JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

[Elaboration]

FishMonger,

Fold pf. What are you looking to accomplish with a potenitally dominated hand oop?

Once to the flop, I dont like a push because I dont see what better hand folds in a $2 MTT.

Best-

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
FishMonger,

Fold pf. What are you looking to accomplish with a potenitally dominated hand oop?

Once to the flop, I dont like a push because I dont see what better hand folds in a $2 MTT.

Best-

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a strong draw here. You have to push. with a pair plus open ended, how do you determine what is a better hand.

[Elaboration]

Betgo,

I dont think the draw is that strong. You can't often say hero has 13 clean outs.

If we put villian on a generous range(Q8-QJ,KT-KQ,T9,99,AT-AJ), I think Hero needs more FE than he has to make this a push.
Though I could certainly be convinced otherwise.

[Elaboration]

Betgo,

Finally got around to this. I think a push here is spewing. Thoughts?

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 34.4735 % [ 00.30 00.05 ] { JTo }
Hand 2: 65.5265 % [ 00.61 00.05 ] { 99, AJs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-Q8s, J9s, T9s, AJo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-Q8o }

Fold JTo preflop. You are out of position with a drawing hand. This is not a good situation, since you cannot take too much heat with JTo when there is a lot of action.

Given the situation which you describe i would agree with betgo and push. You have a pair + a draw which is a strong holding. What is villain's range?
If he had a set I suppose that he wouldn't have raised immediately. QT, Q9 are fairly loose holdings in early position, altough he has 10k and the blinds are 300/600. The only reasonable holding which beats you is AQ. If he really has AQ you still have outs, so push.

[Elaboration]

[ QUOTE ]
What is villain's range?


[/ QUOTE ]

You gotta consider, this is a $2 mtt. There are many many limping hands that hit this flop.

[ QUOTE ]
The only reasonable holding which beats you is AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This just isnt true. You realize that QJ is a bigger favorite than AQ here, right?

I'm not absolute in saying a push is bad, but I need more than "I have pair+draw, must push"

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a strong draw here. You have to push. with a pair plus open ended, how do you determine what is a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not a strong draw when two pair puts 4 to the straight on the board. I'd give him credit for 10 outs and that's probably generous.

The call pre-flop is bad for exactly the reasons why you're having a tough time with this hand. Your out of position with a draw and can't figure out what to do. If you think you can steal the pot with a raise, okay. I doubt that'll work often enough at this buy-in to make it worthwhile. And if you're going to do that it really doesn't matter what you have. To me this is a clear fold 90% of the time or more.

Disclaimer: I've never played a $2 MTT so I'm not sure if this point is valid. But you make a 1/2 pot sized bet into a pretty draw heavy board after limping UTG. I'm not even sure I'd play AA/KK like that. Seems week to me and if I had chips I'd raise you with nothing.

I don't think you've got the pot odds to call. Even the implied odds aren't great as if you make your straight I think the action is dead. It's push or fold. If you push you're risking 8200 to win 13000. If you have 10 outs you're about 1.86 to 1 to improve by the river. You're not quite getting good enough odds so a fold is correct unless you think he'll fold to a push, which I don't.