"Yuck" (aka a badly played straight flush?)

[RayGarlington]

One of the things I've been trying to understand is how the recommended playing strategies can be derived using the sims. I think using them provides some structure which can yield the correct mathematical approach to for playing not just a particular hand, but similar ones.

[ QUOTE ]
I think that even for this pretty SF draw too many cards are dead, so I would play it as cheaply as possible, and would probably pass it in a tight game like Party 5/10+

[/ QUOTE ]

I think in this case the sims hint that you are wrong. We are all here to learn, and it is nice to have some sort of formal approach to these problems.

[greenage]

Roland, I hope you got some rest.

What I'm trying to wrap my math challenged head around is this:

Hero has the pot odds to call a bet on sixth. Pot would be offering 6.25:1, while Hero is a 3:2 underdog. Hero should not want to bet himself now that his EV (0.404) is less than 50% in this HU hand. Each bet that he now makes costs him money, e.g.

Pot = 5.25 BB and Hero wins the hand 2 times out of 5.

Looking at Sixth street in a vacuum.

Sixth street (no bets):

3 losses * 0 BB (additional investment) = 0 BB.
2 wins * 5.25BB pot = 10.5 BB. (10.5 BB - 0 BB = 10.5 BB)


Sixth street (one bet):

3 losses * 1 BB = 3 BB.
2 wins * 6.25 BB = 12.5 BB. (12.5 BB - 3 BB = 9.5 BB)


Sixth street (2 bets):

3 losses * 2 BB = 6 BB
2 wins * 7.25 BB = 14.5 BB (14.5 BB - 6 BB = 8.5 BB)

So while you still make money, you make less for each additional bet. SDM, does this make any more sense? I'm not a math person either.

Ray, I think this is what you were saying but just a different way of showing it.

[greenage]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the things I've been trying to understand is how the recommended playing strategies can be derived using the sims. I think using them provides some structure which can yield the correct mathematical approach to for playing not just a particular hand, but similar ones.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[sexdrugsmoney]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
Roland, I hope you got some rest.

What I'm trying to wrap my math challenged head around is this:

Hero has the pot odds to call a bet on sixth. Pot would be offering 6.25:1, while Hero is a 3:2 underdog. Hero should not want to bet himself now that his EV (0.404) is less than 50% in this HU hand. Each bet that he now makes costs him money, e.g.

Pot = 5.25 BB and Hero wins the hand 2 times out of 5.

Looking at Sixth street in a vacuum.

Sixth street (no bets):

3 losses * 0 BB (additional investment) = 0 BB.
2 wins * 5.25BB pot = 10.5 BB. (10.5 BB - 0 BB = 10.5 BB)


Sixth street (one bet):

3 losses * 1 BB = 3 BB.
2 wins * 6.25 BB = 12.5 BB. (12.5 BB - 3 BB = 9.5 BB)


Sixth street (2 bets):

3 losses * 2 BB = 6 BB
2 wins * 7.25 BB = 14.5 BB (14.5 BB - 6 BB = 8.5 BB)

So while you still make money, you make less for each additional bet. SDM, does this make any more sense? I'm not a math person either.

Ray, I think this is what you were saying but just a different way of showing it.

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I wish it did greenage but I think I'll have to study it on my own further, and possibly take a primer in maths first.

Cheers though.

[RayGarlington]

[ QUOTE ]
Ray, I think this is what you were saying but just a different way of showing it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it is. Yet another way to think of it is: "how many bets can I make/call on this betting round and still have some of my original equity left?"