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#1
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Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?
[ QUOTE ]
I want to say insta call but i see AA-KK sOOOO often come out of this line. It's so obvious. That said, since AA-KK is shown so often, is 2-1 really a good price here? Don't get me wrong, I will usually call, but your gonna get shown AA-KK most of the time, from my observations. I'd say about 65% at the most conservative estimate. I dont know though, its seems more like 80% of the time to me. [/ QUOTE ] Dude, are we playing at the same site ?? Do you have PokerTracker? Can you post some data to support this wild hypothesis that the players are good ?? I have hand histories of all-ins in the first level with K-4. These can not be the same players. You remember the AA-KK and confirmation bias clouds your judgement perhaps? -- tjh |
#2
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Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?
I think he's talking specifically about the limp-push line taken here by the villain. But I've seen it often enough by mid-pairs to say it's probably not AA/KK 80%.
As for this hand, I dunno...with your line I think I would go ahead and call after committing 1/4 of my stack. However, I think there could be an argument to just limping with all the preflop limps infront and play this as a drawing hand. |
#3
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Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?
[ QUOTE ]
I think he's talking specifically about the limp-push line taken here by the villain. But I've seen it often enough by mid-pairs to say it's probably not AA/KK 80%. [/ QUOTE ] I think the BB pushed so this is not a limp-push. If UTG limps and then pushes to a raise.... I am seriously concerned. BB push ... less concerned. UTG strong hands are concerned about not getting any callers so they limp with monsters, once raised they push. I posted some first round all-in data about a week ago. My sample was small but it did show some really low hands going allin in level one. here they are... I did not have all that many SNG's in my Pokertracker DB. From what I did have I grabbed the hands from all the times that players went all-in and were called by another player in level one on party. Here are they hands. They are paired or tripled for hands that are from the same all-in event. These are what they are pushing or calling a push with in level one. [ Ac, Ah ] [ Ks, Qh ] [ Ad, Ac ] [ Qs, Jc ] [ 9s, 9c ] [ 3s, 3c ] [ Kc, Ks ] [ 9s, 9c ] [ Ad, Qh ] [ 9s, 9c ] [ Jc, 8c ] [ 7d, 7c ] [ Ks, Ts ] [ Tc, Ad ] [ Th, Td ] [ Qs, Ad ] [ As, Qs ] [ 8c, 8h ] [ Qs, Qd ] [ Th, Ts ] [ Kc, Jh ] [ 7c, 7s ] [ Ks, Ac ] [ 9s, 9d ] [ 6h, 6d ] [ Ah, Ad ] [ Qd, Kh ] [ Kc, Ks ] [ As, Ah ] [ Jc, Jh ] [ Kh, Ac ] [ Ad, As ] [ Ks, 4d ] [ Qd, Qs ] [ Td, Ad ] [ Jh, Js ] [ Jh, Ks ] [ 7d, 7h ] [ Jc, As ] Looks like a coinflip more often than KK or AA. I would bet that first hand stats are even crazier than level one in general. First level deserves some special consideration, they are crazy then. -- tjh |
#4
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Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?
[ QUOTE ]
I think the BB pushed so this is not a limp-push. [/ QUOTE ] Yep, I was mistaken. Makes it easier as you say, now you'll see a much larger range of hands then when someone limps-pushes. |
#5
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Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?
It is an insta push. Double up or fire up a new one. If you lose it was an easy $4.
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#6
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Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?
Very big possibility that I'm bias. That's why i edited my post to ask for the same data you are asking for. Also, let me restate that I normally call here....
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#7
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Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?
Oh yeah, and many of my obsevations are also from MTT's. I think that makes a big difference and you will be shown AA-KK more often in MTT's.
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#8
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Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?
Just random observation here, but tonight in the 11s I saw two players all-in preflop. There hands were KQs and J5o respectively. J5o won the hand, of course, but donked off all their chips before level one was even over.
Les |
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