Not sure about his one...

SparkyDog · #1 11-12-2005, 04:12 PM

Villian is TAGish and knows relative hand values.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB

Stefan_K · #2 11-12-2005, 04:42 PM

why did you bet?

Starzinger · #3 11-12-2005, 04:48 PM

Why didn't you bet turn?

mute · #4 11-12-2005, 04:50 PM

Bet the turn instead of the river.

BongRips · #5 11-12-2005, 05:02 PM

I have no problem with the turn check, I check behind when I pick up outs like that the majority of the time. I would not bet the river, anything that calls you beats you, there is no value whatsoever in that bet.

SparkyDog · #6 11-12-2005, 06:48 PM

Dodge a checkraise that I have to call because of my flush outs. And so I can raise him if he value bets pocket pairs and queens if I hit my spade on the river.

SparkyDog · #7 11-12-2005, 06:56 PM

"I would not bet the river, anything that calls you beats you, there is no value whatsoever in that bet."

The value of this river bet is > -1BB. I'm not sure how often I'm getting called by worse aces, but better hands bet this river close to 100% of the time. It really looks like Villian is trying to catch a bluff here and I've got the nut no pair.

FWIW, Villian had ATo.

SparkyDog · #8 11-12-2005, 06:58 PM

SIRYESSIR!

Spicymoose · #9 11-12-2005, 07:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dodge a checkraise that I have to call because of my flush outs. And so I can raise him if he value bets pocket pairs and queens if I hit my spade on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't play scared. Sure, sometimes you get check raised, but you can easily call that check raise with your equity. River bet is really bad.

Edit: The amount of times he check raises vs the amount of times he calls with a worse hand is small. And, even if it weren't so small, you end up improving on the river a good portion of the time.

SparkyDog · #10 11-12-2005, 07:48 PM

It's not playing scared.

Assuming he checkraises me with 88, 77, KQ, and AQ I have a weighted average of 10 outs and 21% equity. I lose 1.16BB's everytime he checkraises me, equity wise. He also reduces my effective odds to 3.75-1 when he pulls off a checkraise, and I'm a 4.6-1 dog to his check-ranging range. So by betting this turn I manage to turn the nut flush draw with overcards into a losing play.

Assuming he calls with a worse hand (which he won't do a whole lot of, let's assume worse aces) with 3 outs with 2% equity I gain 0.96 BB's.

When he calls me with a pair, I lose 0.348 BB's.

I'll let you come up with some reasonable figures for how often Villian has to hold a worse hand and call to outweigh when he has a better hand. Not to mention any money gained from bluffs induced by my turn check from hands he wouldn't have called the turn with.