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#12
09-23-2004, 08:42 PM
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Re: Implied odds at work
Yuck, why? So you can get raised by the guy actually holding the 9 who thinks that you are making a move with AK? Raising preflop means that you are going to make it harder to get away from the hand when a bad flop (like this one) hits.
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#13
09-23-2004, 08:58 PM
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Re: Implied odds at work
There are a few reasons that I don't like this play with this specific flop. First of all, there are several hands that people may limp in that include a 9. 79, 89, T9, J9, Q9, K9, A9, are all hands that are commonly played. I don't like most of them (especially K9 and A9) for a number of reasons, but many people play them regularly. Because of the fact that you can't really be sure what you are up against, do you really want to draw to a hand that could very likely be no good if you hit it? If the flop was 929, I'd say go for it. However, if an ace or a king hit on the river, would you call a big bet? What about if a deuce hit? If so, I'm really not crazy about chasing a set. You are going to have such a difficult time determining if your hand is good when facing a raise or a reraise on the river that I'd really advise against chasing the set. Most people will re-raise you if you raise on the river if they are holding a 9 for the simple reason that if you raise and they have a decent kicker, they are probably thinking that you are making a move on them. That would be your best case. What if they reraise you with a better full house, though? You just lost your stack in a pot where you should not have been involved past the flop... It's one thing if you have TT, but with an underpair, chasing is a very dangerous business...
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#14
09-23-2004, 09:05 PM
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Re: Implied odds at work
Sorry, I don't agree with this at all.
You should not raise preflop, the low PPs should be right on the bottom of your list of things to raise. You want to flop a set as cheaply as possible and the more people in, the better. Its not as if you are getting anyone to fold preflop on a Party NL$25 table. As for betting the flop, well, there are 6 other people there. Why bother trying to steal when you are more than likely to get called by any 9, any K and probably stuff like gutshots.
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#16
09-23-2004, 11:39 PM
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Re: Implied odds at work
Ok, the consensus so far seems to be that hero didn't quite have the odds to make the call on the flop. However, it is just a dollar, so if it's a mistake it is a very small mistake.
I think the turn play is more important. [ QUOTE ] (At this point I'm sure that somebody has the 9, and I call just on the slight chance that I'll catch my 4 and nail somebody) [/ QUOTE ] How can you make this statement? You have a $1 bet and one caller, and you're sure someone has the nine? I think you have to raise the turn. The pot was just too dang small on the river for you to make much money out of it. You called on the flop because you thought someone had a nine, so now you make them pay to show down that nine. Anyone else agree? Justin A
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#17
09-24-2004, 03:48 AM
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Re: Implied odds at work
Calling with an underpair on a paired flop is not a good play, especially if you put your opponent on trips...but if you do call and hit your full house, make him pay to see the river. If he hits his kicker on the river you will likely go broke, so put in the money on the turn when you think you're ahead.
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#18
09-24-2004, 10:35 AM
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Re: Implied odds at work
[ QUOTE ]
His odds are not 11:1 of making a set on the turn. That would be equivelent to a 4 outer. His odds are 23.5:1, he has 2 outs and 47 unseen cards. So he is not even close to getting the odds, when you consider pot odds, implied odds, and reverse implied odds. [/ QUOTE ] Good thing the math patrol got right on this. What I should have said was that his odds were 11:1 against of hitting by the river. But in terms of reverse implied odds, he's about 22:1 of hitting it on the next card off, and he's going to have to pay to see the river. Either way, I would not go past the flop.
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#19
09-24-2004, 10:43 AM
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Re: Implied odds at work
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, the consensus so far seems to be that hero didn't quite have the odds to make the call on the flop. However, it is just a dollar, so if it's a mistake it is a very small mistake. I think the turn play is more important. [ QUOTE ] (At this point I'm sure that somebody has the 9, and I call just on the slight chance that I'll catch my 4 and nail somebody) [/ QUOTE ] How can you make this statement? You have a $1 bet and one caller, and you're sure someone has the nine? I think you have to raise the turn. The pot was just too dang small on the river for you to make much money out of it. You called on the flop because you thought someone had a nine, so now you make them pay to show down that nine. Anyone else agree? Justin A [/ QUOTE ] yeah, i agree with you. i was too distracted by my disapproval of the flop to get into it though.
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