Middle set vs. flop checkraise on coordinated board

LuvDemNutz · #1 05-05-2005, 03:15 PM

No real reads on Villain except that in the few orbits I've played with him I haven't seen him do anything out of the ordinary.

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) converter

MP2 ($389.4)
MP3 ($879.7)
CO ($504.55)
Button ($662.7)
SB ($431)
BB ($598.15)
UTG ($461.3)
Hero ($724.5)
MP1 ($457.8)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $8, Hero calls $8, MP1 calls $8, 2 folds, CO calls $8, 2 folds, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($42) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $25, MP1 folds, CO folds, BB raises to $114.9, UTG folds...Hero???

What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

TrailofTears · #2 05-05-2005, 03:32 PM

How about a call here? You have position and can see how he reacts to both a) your flat-call, and b) a blank/non-blank turn.

I am not willing to give this hand up (obviously), but I think there is no reason to throw a third bet on this flop. He has an under/overset or a huge draw (AKs), and neither one is a hand that you want to get into a raising war with at this point.

-T

Marginilizer · #3 05-05-2005, 03:38 PM

Ah, the imfamous train wreck flop. I've been in this situation many, many times. The only thing you can really hope for on flops like this is to get heads up. At least then, you can reduce the odds that someone will draw out on you. You're already heads up at this point and I would put BB on two pair (specifically 4 5). If he has a straight, it's the wheel and he doesn't have a flush draw with it. I seriously doubt that 3 6 is in there amd I'm also disinclined to put him on a set of 5s. It's also possible that he's on a particularly juicy draw like As6s or 6s7s. I would call the reraise and bet the pot on any blank on the turn. If a spade comes, check it to him and be ready to fold.

LuvDemNutz · #4 05-05-2005, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ah, the imfamous train wreck flop. I've been in this situation many, many times. The only thing you can really hope for on flops like this is to get heads up. At least then, you can reduce the odds that someone will draw out on you. You're already heads up at this point and I would put BB on two pair (specifically 4 5). If he has a straight, it's the wheel and he doesn't have a flush draw with it. I seriously doubt that 3 6 is in there amd I'm also disinclined to put him on a set of 5s. It's also possible that he's on a particularly juicy draw like As6s or 6s7s. I would call the reraise and bet the pot on any blank on the turn. If a spade comes, check it to him and be ready to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have position - he acts first on the turn.

Marginilizer · #5 05-05-2005, 03:48 PM

Whoops. Didn't realize you had position. That's somewhat more difficult because, if I were him, I'd bet the turn regardless of what it was just to get information. On a non-spade turn, I think you're best move is all-in if he bets. On a spade turn, I'd be prepared to fold unless he severely under bet the pot.

LuvDemNutz · #6 05-05-2005, 04:40 PM

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) converter

MP2 ($389.4)
MP3 ($879.7)
CO ($504.55)
Button ($662.7)
SB ($431)
BB ($598.15)
UTG ($461.3)
Hero ($724.5)
MP1 ($457.8)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $8, Hero calls $8, MP1 calls $8, 2 folds, CO calls $8, 2 folds, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($42) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $25, MP1 folds, CO folds, BB raises to $114.9, UTG folds, Hero calls $89.90.

Turn: ($271.80) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $268.8

Thoughts?

Marginilizer · #7 05-05-2005, 04:49 PM

All in. You might as well hand him your chips if you flat call him because he's moving on in on the river. Either you're beat or you're not.

LuvDemNutz · #8 05-05-2005, 04:59 PM

I guess my question is this - the flop checkraise could mean a lot of things:

- Overcards with a flush draw (AsKs) (although I think this is unlikely since I would expect a reraise with this hand)
- Some kind of combination flush and straight draw (7s6s, 5s6s)
- Top pair and a flush draw (As5s)
- Overpair (88-JJ)

- Set of 222
- Set of 555
- Flopped wheel

When Villian pots the Turn - do we still think he has one of the drawing hands listed above?

Put differently, what percentage of time do we expect Villain to fire a pot-sized bet on the turn even when his draw doesn't get there?

Now I realize that an aggressive/tricky Villain would do just that to induce a fold from a better hand - but I am talking about the average PP player.

runnerunner · #9 05-05-2005, 05:24 PM

I would almost have to put him on an overpair here. He raised UTG, so unless he is VERY LAG, he doesn't have 55 or A4. I don't think he would lead with a pot sized bet on turn with a flush draw. The way the hand was played probably puts you on a flush draw with your flat call of his raise on the flop. His pot bet on the turn is trying to push you off of your draw. I would push here. If he raised UTG with A3 or 55 then you have to pay him.

LuvDemNutz · #10 05-05-2005, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would almost have to put him on an overpair here. He raised UTG, so unless he is VERY LAG, he doesn't have 55 or A4. I don't think he would lead with a pot sized bet on turn with a flush draw. The way the hand was played probably puts you on a flush draw with your flat call of his raise on the flop. His pot bet on the turn is trying to push you off of your draw. I would push here. If he raised UTG with A3 or 55 then you have to pay him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is BB - UTG folded on the flop.