Live hand: Bottom pair, ugly river

TStoneMBD · #1 12-29-2005, 02:37 PM

i dont really like the turn checkraise against this guy. you said he thinks youre making moves on him so hes not folding a better hand for sure. all that will happen is that you checkraise the turn and checkcall the river as you did losing 3 bets instead of just 2. i dont see what checkraising the turn accomplishes other than getting him to fold a 6 outter (although notice you do have an ace kicker so it will often times be a 3 outter). the times he does have a 6 outter its with a hand like king or queen high so hell usually follow through on the river on a bluff anyway, so why chase the 6 outter out when you can extract another BB from him?

mmcd · #2 12-30-2005, 03:34 AM

My turn checkraise was purely for value. I figure to have the best hand on this board, and I know this guy's firing a second barrel on the turn no matter what he has. Also, all of his likely 6-out hands became 10-out hands on the turn. If the river completely blanks, I can't count on him to fire a 3rd barrel, because it looks like I'm probably calling him down with a marginal made hand like 33 or A-high after I check/call the turn.

And to those that don't think he will consider bluffing A-high on the river, look at all the hands that got there on the J. Any 8, KQ, KJ, QJ, AJ. It's certainly not unreasonable for him to think he can get me off a baby pair, a 5, or a 7. And although it would be pretty sweet to value bet and get called by a worse hand, the possibility of a bluff raise really concerns me here, and I really don't want to put in 2 bets on the river on that board with bottom pair. (he knows I'm capable of value-betting him thin, and I had already snapped off 1 river bluff raise from him earlier with an unimproved AK)

StellarWind · #3 12-30-2005, 04:25 AM

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My turn checkraise was purely for value.

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I asked a friend [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] what he likes to have for a 5-handed opening and fed it into PokerStove. Against my friend you are a 55-45 underdog on the turn.

So I'm not really sure what value this checkraise offers. What hand range are you putting this guy on?

mmcd · #4 12-30-2005, 05:17 AM

Any 2 10-A, 44+, any suited ace, A4o+, with maybe some suited connectors thrown in (but not with 100% frequency).

StellarWind · #5 12-30-2005, 05:45 AM

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Any 2 10-A, 44+, any suited ace, A4o+, with maybe some suited connectors thrown in (but not with 100% frequency).

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PokerStove says Villain has 50.7% pot equity on the turn with this hand range. All the middle suited connectors are beating you. In order to represent "not with 100% frequency" I included 87s and left the rest out.

It really seems to me that your hand is not as good as you think it is. Part of the problem is that he averages many more outs when he is behind than you have when you are behind. Your chance of winning is lower than your chance of having the best hand.