Pocket 10's, Party $50

[pfkaok]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed)

Hero ($50)
MP2 ($41.25)
MP3 ($22.25)
CO ($50.50)
Button ($52.30)
SB ($65.25)
BB ($50)
UTG ($45.50)
UTG+1 ($32.50)
UTG+2 ($49)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls $1, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, CO folds, Button calls $1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($7) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets $2</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $4.

Turn: ($19) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises to $38.5 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $67.50

Results in white below: <font color="white">
No showdown. UTG wins $67.50. </font>

Do I want to raise on this type of flop, or just call then raise if turn is good? I was hopin to get heads up with the bettor, which I did, then turn comes good, so is this a good bet? Maybe should have been a little more, but I figured he'd probably call it whether he was heart draw, str8 draw, or just A8. Is this turn CR likely to be a semibluff? To me it seems like the way a lot of people play their set... small bet, or check/call flop, then big CR on turn. Am I being weak/tight here thouhg?

[fimbulwinter]

This is not a fold I'd never make.

Flop: He bet small and then called your raise. this is very often a drawing hand trying to buy the post cheap if everyone missed. if he had a set, he'd have minraised unless he knew you to be a weak/tight player or one who liked to raise/steal. people will play a set like callflop/checkraise turn, but hardly ever will they call when raised into when holding the 2nd or 3rd nuts, ESPECIALLY when they are vulnerable to the flush draw as well.

Turn: the two completed no straights or flushes. you were getting excellent odds on your call, i'd even say you were ahead &gt;50% of the time here. he got lucky his flush draw didn't get called.

fim

[DBowling]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not a fold I'd never make.


[/ QUOTE ]

?????
So fold is bad?

[okayplayer]

I would've raised more on the flop, about $10 or so. He's probably on a draw (maybe open ended or flush draw, quite possibly pair and flush). I also would've bet more on the turn ($20). Then if he raises you All-in, you are more committed than how you bet it, so I'd definitely call, but how you bet, you're not really committed. I think I'd call here though and hope no heart hits...

[Justin A]

That betting pattern does not look like a draw to me at all.

Justin A

[pfkaok]

Yeah, I know that the guy SHOULD reraise with a set on a 2suited board, but it seems in general that Party $50 people play sets like the they're absolute monsters to be slowplayed, regardless of the texture of the flop. ALso, I find that the draws are usually played stronger on flop, and weaker on turn but I might be wrong. I just feel like with 10's or J's I rarely like my chances of facing an allin on ragged boards. This could certainly be a hole in my game though. A lot of times I even see slowplayed AA or KK

[fimbulwinter]

Justin is obviously a more experienced player than I am, however, i must disagree with him here.

yes, people will slowplay sets, but very rarely (in my experience) in this particular fashion. most often i see a person in position calling a flop bet and then raising the turn or (out of pos) betting small on the flop and then pot on the turn. here you have someone who bet/called when you raised. I have never seen someone with a monster flat call a raise (which could obviously be a resteal attempt with a flush draw, a play i make habitually) especially with a very viable draw out there. smooth call the flop with a monster? yes, but not bet/call a raise, especially with the opportunity to get you pot-committed with a small raise.

In my experience he was thinking this:

well, i missed my draw on the turn, and there's no way i'm giving up a flush draw. If I bet big here he might fold, and all my money will probably go in anyways, so lets gambool!

fim

PS- he raised him 2/3 the size of the pot. he has to be good about 40% of the time to make this call here, which i feel he is, hence the "I never make this fold" comment.

[pfkaok]

"PS- he raised him 2/3 the size of the pot. he has to be good about 40% of the time to make this call here, which i feel he is, hence the "I never make this fold" comment."

This is kind of what I was thinking here... about a pot-sized bet so I'm only gettin 2-1 on my call. However, I think that you need to be fairly confident, at least over 50% sure that he's on a draw here to make the call +EV. My share in the pots when I'm behind is close to zero (4-5%), and on the other hand when I'm ahead he almost certainly has 9 outs for the flush (~20%), but very likely has at least one over, and perhaps a small pair or gutshot or some extra outs along with it. So if I'm ahead there's a good chance he's got 1/4 to 1/3 pot equity anyway. I just wasn't THAT confident that he was on a draw here.

[GimmeDaWatch]

I agree with Justin in that this does not look like a draw to me. Not sure whats up with the "its all going in anyway comment"? Villain could call the turn and have $28 left, so its a little reckless to me to make this play with a draw b/c given the action there's a very good chance Hero is not folding (Im sure there are some players on Party who would do this, but certainly not most). It just so happened that Hero had a decent/not great hand as opposed to 2 pair/set/bigger overpair etc. I know this board is draw heavy, but I would occasionally play a set the way villain did, especially against aggressive players who I know will bet a decent amount on the turn. The reason being that a flop re-raise will scare away alot of hands (A8, medium-overpairs, total bluffs, and even flush and str8 draws if you raise the pot) and you might force him to pot-commit himself on the turn if a blank falls. Hero only bet half the pot, so it was much easier to get away from, but had he bet $20 he would have more or less been compelled to call. It is a little risky but I dont think its completely without merit.

[fimbulwinter]

your analysis of pot odds in this hand is incorrect, as was my previous statement.

What's important is when the decision to fold was made:
you would have to call 18.5 to win a pot that would be a final size of 86 dollars, your pot odds are therefore much, much better than 2:1, closer to 3.5:1 or 4:1. yes, he may have live outs, but i'd seriously doubt he has more than 20% pot equity here in general. you have no PFR, so thinking "slowplayed AA/KK" is just playing weak poker here, IMHO.

again, i will say that while people will slowplay sets, this pattern is silly with a set; you've given him the indication that you have a strong hand and are willing to play a big pot and he just calls with what is very likely the best hand? people slowplay because they want others to catch something that will pay them off, not just because they have a certain hand. people on party/prima/etc. may be lunatics, but they're not dead. if you're holding top set and someone puts a large portion of their stack in the pot, you don't call, you get the money in there and are happy about it.

I'm honestly shocked that everyone is so convinced this guy has a set here; this has been the stereotypical fishy way to play a failed draw/buy attempt in my experience. I honestly thought you were going to get a deluge of one word responses that said "call" and nothing else.
maybe party's different...

fim