Playing AKs for a stack???????

[Daann]

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You realize bunky's last bet was 80 dollars into a 85 dollar pot and that means his opponent would have to call all in? Are you telling me he's less likely to bet a weak Ace than call an all in with an underpair? If you tell me you would call with KK/JJ more often than you would bet Ax you have to be nuts.

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This isn't about me, this is about how people generally play these sort of things when they put their opponent on a flush draw, which is the most likely thing that bunky's opponent puts him on.

A lot of people do check behind on the river with Ax type hands, especially in a raised pot, because they want to get to showdown with something that isn't that strong and which would hate to be raised on the river. This is even more true when your opponent puts you on a flush draw, as I said before, they won't see any point to betting if you are going to fold anyway.

On the flip side, if your opponent puts you on a busted draw, then they will call, especially if they have something like Ax or a high underpair. A big bet looks like a lot like a bluff to people, and so is likely to get called. Maybe not as likely as the small bet, but the times that they do get called more than make up for it in profitability.

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Bunky looks like he's drawing but he could easily have a have a pair like Qhxh and that would make me want to bet a hand like JJ or TT or KK even more on the river.

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Which one then? You either bet JJ/TT to get Qxs to fold or KK for value. You can't have it both ways.

[Yeknom58]

"Which one then? You either bet JJ/TT to get Qxs to fold or KK for value. You can't have it both ways. "

Thats my point, if I had JJ/TT I would bet hoping any Q will fold and if I had KK I would still bet hoping any Q or small pair will call. Yes I can have it both ways. If I had a weak hand I want everyone to fold if I have a stronger hand I want everyone to call why is this so hard to understand. Granted my opponent will only do one thing but that doesn't mean I can't want different things varying on the strenght of my hand.

In my experience ON THE RIVER every time I've made large bets and have been called I have never seen an underpair. IIn my last 10K hands that is my experience. If this were llimit that would be one thing but this is NL. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, I'm just saying the likely hood of an Ace betting is greater than an underpair calling an allin and I don't think it's even close.

[Daann]

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Granted my opponent will only do one thing but that doesn't mean I can't want different things varying on the strenght of my hand.

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Your opponent will only do one thing, and its best to work out what that one thing is, rather than betting and hoping for the best outcome for your hand, that what I was getting at.

Here I would be more willing to bet KK for value than JJ/TT to get him to fold, since the Q was on the flop rather than made on the way.

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In my experience ON THE RIVER every time I've made large bets and have been called I have never seen an underpair. IIn my last 10K hands that is my experience. If this were limit that would be one thing but this is NL. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, I'm just saying the likely hood of an Ace betting is greater than an underpair calling an allin and I don't think it's even close.

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But I'm not saying that the likelihood of an Ace betting is greater than an underpair calling an allin, I absolutely agree with this. I'm saying that it is more likely that either of them will call than either of them betting, which is slightly different and why I really like bunky's line. I lumped them both together because I don't think that an underpair is a far less likely holding here than Ax because he bet both the flop and the turn.

Btw I have a fair few examples of underpairs calling all in bets. One recent hand that comes to mind happened a couple of days ago, where I reraised someone who had KK with AA and he flat called, and an A flopped. I checked it through to the river then bet all in and he had to call off his stack (~1.5x pot). He must have put me on QQ and so he called.

[ChipLeader]

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Thats my point, if I had JJ/TT I would bet hoping any Q will fold and if I had KK I would still bet hoping any Q or small pair will call. Yes I can have it both ways. If I had a weak hand I want everyone to fold if I have a stronger hand I want everyone to call why is this so hard to understand.

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Dude, wtf are you talking about? How can you make the same play consistently and hope for different outcomes each time? This is so "hard to understand" because it doesnt make any sense, you cannot make the same play with 2 different strength hands and expect 2 different outcomes. If youre betting a hand for value, you bet what will be called right? So how can you bet this same amount with a hand you DONT WANT CALLED?! I dont see your logic whatsoever.
Bunky, great play. This whole hand relies on your read of the player and his read on you, and you said youve seen him get out of line. As a result, you made a play that you thought would get all his chips in while you hold the better hand... and you did. Good read, good play!

[Daann]

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I lumped them both together because I don't think that an underpair is a far less likely holding here than Ax because he bet both the flop and the turn.

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That should read: I think that an underpair....

[M127]

"How can you make the same play consistently and hope for different outcomes each time?"

It seems weird, but it can happen because the 80 in the pot makes it profitable for him to bluff with one hand, if you look at it from an expected value point of view. For example:

If Villain thinks Bunky has Queens, and thinks that Bunky has a 75% chance of calling a river bet of 20, with say 80 already in the pot, then he could make such a bet rather than check whether he has KK or JJ. With KK, his EV increases from 80 to 95 (.25 x 80 + .75 x 100)... with JJ, it increases from 0 to 5 (.25 x 80 - .75 x 20)