Implied odds at work

[luqui]

A rather nice pot... does anyone disagree with my play up to the river?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

MP1 ($24)
MP2 ($24.50)
Hero ($61.85)
CO ($35.70)
Button ($41.30)
SB ($17.45)
BB ($19.75)
UTG <font color="purple">(Villain)</font> ($36.25)
UTG+1 ($23.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG <font color="purple">(Villain)</font> calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Villain checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets $1</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Villain calls $1, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $1.

(At this point I'm sure that somebody has the 9, and I call just on the slight chance that I'll catch my 4 and nail somebody)

Turn: ($6.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Villain bets $2</font>, Hero calls $2, CO calls $2.

(Here I cry out to myself "Yes!". Great poker face :-p)

River: ($12.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Villain bets $4</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, CO folds, Villain calls $11.

Final Pot: $42.50

[jon_1van]

The only place I can see a possibility of a disagreement is whether or not you should have raised the turn. There are only a few cards that screw your full house(9 and K).

Smooth calling allows you to build a bigger pot which to fight over on the river so I like the play. I think it would be pretty easy to fold to a K or a 9 river.

[Xargque]

Looks to me like you managed to get 24.5 to 1 on your flop bet and the chance of catching the 4 on the turn was 23 to 1 (assuming you know one 9 to be in someone's hand). So your flop call came out to be just marginally profitable. Taken with the chance that your hand wasn't going to be good on the end against 2 opponentns even if you hit your set (e.g. if the CO had AK and rivered a King for a bigger boat - almost exactly as likely as you getting your 4 on the turn) makes me suspicious of the long term profitability of this play. If you were planning to call on the turn unless another 9 or K hit, hoping to river the set, I would say the play was definitely unprofitable.

Glad it worked, though.

-X

[schwza]

so this worked out pretty much perfectly for you here...

you put in $1 on the flop, with a ~1/24 chance of making spiking a 4 on the turn. the pot's 6.50 at that point, and another 19 of other people's money (OPM) goes in by the end, for a total of $25.50. so that's very slightly positive for you - put in 1, 1/24 to hit, and you win 25.5. the real question is: in those cases that you do spike the 4 on the turn, what's your EV of the pot + OPM on future rounds?

i would guess it's substantially lower than $24. there are times you'll hit and lose (e.g., imagine if a K fell on the river. or worse, if somebody was sitting there with K9/KK/99 the whole time). and there are times you'll hit and no one will pay you another dime.

admittedly, you also have a little equity b/c it's possible you'll miss your 4, the turn is checked around, and you hit it on the river. and it's also possible the turn and river will be checked around and you'll win unimproved. but the equity from these two is very low, IMO.

easy fold on the flop.

[Daann]

I'd do it if my PP was higher than the board pair. Too much chance of making a second best hand otherwise.

[Ionphore]

What if the 4 doesent come on the turn - are you folding? If you hit the 4 are you always getting paid off? You also need to realize the reverse implied odds. Because once in a great while you will hit your 4. And you will get paid off with it. But sometimes you will hit your 4 and someone else will fill up and you will loose your stack...
Also I wouldn't get in the habit of this unless you are closing the betting. On the flop you are closing the betting so you know you will see the turn for a dollar. But if you hit this a couple of times you might start calling for a dollar with other players to act. And someone may likely raise or check raise and your dollar is gone. Or you may call because the pot is bigger even though you aren't getting nice odds anymore. Anyways - its not a horrible play or anything. I question its profitability in the long run.

[LBJ]

With all pairs under 6s, I always prefer to hit a set or fold on the flop. Calling is too risky. What if someone had K 9, 99, or KK, or any K or 9 and could fill in?

You would be looking at high reverse implied odds if you hit your set and went on to lose your stack on what you thought was the best full house.

Also a $1 bet with that pot on that flop doesn't mean a 9, I wouldn't think. Your 4s should be played as a limping hand and your implied odds should be used to value your hand preflop, when determining whether to call raises.

-LBJ

[aces_full]

I'm done with it on the flop every time. Your odds against hitting your set on the turn are about 11:1, so you are often not in good shape odds-wise. Plus depending on the texture of the flop, you could make your set and it will be no good. If the flop has two to a suit (and you don't hold that suit in your pair) then you only have one out. Then there's the possiblility that your set card could make someone a straight. The only time I take one off is if the board is paired and my pocket pair is higher than the board pair. For instance if you held 99 and the board was 4K4 instead than I would say it was a good play. Otherwise I say you were just lucky someone didn't show you K9, because after all, you can make a straight with K9, and if it's sooooted all the better.

[LBJ]

His odds are not 11:1 of making a set on the turn. That would be equivelent to a 4 outer. His odds are 23.5:1, he has 2 outs and 47 unseen cards. So he is not even close to getting the odds, when you consider pot odds, implied odds, and reverse implied odds.

[Benal]

Raise preflop, bet the flop