52s in the BB

[Brian462]

Party 25 NL 10 max

I don't have any individual reads, as a whole the tables seem to be a bit more aggressive than usual, but not by much.

I have 52s in the big blind and theres 2 limpers, and the SB completes. I check.

Flop is Jd 3d 7c - giving me a flush draw and I guess a backdoor straight draw.

The pot is about 2 so thats what I bet out. All 3 players call. With everyone calling I think the chance is very high that at least 1 of them is also on the flushdraw in which case mine is likely no good.

The turn is a Kc and the SB checks. I check, as do the 2 other players.

River is 7d giving me the flush but pairing the board. I am still worried that my flush isn't good, especially after all of them checked through the turn. SB checks, I check and MP checks. The last player bets 15 into about a 10 dollar pot. I fold.

Weak?

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

Eh... I would bet out and maybe fold to a raise???

[flawless_victory]

REALLY, REALLY TERRIBLE.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
REALLY, REALLY TERRIBLE.

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?????????????

[Tilt]

I think its weak. To be beat you have to either assume a higher flush hit or that someone with two pair slowplayed the turn. The latter makes no sense to me with a flush draw on the board. And its a low chance that there is a higher flush, worth the risk of a call of 15 to win a pot of 25.

I think two of your callers had J's and the third called with a 78. Trip sevens is trying to get a J to call, and feels confident no one would check a flush. I think you should call that down.

[schwza]

it's very unlikely MP is going for a c/r here, so i wouldn't worry about him. villain is playing this like 7x as well as a flush draw, and he might be trying to steal with no hand (although that would mean that he made an ill-advised call on the flop with a gutshot or that he stupidly is betting a hand like 88 that he should just check behind).

i'd call here and expect to be shown a J or a 7 more often than a FH/flush. but i've been trying to plug a leak of paying off too often on the river, so who knows.

[flawless_victory]

flush > 3 sevens. eeeeeeeeeeasy call at this level.
if you dont have the nuts, your hand wont be good every time... so what.

[TM1212]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its weak. To be beat you have to either assume a higher flush hit or that someone with two pair slow played the turn. The latter makes no sense to me with a flush draw on the board. And its a low chance that there is a higher flush, worth the risk of a call of 15 to win a pot of 25.

I think two of your callers had J's and the third called with a 78. Trip sevens is trying to get a J to call, and feels confident no one would check a flush. I think you should call that down.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is calling a 15 dollar raise to win a $25 pot in this hand in any way profitable???!!!! You only beat a stone cold bluff or trep 7's(which makes no senses cause the raise after the flop) or 34 of diamonds! With no read you have to fold all this hands beat you:
JJ, 33, KK, J7, 73, K7, or Any 2 suited diamonds except 34. A call here is very unprofitable, good fold.

But, you played the hand very poorly. Probably wont have bet the flop, but if I bet the flop, I would have bet the turn to get other flush draws to possibly fold, and to get information on other players hands.

[Brian462]

[ QUOTE ]
How is calling a 15 dollar raise to win a $25 pot in this hand in any way profitable???!!!! You only beat a stone cold bluff or trep 7's(which makes no senses cause the raise after the flop) or 34 of diamonds! With no read you have to fold all this hands beat you:
JJ, 33, KK, J7, 73, K7, or Any 2 suited diamonds except 34. A call here is very unprofitable, good fold.

But, you played the hand very poorly. Probably wont have bet the flop, but if I bet the flop, I would have bet the turn to get other flush draws to possibly fold, and to get information on other players hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that it really makes a difference but I had the nut-low flush since the 3d was on the board.

I bet the flop simply as a cheap way to try to take the pot down. I should have mentioned this in the first post but I had been taking down more pots than normal on the flop with bets like these so I was trying to increase the amount of semi-bluffs I made. Checking the flop is probably my normal play here with such a weak draw and position.

I think betting the turn after everyone calls is a waste of money. I would need to bet at least half of the pot with what I think is a very minute chance of taking it down, while very possibly drawing dead. I doubt that other flushdraws fold here unless I bet the pot or more, and even then at party 25 it isn't probable. IMO, any money I bet into the pot on the turn is very -EV.

We completely agree on the river. Flawless says the bet looks like a 7 wanting a jack to call. I think its much more likely a flush hoping a 7 will call. The only other strong possibility would be a bluff, which I don't think is likely enough to warrant a call.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
How is calling a 15 dollar raise to win a $25 pot in this hand in any way profitable???!!!! You only beat a stone cold bluff or trep 7's(which makes no senses cause the raise after the flop) or 34 of diamonds! With no read you have to fold all this hands beat you:
JJ, 33, KK, J7, 73, K7, or Any 2 suited diamonds except 34. A call here is very unprofitable, good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can go through life calling with only the nuts. It would be very boring and a much lower profit existence. But, I guess you won't lose much money!

All of the hands you listed barring the nut flush would require you to assume your opponent is slowplaying trips or top pair with a draw on the board. That is very poor play. Most players, believe it or not, are willing to make a bet with something less than a full boat. Its a definite call at this level.

Unadjusted hand probabilities have you as a 66% favorite after the river. Nothing in prior betting rounds leads me to want to adjust this, so does that river bet lead you to adjust this probability to the point where you now believe you have less than a 38% (15/40) chance of having the best hand?

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But, you played the hand very poorly. Probably wont have bet the flop, but if I bet the flop, I would have bet the turn to get other flush draws to possibly fold, and to get information on other players hands.

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The flop bet wasa a fine idea. You are about 1 in 3 to take down this hand with a flush at this point. If you get three callers, then, you are increasing EV. Even if you discount the fact that you may be up against a higher flush draw (who should raise with a K of diamonds) you still have the chance of getting the table to fold. Plus, you improve your implied odds by disguising your hand....leading a player with a 7 to now overbet the river. But I guess you since you wont call that down that was a waste. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Also, this flop bet increases the chance that you will get a free card on the turn, which is exactly what happened.

Its an awful idea to bet the turn. You now have a 1 in 5 chance of making a flush, discounted by the fact that there could be a higher flush draw out there is now about a 15% chance of winning the pot. - EV to bet

I might have even considered raising the river to get a 9 or 10 high flush to fold.