What should I expect from my bankroll growth ?

[bozlax]

What about freebankroll? I didn't use it, but I've heard about it a lot.

[deception5]

Yeah www.instantbankroll.com is not a bad plan. I pointed a few of my friends there (of course they lost it) but the offer is legitimate, something like $75 free at party and $25 bonus. Might be worth waiting until you are confident you are beating the game to use it though as the lowest limit is .50/1.00.

[VoraciousReader]

I'm playing .05/.10 right now too. I've actually played as high as .50/1, but, like you, underbankrolling+downside of variance...(plus an addiction to SNGs...hmmm...are you sure you're not me?)

Anyway, I have a couple of questions and comments. I play at Stars, and at anything below .25/.50, there's no rake. I took a few minutes to research Pacific, and it looks as though they ARE raking pots over $1. Is that right? If so, that is money spilling out of your pocket that could be adding to your bankroll.

General consensus around here is games are softer at Pacific than Stars, but the right Stars table is pretty loose...60-75% seeing flops at the .05/.10 level. And if you happen to sit at the wrong table, you can sometimes bully them out of a few pots while you're waiting for your blind to come around so you can move. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

So if you're paying rake to Pacific, I'd at least think about a move.

Also, in your third post, you said that you are sometimes not betting TOP PAIR on the flop??? Please stop this right away. Even with the suckouts, you are often still the favorite here. I know that you remember all the times top pair lost for you, but do you remember all the times someone beat you with 2 pair...and their first pair didn't come until the turn? Do you remember the runner-runner straights and flushes from people that might have folded to a flop bet? I know there aren't a LOT of folds at this level...but you have to give them a chance.

More importantly, (since, you're right, they're not generally folding), when your Top Pair holds up, or even improves, you have left a BUNCH of money on the table. It may seem like 1 small bet, but if you make 1 small flop bet and get 7 callers, that is 3.5 more BBs if you win at SD. On the times you don't bet, you save .5 BB if you lose at SD. I don't see how this could possibly be profitable. Basically, if the number of people calling your flop bet is X, you only have to win with your top pair more than 1 in X times and you're money ahead. This is limit poker, so you can't make it up later. Bets you pass up are gone forever. You're paying them when you lose, but you're not making them pay you when you win.

Anyway, you sound like you've had a rough time recently. I admire your perseverance and dedication to your poker game. Good luck, and post some hands so we can advise/cheer you on.

Amanda

[WSOP Bound]

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More importantly, (since, you're right, they're not generally folding), when your Top Pair holds up, or even improves, you have left a BUNCH of money on the table. It may seem like 1 small bet, but if you make 1 small flop bet and get 7 callers, that is 3.5 more BBs if you win at SD. On the times you don't bet, you save .5 BB if you lose at SD. I don't see how this could possibly be profitable. Basically, if the number of people calling your flop bet is X, you only have to win with your top pair more than 1 in X times and you're money ahead. This is limit poker, so you can't make it up later. Bets you pass up are gone forever. You're paying them when you lose, but you're not making them pay you when you win.

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I was orginally going to reply to the OP's post about not raising TPTK, but I think I will just add on to this a bit instead. To start out, if you want to be a winning player you really need to stop this. Your thought process indicates that you are falling into the misconception that you can't protect your hand unless your opponents will fold. Getting opponents to fold is just one aspect of hand protection, the bigger picture includes getting your opponent to make a mistake. For a tight opponent this mistake may be folding a hand that they should have called with or even raised. Against looser opponents this mistake typically is calling when they should fold. It really doesn't matter that they still have a chance to outdraw you, because they made a mistake by calling and every time your opponents make a mistake you profit in the long term.

In any game of poker we can't eliminate the effect of luck. Some hands it will be on our side, during other hands it will turn against us. This is really the true meaning of variance. In the end the luck factor means that we never have a huge edge during any particular session over our opponents. No matter how much better we are at the mechanics of the game luck has a way of minmizing our edge. Rake and blinds also have a way of cutting this edge even further. Everytime you pass on a profitable situation you are shrinking that edge even more, and eventually it will get to the point that you have no edge at all or worse yet you have actually become a losing player. In the end you must make the plays that you know will be profitable in the long term, and get beyond that temption to think in a results oriented manner. Always remember that the other effect that luck has on our beloved game is that you can play perfectly and lose and it is also possible to play horribly and win. Just be confident that the correct decisions will pay off in the long run. It's just that the long run is really long.

