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Old 07-15-2005, 03:02 AM
einbert einbert is offline
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Default Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

Okay so we have all seen the dumb "would you call all in with AA on the first hand of the WSOP" posts, and the answer to that problem is pretty damn obvious considering the massive +chipEV it means, and considering that you are basically going to _have_ to experience some positive variance to make it deep. Yeah, very easy problem.

It got me thinking, though, about another "first hand" situation. I really hope this isn't obvious, but it doesn't seem ridiculously obvious to me (though I am definitely leaning in one direction).

Let's say it is the first hand of the WSOP, which has a field of 6000 players, approximately 10% of which will cash, and based on the button position you have to post the T50 BB.

UTG looks down at his cards and immediately goes all in. It's folded to you but UTG for some reason turns over his hand, and he holds A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. You look down at your hole cards and find 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Is this a call or a fold?

My first instinct is that this is a clear call, you have an equity edge (53-47), you are going to need to get lucky to go deep, and you have a chance to immediately cover every one of your opponents at the table.

I then started thinking about something I read here once, I believe David said it, that "it means less to double up when you have an extremely large or extremely small stack". Well in this case your stack is exactly par with every other stack, _however_ in terms of the chips you are going to need to eventually cash, an extra 10k means very little. That factor might have some bearing on this decision, although it might not be enough to offset the fairly large +chipEV situation you get into by calling.

Again, I really hope the answer to this isn't obvious but I would like to hear some of you guy's opinions and the theory behind what is correct, and even whether you would call if it were an absolute coin flip with no dead money (so a 50% shot to double your stack at this point, a neutral EV but extremely high variance move). I believe the correct answer might have something to do with how large or small the field is, how deep/long the structure is (if this were a six month long tournament that starts each player with 1M BBs and drudges on with a very long structure the answer to this question might depend more on different factors), or other factors. I really want to hear what factors you think contribute to this decision, how much they weigh, and what you think the correct decision is.

Again, sorry if the question is dumb or the answer is obvious. It's not to me [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] (although ATM i am definitely leaning toward a call being correct).
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Old 07-15-2005, 03:10 AM
0evg0 0evg0 is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

Are you better than 53% of the field?
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Old 07-15-2005, 03:17 AM
einbert einbert is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

[ QUOTE ]
Are you better than 53% of the field?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is something of a factor, yes.

This surely can't be the whole story, though, can it?
Also, the way you are stating TEV can't be right, can it?
Suppose I'm a much much better player than 60% of the field, but the other 40% of the field is on average just a little better than me? Or maybe i'm just a little better than 60% of the field, but the other 40% is miles ahead of me in skill. Surely it has to be some weighted average.

Also, compare doubling up here and playing the WSOP 1/2 the time with a double chip stack right off the bat, to playing the WSOP twice with the same chips as everyone else each time? What is going to make you more money on average? There are effects of having a big chip stack here that actually increase your "edge versus the field", no?
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Old 07-15-2005, 03:24 AM
0evg0 0evg0 is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

Oh, I have no idea. I was just trying to be difficult.

Gut instinct, for what little that is worth, says I fold.
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Old 07-15-2005, 03:30 AM
BB_Specials BB_Specials is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

I fold. I can't risk my tournament life with pocket two's. I folded them in LP in an unraised pot usually.
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Old 07-15-2005, 03:46 AM
ClaytonN ClaytonN is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

Instead of thinking "I can't risk my life with pocket twos", think "I won't risk my life with a 53% advantage". This puts a perspective on things.
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Old 07-15-2005, 04:24 AM
ansky451 ansky451 is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

I think this is a much better question than the "should you fold aces" BS.
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Old 07-15-2005, 07:40 AM
Bataglin Bataglin is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

F O L D
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  #9  
Old 07-15-2005, 07:45 AM
Botch Gallegos Botch Gallegos is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

I fold and wait for better a better opportunity to get my stack allin as the blinds are still tiny compared to stack sizes and there is still plenty of time to put yourself in greater +ev positions. The only way I would make this call would be if i was sure I could use the extra 10k chips to push the table around to my advantage.
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  #10  
Old 07-15-2005, 09:27 AM
bobman0330 bobman0330 is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

Given how far you are from the bubble, I think this is a pretty straightforward call.
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