preflop equity

[SeaEagle]

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I think folding 44 here is really bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, it's stunning that 3 times as many people fold 44 as 99 (and 3 times as many fold 76s as JTs).

In both cases, either you're going to make a big hand or you're not. And there's not a significant difference between how often a set of 9 holds up vs a set of 4s, or a 7-high flush vs a J-high flush.

[crunchy1]

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99 and JTs are significantly more playable in this situation than 44 (risk of overset too great) and 67s (increased risk of losing to another flush or 4-flush on the river; more likely to make dummy end of the straight than JTs).

[/ QUOTE ]
This is wrong. None of these hands are going to be any more "playable" than the other. The pot has been 3-bet in EP PF. Losing to an overset with 44 is not that much more likely than losing to an overset w/99. 67s has just as much chance of losing to a 4-flush on the river as does JTs.

The major point - that I've yet to see mentioned - is that all 4 of these hands play well in multiway pots. We (per the poll question) find ourselves in a multi-way pot situation and have a chance to cap which:

- inflates that pot size for the times when we'll win; netting us a bigger pot
- gives us some initiative in the hand
- helps to tie people to the pot even further

We don't even need to play that well post-flop to make these situations profitable for us. Posters advocating folding are clearly incorrect. Given the effects that a cap will have on the post-flop play - I think it's pretty easy to cap all of these hands.

[W. Deranged]

I voted cap in every circumstance as well.

I think it's a simply logical thing: If I'm playing here, it's because I think I generally have an equity edge against the 8+ way field. If I have an equity edge, I probably should cap it because everyone is going to call the extra bets and I like money and capping might have some tactical advantages like letting me see the turn for free if my opponents check to me.

[krimson]

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I'm assuming that the callers are not playing trash.

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Seriously? Usually when I see a whole table cold-calling 3-bets i'd assume it's a table of fish and they're playing, precisely, 2 cards.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I voted to cap all 4 and think the discussion so far has been great. A few extra thoughts, goto pokerstove and put in those hands and some intelligent ranges for opponent hands....you have an ev edge as said earlier.

Furthermore, the inititative is a BIG BIG deal. Even with the preflop action....there is still a chance of the flop being checked around to you, the capper. This happens more often than you think as early position AA and KK wait for check-raises.

This allows a potential free turn to pick up a set or a straight and flush draw. The flop of K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] looks f'ugly for 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but the free turn of 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] makes it look pretty decent all of a sudden. while sets get there a little less than 1 in 8 flops, they will get about 1 in 6 by the turn.

[BigBiceps]

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I voted cap in every circumstance as well.

I think it's a simply logical thing: If I'm playing here, it's because I think I generally have an equity edge against the 8+ way field. If I have an equity edge, I probably should cap it because everyone is going to call the extra bets and I like money and capping might have some tactical advantages like letting me see the turn for free if my opponents check to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think you are going to see the turn for free 9 handed??

I did a sample situation vs. a set of some possible hands:
Ac Qs
Jc Jd
Kh Qd
2h 2s
5s 6c
7c 8c
ts 7s
As 3s

Then compared to the 4 above hands ... (You need 11.1% equity to make your play worthwhile ....

Jh Th 35736 12.84 237362 85.30 5158 1.85 <font color="red"> 0.137</font>
Qs Ac 20206 7.26 253909 91.25 4141 1.49 0.080
Jc Jd 32171 11.56 243110 87.37 2975 1.07 0.121
Qd Kh 35796 12.86 241058 86.63 1402 0.50 0.131
2s 2h 41007 14.74 237067 85.20 182 0.07 0.147
5s 6c 30117 10.82 247957 89.11 182 0.07 0.108
8c 7c 37689 13.54 237100 85.21 3467 1.25 0.141
Ts 7s 12526 4.50 260080 93.47 5650 2.03 0.055
As 3s 20606 7.41 254729 91.54 2921 1.05 0.079

7d 6d 39437 14.17 233480 83.91 5339 1.92 <font color="red"> 0.150</font>
Qs Ac 21652 7.78 251980 90.56 4624 1.66 0.086
Jc Jd 52189 18.76 225939 81.20 128 0.05 0.188
Qd Kh 35146 12.63 241426 86.76 1684 0.61 0.129
2s 2h 35271 12.68 242857 87.28 128 0.05 0.127
5s 6c 16463 5.92 258734 92.98 3059 1.10 0.064
8c 7c 31288 11.24 244560 87.89 2408 0.87 0.115
Ts 7s 18854 6.78 256994 92.36 2408 0.87 0.071
As 3s 18121 6.51 257067 92.39 3068 1.10 0.070

