorite, AK vs. AJ etc.

[erc007]

I think that if you want an analysis of your play, you have to give more info relating to your table position. I think that raising to T24K is fine with 77 from MP (especially late MP, ie: after 5-6 folds.) I would not however raise this hand from UTG or UTG+1 unless I was ready to fold to a reraise. IMO, being all-in w/77 is fine if you are sure that you are against two overcards, but even bad/reckless players can pick up TT and JJ too. You're in ok shape as far as your stack goes your "M" is 15 - (see Harrington on Hold 'em Endgame) indicating that you're going to have to get aggressive with med pairs and high-cards at this stage. It's a fact of online tourneys that you're going to have to win a race or two (or 5 if you're not getting dealt) to cash. In the late stages of any tourney, you have to be ready to play any hand that you open with to the end, once I open with 77, I have made up my mind that I'm calling a raise unless it comes from the tightest player at the table.
I think that it might help you to analyze beforehand what you are going to do if you get re-raised.

[WSOPWinner2005]

Thanks for the posts everyone - I was in Late MP, 4 or 5 behind the button. I don't know how my position would be relative to the actual decision on whether to call the all-in but I can see how it would be relative to my initial 3XBB play.. Which I don't think was bad play.

I had a consistently varying table image and I don't think anyone there had any kind of read on me except I would fold alot even if I 3 or 4 bet preflop and someone came over the top of me big. This guy had played with me the whole trny and knew this very well - as I said he had done it himself plenty of times. So I felt if he was going to want a call he would of micro raised or maybe raised to 72K to induce a call. Again, he was a LAG player though..

As far as being able to put him on a hand, I am rarely one to say I "KNOW" what the guy has - but this was a situation where I had no doubt he had a relatively weak holding and I was not a dog. I had seen the way he played middle pocket pairs and he raised about 3 X the original raise or smooth called. The way he played big pairs was limping every time.. and inducing action on the turn - even when the board didn't look good. All in all a very weak player, none the less I am still not sure exactly what I should have done here.

My mind tells me right now it was a bad move - Given how I felt about my situation in that particular tournament and my competition.. I should of waited for a better spot.

At the same time, getting all your chips in when your ahead is all you can ask for. I guess it isn't really a question about so much whether the hand itself was played right - but more about tournament strategy.