If you want to minimize your variance, and I understand why you would want to having played on a small bankroll myself this is not the way to do things. I have had reasonable sucess at this by tightening up my preflop hand selection, but playing super-aggressive postflop. Basically this entails playing only AA-77, AK & AQ. When playing in this mode I raise all of those hands preflop, with the exception of 77 & 88 which I limp from EP. This is far from ideal hand selection for optimal EV, but playing this tight will give you much better chances of winning when you choose to get into the mix.

I rambled on much more than I had intended to, but hopefully this helps a little.

This is my first post on the forums, but as I'm playing the same limits as you at Pacific I thought I might have something to offer. I started out playing .05/.10 at Pacific with a $50 deposit, and soon dropped to $40 before I realised I needed to re-evaluate my play. Funnily enough, it was the Carson which you have that really turned my play around. Over the next 3 weeks I averaged about 25-30BB/100 hands (approx as I don't have PT yet) and I started playing .25/.50 slightly underbankrolled at $110 as the games felt so soft. Unbelievably, my high win rate continued as I won 140BB over the next 450 hands to have my BR at $180 before a bit of a lean week has set in, and I've dropped 50BB as the cards have dried up and the suckouts increased. I'm confident I can play through it though, the game is pretty swingy at this level.

I absolutely believe that my turnaround has come from reading here, and from beginning to understand what Carson and others have to say about adapting your game to the style of the table. I don't expect that my winrate will continue at the level it is now, but I think I can beat this and BR myself for .50/1. Probably at a new site where I can get rakeback though, I'm just beginning to understand how much can be regained from this. I guess my point is that if I can adapt to this, so can you. Stick with the reading here and in some good books (SSHE is definitely on my list) and I'm sure things will come good.
Best of luck

[adsman]

Dear AJ,

Firstly, welcome to the forums. I read through this whole thread, (as I'm home sick in bed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]) and a couple of things jumped out at me.

I really think that you're worrying too much about your bankroll and thus you're playing scared. Not betting TPGK on the flop is just atrocious play which will cause your win-rate to suffer over the short and long term. To whit, organise yourself to have 300BB at whatever level you're playing and concentrate on playing the best poker that you can. If that means dropping down to the Stars .02/.04 then do it. Or you can follow some of the excellent advice already here about bonuses and the like.

Also, stop looking at the cashiers box all the time. Try this out for size. Get yourself organised for the level you need to play at and then play for a week without checking how you're going financially. Just play the best poker that you can every time. If you start making sub-optimal plays because you're scared of throwing in the money then you're going to be throwing away your money.

For the future. Read, Getting started in holdem and then small stakes hold em. Most of the books that you mentioned are pretty bad. You can add Theroy of Poker to this list after you've really digested those two books.

Get pokertracker. As someone else said you can download it for free and plug in your first 1000 hands before you need to fork out the $50. This is the best $50 I have ever spent.

That's all. Good luck and keep posting.

ads.

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Over the next 3 weeks I averaged about 25-30BB/100 hands

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Holy crap, you should be writing the poker books.

[VJ_]

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So I guess I am just wondering what to expect... Should I be happy if I come away from the table after 4 hours of play (at the .05/.10c table - and I only play one table) up only $1 ?

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Is this about 3BB/100 on average? - .5/.10 tables are very soft and you can certainly expect a much better rate than that. 5-7BB/100 is very achievable (my stats over a 30K hands sample when I played those limits), even at raked tables like UB's.

I appreciate the feedback and encouragement - you guys are awesome! I am only sorry I didn't spend more time here last summer when I first found this site...

There is so much to respond to here that I am sure I will miss some things but I will do what I can.

- Firstly let me say that when I said I have taken to not betting top pair, I did not say top kicker, and I DID say "on occasion" - meaning I use my judgement, firstly based on how much (read 'how little') is in the pot, secondly, based on who else is in the hand, thirdly, if I am holding a hand in the BB, for example, with which I would never have voluntarily entered the pot in the first place, I am willing to let it go without betting at a possibly dangerous flop against 6 opponents who all limped.

An example might be if I am holding Js 3c in the BB, and I end up seeing the flop in an unraised pot, with 6 limpers and the flop comes Jd 10h 9h. Are you going to try to convince me that my betting here a great idea? I see my leading off with a bet here as a mistake. I doubt there is anything out there that can convince me that my making a lead bet here would be a good idea.

