AKo on the bubble, on my chin I have stubble!

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
He needs to call 210 to win 400 + 200 + 100 = 700. You think he's not calling with a hugely wide range, given that it doesn't impact his stack in the slightest?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure big stack is calling 100% of hands, but trust me, he's not looking at the pot and calculating his pot odds.

[Kama45]

[ QUOTE ]

P.S. - just ran this in SNGPT's to confirm my suspicions...even if you give maniacal calling ranges to both big stacks, this is still a clear push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did your ICM calculation consider the small stack being all-in the next hand?

[ChoicestHops]

I dont like situations where there's a guy about to bust and you have a good hand here, but you have 2 BB. You should have been pushing and getting a stack much, much earlier here. I don't like trying to limp ITM - I play for first.

[ChoicestHops]

Tiger is right. Unless the guy is a complete donk he's going to call anything here, including 72o just to laugh if he were to knock him out with it.

[kyro]

Tough. It's gonna suck when shortie doubles up next hand and then gives you the finger. I fold here too, I guess. The nice thing is, worst case scenario, shortie doubles up to 350 next hand. After posting, you have 210 and he has 250, he'll hit blinds before you go bust again. Meh, I'm fine with it.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
***** Hand History for Game 2537996989 *****
200/400 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14853758) - Mon Aug 15 02:02:34 EDT 2005
Table Table 35331 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: Boston36 (2684)
Seat 7: devilsfanfox (4735)
Seat 9: popps1960 (171)
Seat 10: HunanBeef45 (410)
Boston36 posts small blind (100)
devilsfanfox posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HunanBeef45 [ Kh, Ac ]
popps1960 folds.
HunanBeef45 folds.
Boston36 folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 300
Boston36 balance 2584, lost 100 (folded)
devilsfanfox balance 4835, bet 200, collected 300, net +100
popps1960 balance 171, didn't bet (folded)
HunanBeef45 balance 410, didn't bet (folded)

[/ QUOTE ]

So...BB will call you roughly 100% of the time getting infinity to 1 on his pot odds. Against a random hand you win like 2/3 of the time, getting you to a whopping 1,020 chips (when HU against BB, sometimes SB will call and check you down, etc.). 1/3 of the time (actually, probably more since SB can jump in as well) you're knocked out. For risking this > 1/3 time 4th place, your reward is...you're still a distant 3rd place. Not worth it, since shorty is at a big disadvantage next hand. Easy fold.

BTW, part of the reason it's an easy fold (and why shorty is at a big disadvantage next hand), is that when you fold you have the option next hand of jumping in with a pretty wide range of hands, as shorty will forced all-in, and have to beat both you and any other player in the pot to not get knocked out in 4th (and even if shorty beats you, you still have a shot at a side pot).