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#1
09-14-2005, 11:13 PM
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The Notorious Ed Miller \'Backdoor Two Pair\'
For those of us who have read SSHE there is one line that cracked me up 'They will call with flush draws, runner runners, one overcard, even backdoor two pair draws.'
I'm not sure if thats the correct writing but you get the idea. My question is how big must the pot be for you to call with 2 undercards? This is primarily an odds theory question and although you will most likely never get the chance to implement it. This post may make you think a little more about playing to odds and potsizes. Take this hand for example $5-10 at the Banana Inn (10 players) Hero is Button with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] All call, Hero calls, SB calls, BB raises, all call, Hero calls, SB 3bets, UTG+1 caps, all call Flop: (10players) 40SB 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] SB bets, all call, hero??? Do we call getting 49:1??? JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 
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#2
09-14-2005, 11:19 PM
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Re: The Notorious Ed Miller \'Backdoor Two Pair\'
your odds aren't 49:1, you have to consider your effective odds in this situation, not just your immediate odds, since if you hit one of your cards on the turn then you will have to pay a certain number of bets on the turn in order to see the river...your odds are probably closer to 15/20:1 because you have no idea what the flop action will be since you don't close the action and such...
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#3
09-14-2005, 11:28 PM
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Re: The Notorious Ed Miller \'Backdoor Two Pair\'
Raise preflop. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
When considering whether or not to continue, you have to take other things into account besides just the immediate pot odds: the possibility, albeit unlikely based on the action so far, that you're already drawing dead to a set or drawing very thin to queens up or Q7/Q8. Or that you catch your runner runner two pair while someone else catches their runner runner flush. I honestly can't think of a situation where it would be correct to peel with two undercards/no draw, except possibly HU vs. an aggressive opponent.
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#5
09-15-2005, 12:15 AM
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Re: The Notorious Ed Miller \'Backdoor Two Pair\'
We are closing the action so we are getting 49:1 to call.
If we don't pair the turn, we fold. If we hit the turn we call. Once we've hit the turn this is an esay call, getting such enormous odds. The turn call will be profitable. as we are about 9:1 to make a pair on the turn I think this is a call, if someone can pull out numbers to prove otherwise. ALso please note the non-aggressiveness of the players thus far, this adds further to the benefits of calling a bet...perhaps the turn will be checked through. Does anyone want to call now?? JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#7
09-15-2005, 12:28 AM
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Re: The Notorious Ed Miller \'Backdoor Two Pair\'
[ QUOTE ]
We are closing the action so we are getting 49:1 to call. If we don't pair the turn, we fold. If we hit the turn we call. Once we've hit the turn this is an esay call, getting such enormous odds. The turn call will be profitable. as we are about 9:1 to make a pair on the turn I think this is a call, if someone can pull out numbers to prove otherwise. ALso please note the non-aggressiveness of the players thus far, this adds further to the benefits of calling a bet...perhaps the turn will be checked through. Does anyone want to call now?? JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] You are incorrect. 49:1 on flop, first we'll assume two pair is good always to win river and that the turn will always be unraised to you with about 4 players in. First you will make a pair on the turn 13% of the time. You will make two pair or trips on the river 1.3% of the time. (6/47)(5/46). Do I need to go on you're a 76:1 dog to make your draw? Say you do, the pot will be about 29 BB. You will be getting 29:1 to go on and see the river. At which poitn you will have paid 1.5 BB for a 29 BB pot making you 29:1.5 pot odds, you were a 98:1 Dog on the flop.
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#8
09-15-2005, 12:37 AM
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Re: The Notorious Ed Miller \'Backdoor Two Pair\'
I'm not positive, but I don't think everyone around here is using the term "effective odds" correctly.
That post Jason made a week or two ago also kept using the term, and I don't think it is correct. We estimate our outs (like BD flush draws) based on the entire hand, which take effective odds into account. Who cares if we pick up a draw that we will have to call on the turn? All that means is that our turn decision is +EV. Our choice is RIGHT NOW. We have to figure out if the flop call is +EV. So we estimate our outs (keeping in mind what might happen on the turn and river) and then make a judgement based on pot and implied odds. The only time I see where effective odds really matter is when you are deciding on the turn whether or not you will also call a river bet even if you dont improve. If I'm mistaken, please enlighten me.
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#9
09-15-2005, 12:48 AM
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Re: The Notorious Ed Miller \'Backdoor Two Pair\'
Firstly, thankyou for your statistical input.
[ QUOTE ] (6/47)(5/46). Do I need to go on you're a 76:1 dog [/ QUOTE ] You are failing to take into account the remaining bets we will win if we make 2pair. Also if we make a pair on the turn, we will be more than happy to call the river. If you still don't want to call, some guy walking buy just threw two $100 bills into the pot, they don't call it the "Banana" for no reason! JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#10
09-15-2005, 12:53 AM
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Re: The Notorious Ed Miller \'Backdoor Two Pair\'
i think you are right about the terminology, i don't have my copy of TOP with me...
but i don't think in this case taht villain is getting 49:1 since if he hits on the turn then he will be putting in some number of bets on the turn that must be considered...is this possibilty negated by the times where he misses on the turn and can just fold?
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