- I am not playing with scared money - I won my initial BR in a freeroll and got it up to over $100 from that initial $10 win (actually 2 freerolls in which I won $5 each, and I used the $10 to play SNGs which I won, so I turned the $10 into $113 in less than a week) - I have already cashed out half of it, and if I lose what I have left, I still made money for nothing.

- Yes, Pacific has a rake on even the smallest pots...
$0.01 for every $0.20

- I signed up for the instant bankroll - that sounds aweseome - thanks for that! (assuming I get accepted)

- On the up side, I got a check in the mail today for a bit of cash so I will be able to pick up SSHE and maybe another book, although none of my local bookstores carries any of the 2+2 books [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

- When playing against players this bad, you have to catch good cards to win. It is that simple. These people call 4 bets preflop with Q2o and the worst part is they end up winning with those hands because the flop comes Q62 and I can't believe anyone is dumb enough to call 4 bets PF with two of those (esp while I am holding AQs) - but it happens, often... Yes, I understand that it is from players like that that I will make the most money in the _long_ term because they will lose more often making mistakes like that, but in the _short_ term, it stings and makes me cringe... And then I come here and explain why I sometimes don't want to bet into a scary flop based on a judgement call, and you guys tell me I am wrong, even though it is that very thing that is my one huge leak - I spew chips being aggressive just like you guys say I should be, losing most times to crap hands, winning a lot less than I 'should' be (like above when I hold AQ and villain holds Q2), and it makes me make more judgement calls that way - but isn't making those kinds of decisions part of good poker? Knowing when to lay down is a good thing - the best players sometimes lay down the best hand - it happens, because it is sometimes the right thing to do.

For that matter, at these levels, MOST players are clueless and wouldn't even know how to trap - some bet hyper aggressively with draws, yes, but most actually ONLY bet when they have something, and if they only _call_ a bet on the flop, then _lead_ out with a bet on the turn, it is usually (almost always) because they have made their hand at that point. They aren't wise enough to slow play, or check raise, or value bet (except a few who raised preflop and decide the right thing to do is bet bet bet to the river with nothing because they raised preflop - but those players, at this limit, win next to nothing because most people fold to their aggression, and I see them lose a lot more than they win).

- Not betting into a pot when you _may_ have the best hand is only a small mistake, but in certain circumstances, it _is_ the right thing to do, and at worst, it is only a small mistake, whereas spewing 8BB into a pot that was only 2BB to begin with, all because some people in a forum told me that I have to maximize my edge when I can, well, you can see where I am going with this. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

It might be easier for you to understand if you can see that I am not _positive_ in those circumstances if I have the edge, and if I am not sure, I would rather fold and risk losing the 2BB I have already put in the pot than risk the next 8BB I will have to call on the turn and river, for the risk of winning the same. Also, those kinds of circumstances are somewhat rare, so as Ed Miller would say, this is a small mistake, at worst, in my opinion.

Besides, putting money in the pot when you should fold is ALSO a mistake, but it is easier to control if one is observant enough and can use the correct judgement on when to make that decision, right?

- FYI, when I was talking about playing SNGs to increase my BR, I was talking about playing multiple $1.50 ones (like I did when I first started with the $5 wins to get this far), not one $10 one.

- I wasted the $10 at Royal Vegas when I first started playing last year.

- I also had deposited $50 at Poker Stars last summer (when I first started playing hold em) and made $50 a day the first two days - then I blew it all playing out of my limit - but, yes, I was playing and doubling my bankroll daily with very little experience - I just had a feel for the game. I appreciate more knowledge, but that extra knowledge has also given me artificial limits and I still don't know enough that it is a bad thing, in a way - a little knowledge is dangerous...

- I don't have the ability to look at a flop and instantly count how many outs will give me a definite winner, in a number sense, but I can tell by looking at it and the size of the pot and the number of people in the pot (and whether it was raised preflop, etc) whether or not I want to get involved, ie what are my chances of winning this particular hand.

That is how I play - I am learning other skills, like trying to work that statistical edge, but since I really don't understand it well enough, there isn't much point, _yet_.

I understand the concept of pot odds, etc, but it doesn't help if I can't instantly apply it - I know that will come in time, and when I get more books under my belt - for now I am satisfied with looking at the size of the pot and calling it based on that (and my outs or whether I have the best hand/draw).

Confusing enough?

Build Bankroll:
Participate in bonus opportunities (with reputable companies)
It is a good idea to read Small Stakes Hold Em like the gentleman recommended as well as the bankroll management section of Internet Hold Em.
Reserve between 200 and 300x BB for the games you are in
.25/.50 needs about $100-$150