AQs: big draw on the flop facing a weak flop bet.

[Entity]

Is this ok?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

Hero ($20.25)
MP2 ($8.85)
MP3 ($23.8)
CO ($31.25)
Button ($14)
SB ($18)
BB ($19.1)
UTG ($37.35)
UTG+1 ($20.15)
UTG+2 ($21)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls $2, Button folds, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $3.35</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls $1.85, CO calls $1.85, SB calls $1.85.

Flop: ($15.90) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>...

[AncientPC]

Why are you reraising that much? Basically you're going all-in.

Why not reraise to $7 - $10? If he smooth calls then you might want to see as many free cards as possible, if he pushes you can choose to fold or gamble on the flush draw.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you reraising that much? Basically you're going all-in.

Why not reraise to $7 - $10? If he smooth calls then you might want to see as many free cards as possible, if he pushes you can choose to fold or gamble on the flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
Flush draw + gutshot + potential overcard (very tainted), seems like around 13 outs. I'm raising that much because I'm committed to this pot with that many outs (I think), and because I'd rather win it uncontested. A 1/10 pot sized bet is very weak, and smells like something like a weak to mid pocket pair or JJ/QQ that doesn't know how to play their hand. If I get called, I'm only a dog to a set, but I'd rather win this uncontested.

Does that make sense? Keep in mind, I am a limit player, and I know that this move would be better with deeper stacks, but I can't see a scenario where I'm not going to get my money into this pot -- so wouldn't it be best to make a nearly pot-sized bet and try to win it now?

Rob

[PokerSlut]

[ QUOTE ]
If I get called, I'm only a dog to a set, but I'd rather win this uncontested.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've got news for you: you're also a dog to a pair.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>pokenum -h ac qc - ad kd -- ks tc 7c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks Tc 7c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 447 45.15 534 53.94 9 0.91 0.456
Ad Kd 534 53.94 447 45.15 9 0.91 0.544</pre><hr />

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I get called, I'm only a dog to a set, but I'd rather win this uncontested.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've got news for you: you're also a dog to a pair.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>pokenum -h ac qc - ad kd -- ks tc 7c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks Tc 7c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 447 45.15 534 53.94 9 0.91 0.456
Ad Kd 534 53.94 447 45.15 9 0.91 0.544</pre><hr />


[/ QUOTE ]
To that specific pair, yes. But not to all pairs. I suppose AK is a reasonable hand to expect, though, but why would AK bet 10% of the pot with TPTK here?

I'm a slight dog to AK, but with the dead money in the pot and only $15 remaining in my stack, is there any way where I'm not going all-in? I'm 50/50 against AK/QQ/JJ.

So how about semantics -- I'm only a huge dog to a set.

I'm trying to understand why I'd want to see the turn here, if I can avoid it. Is the 10% pot bet something I should be more aware of at this level, or does it usually suggest weakness, like it seemed to here?

Rob

[Entity]

Ok -- so I was wrong on how good my hand is here against the range of hands that have paired. That said, I'm rarely a big dog or that much worse than 50/50.

The question I have here is how I should play this with ~16BB left in my stack and 17.4BB in the pot. It's easy for me to realize that I want to continue with the hand, but I'm not sure what the best way to win the most money here is -- and I'm assuming that is my goal. Obviously if I pull this move and he flips over KK, I'm not terribly happy. However, it seems to me that his bet is asking for me to steal the pot -- so I did. I'm guessing there is something in my thought process that I'm missing here that is key to proper NL play, and I'd like to get it. Would anyone be willing to spell it out to me?

Rob

[PokerSlut]

I don't think it was a bad play, actually. With the pot equity and the likely range of hands for your opponent (although this really depends on your read, but I'm assuming he's "average" for a small-stakes NL game) the additional equity you gain by them folding a better hand to your semi-bluff more than makes it worthwhile in my opinion.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
Would anyone be willing to spell it out to me?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll spell it out. Y-O-U err, played this hand exactly the way it should be played. You don't want to face a decision on the turn. You are ahead of many hands, including many pairs. he could have an open ender, so make him pay. He might even pay you off with a smaller flush draw (isn't that the best). If he has 9c8c, you are a 2:1 favorite, and he is going to call! Or he might be such a fish, that he'll call with AQ, putting you on a total freeroll! And if you are behind to a pair, and your ace is good (aka vs KQ or KJ or KcXc), it's a coin flip. And winning $17.40 100% of the time is better than winning $31.65 (if he calls) 50% of the time. You can also knock out two pair, which you are a dog (but not big) against! Maybe even bottom set (I've done it before). With that much dead money in the pot, there is no way he has a set enough of the time to make it not worth CALLING if he were to push. Overall, with the stack that short, to push all in is BY FAR the most profitable play.

[rwperu34]

Another thing, his weak flop bet SCREAMS of two hands. KK or QQ. And I'd say QQ is much more likely, because with that many draws out there (you're getting odds to call an INSIDE str8 with no flush and more with implied odds, because if probably won't lay a set down, even if the str8 gets there), he'd bet bigger w KK. The bottom line is, I doubt he'll have a set enough of the time to overcome the $ you gain by making him fold better or even hands (aka, any pair).

And my math was off in that first post. If you put in $15.25 and he folds, you pull back $32.65 for a profit of $17.40. If you put in $15.25 and he calls with a range of hands that=50/50, you put in $15.25 and pull back $23.60 for a profit of $8.35. YOU WANT THIS GUY TO FOLD!

[Daann]

I don't really see the point of raising here. He's offering you such good odds to draw out on him. Stack sizes are short enough that he might think screw it and call you anyway with QQ, especially considering this is PP NL $25. Probably most importantly, there are two other people in the hand that you haven't seen in action yet. All in all, I think that calling is far superior to raising.