9s 9c 40415 14.52 237764 85.45 77 0.03 <font color="red"> 0.145</font>
Qs Ac 17327 6.23 257289 92.46 3640 1.31 0.069
Jc Jd 53094 19.08 225085 80.89 77 0.03 0.191
Qd Kh 35586 12.79 241193 86.68 1477 0.53 0.130
2s 2h 31567 11.34 246612 88.63 77 0.03 0.113
5s 6c 31395 11.28 246784 88.69 77 0.03 0.113
8c 7c 28505 10.24 246561 88.61 3190 1.15 0.108
Ts 7s 17792 6.39 257274 92.46 3190 1.15 0.070
As 3s 15822 5.69 260194 93.51 2240 0.81 0.061

4s 4c 37947 13.64 240142 86.30 167 0.06 <font color="red"> 0.136</font>
Qs Ac 15505 5.57 258989 93.08 3762 1.35 0.062
Jc Jd 53522 19.23 224567 80.71 167 0.06 0.192
Qd Kh 35320 12.69 241353 86.74 1583 0.57 0.130
2s 2h 33208 11.93 244881 88.01 167 0.06 0.119
5s 6c 25612 9.20 252477 90.74 167 0.06 0.092
8c 7c 31124 11.19 243785 87.61 3347 1.20 0.118
Ts 7s 24347 8.75 250562 90.05 3347 1.20 0.093
As 3s 14729 5.29 261181 93.86 2346 0.84 0.057

I just made up some hands, and this is not scientific, but versus my made up hands it looks like all the hands have sufficient equity to continue. However we are talking MINOR EDGES and to overcome the variance of such playing will take 100,000's of hands due to the large pots and infrequency of this time of event. However, I agree that I was wrong in saying that these were not +EV moves. I still will fold 44 and 67s though. It can still be difficult to play those postflop even if you have the equity (ie. you are not calling to the river with 44 hoping to spike your set, therefore you lose some equity if you don't flop it)

[BigBiceps]

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Furthermore, the inititative is a BIG BIG deal. Even with the preflop action....there is still a chance of the flop being checked around to you, the capper.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I see the pot get capped by someone who did not already put in a bet or raise, I don't draw the conclusion that they have a good hand. I draw the conclusion that they figure it is going to get capped anyway, they want to play, and they mine as well be the capper.

I would not check any flop 9 handed from an early position if I had any pair or any draw. I seriously doubt you will hardly ever get 8 people checking to you.

This is a completely absurd situation IMO because in the games I play in there are rarely more than 6 players to a flop in an unraised pot, and more than 4 in a raised pot.

[crunchy1]

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I still will fold 44 and 67s though. It can still be difficult to play those postflop even if you have the equity (ie. you are not calling to the river with 44 hoping to spike your set, therefore you lose some equity if you don't flop it)

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You make a good point here. If you don't feel comfortable - or aren't very good after the flop - then playing these hands is probably -EV for you. However - even mediocre players can make these hands profitable. I think you're overestimating the difficulty in playing these hands after the flop.

[SeaEagle]

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However we are talking MINOR EDGES and to overcome the variance of such playing will take 100,000's of hands due to the large pots and infrequency of this time of event.

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Huh? A 2-4% edge against 9 people is pretty substantial. You would not need very many hands to expect to show a solid profit, even with variance. I was going to do the math, but I'm off to a meeting in 6 minutes.

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I still will fold 44 and 67s though. It can still be difficult to play those postflop even if you have the equity

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I guess this is the part of the "fold" argument that boggles me.
1) How is playing a middle/small pair hard in a many way pot? Flop a set, jam. Don't flop a set, fold to any bets where the pot isn't giving you 21-1.
2) How is playing 99 any eaiser than 44? 99 will flop overcards almost 3/4 of the time. With 8 opponents you can safely assume that someone has all the overs. I would disagree with someone who said they would fold both 44 and 99, but at least I'd see some consistency in their approach.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Yes, it wouldn't happen with you, because you are a good player. However, what would your typical opponents do?

I've played some live games from 8/16 to 20/40 even where there were hands that resembled this action (usually only 7 way though). The situation for a hand like this almost always means that opponents are playing quite poorly. they will check the flop with an overpair a decent percentage of the time. They will give you credit for a huge hand, especially if you've been a TAG most the night. They will pay you off big when you hit. You and I wouldn't, but they will often enough to make it profitable.