River line...

[jbrock]

Online NL$100 ($1bb)

Villains are SB ($400) and CO ($150) and I have $100. SB has laggish tendencies but is not that good. CO is a bit passive and seems to call too much. Neither is a solid player.

I open limp in about MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop ($4)
Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Dream boat flop. Checked all the way around. Figure I need to let people catch up.

Turn ($4)

Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
SB bets $4, BB folds, I call, CO calls.
It is clear that both the CO and I have a piece of this board, the SB could have bluffed given how the flop checked around.

River ($16)
Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
SB bets $15. Action is on me. I...


I have the second nuts here as only QQ is ahead and that hand is HIGHLY unlikely from what I know of these players. QQ would have been raised. SB would not limp with it and the CO would raise. SB clearly has a solid piece of this board. Unclear how strong CO is at this point. I am figuring one of them for the case J, hopefully J 10 or J 9 or J A.

What line as the most EV? How would you play this most fortunate of positions?

Cheers.

[amoeba]

that turn card is perfect and I would have raised it on the turn to inflate pot. JT is not getting away and neither is 89.
in fact any J will call there hoping to boat up most of the time.

on the river I like either pushing or raising to 50.

[jbrock]

The turn is very nice.

Against a solid player I would have raised on the turn looking to build a larger pot to play for. However, I figured it was 50/50 whether the SB was simply outright bluffing and if he was i wanted a continuation bluff river bet that i could snap off. I assumed the CO would fold behind me on the turn and when he called everything changed.

When the CO calls on the turn and then the SB leads for pot on the river, it is clear that both have hands here. SB is NOT bluffing. The only question is what approach is most likely to get all of the money in.

[directscooter]

This might be where I am leaking a few dollars, but I bet the flop, probably $3 - $4, making it look like I am pricing out a straight draw with my Q. If you get a caller or two the pot is already inflated to $12 - $16. Any normal flop bet is gonna make it $36 - $45 in the pot before the river... and you are in position to take his stack. Am I letting people drop too easily by playing it like this?

With your play, I raise it to $45ish....

[amoeba]

its hard to tell with these situations as when people fold to your flop bet you don't know if they had a draw, had a Q, or had nothing.

[djoyce003]

i'd make a solid raise, to 30, maybe 45 and pray i get reraised by some moron with a king..nobody is folding a jack or a king here....if you are really lucky someone is sitting on AK or J10 or something...i'd do my very best to get all the money in here.

[jbrock]

Was it in the Theory of Poker that it talks about slowplaying? Generally slowplaying is only a good strategy when the probability of getting outdrawn is very low. The only hands that potentially could outdraw me are AA, KK, AJ, and KJ. If anyone has one of those hand (and AA and KK are highly unlikely since everyone limped and no one could have been trying for a limp-reraise), AJ and KJ are the only hands that I could really fear and they are drawing to 2 outs. A lower pocket pair would need runner runner quads to outdraw my hand.

On the flop a bet of $3-4 might get folded out whereas if someone makes a straight later on they might call a raise since they would then beat naked trips.

My impression is that a hand like A Q is likely to call a turn bet after having it checked around the flop. For some reason people seem to be more secure at that point.

[directscooter]

Definitely a valid point, I very rarely slow play (quads is about it) so I get all worried when I see someone do it.

Slow play and you may leave a good amount of money on the table against a AQ or any J bad kicker, but take my advice and fire at it and you may get 0.... interesting. Probably something I need to think about a little more.

[unlucky513]

bet the flop. you have a monster hand, and you have jack sheet in the pot. you gotta build the pot!

[jbrock]

I was influenced by the threads I have been reading in the mid/high section over the last several months. Hands that will call a strong raise on this board will call a push. So I pushed.

After some deliberation, CO called and the SB called.

Hands:

CO (T T) for a lower boat.
SB (K 9) for the non-nut straight.

A fair number of suggestions in this thread have been to bet the flop. I disagree with that advice on this board given my hand. There is plenty of time to get the money in and if SB had not bet pot on the turn, i would have bet out $4-5. I doubt either of these hands would have called on the flop but they both managed to get good second-best hands that beat open trips.

Clearly both of their calls were poor as neither could beat J9, only open trips (or the straight for the CO).

If I had just raised to $40-50, I am sure that I would have just been called in both places and have left money on the table.

I thought this hand was interesting as it seems a classic slowplay is/was needed to let people catch up and the risk involved in doing that was very small. In retrospect, raising the turn WOULD have worked out well given their hands, but you play on your reads.